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Introduction Society Energy Environment systems modelling

Introduction Society Energy Environment systems modelling. Mark Barrett Mark.Barrett@ucl.ac.uk UCL Energy Institute. SEE Introduction: Contents. Course outline History Thematic questions What are the objectives? What is the system for? How do we analyse systems? Energy What is it?

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Introduction Society Energy Environment systems modelling

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  1. IntroductionSocietyEnergy Environment systems modelling Mark Barrett Mark.Barrett@ucl.ac.uk UCL Energy Institute

  2. SEE Introduction: Contents • Course outline • History • Thematic questions • What are the objectives? • What is the system for? • How do we analyse systems? • Energy • What is it? • Conversion • Systems • Components & boundaries • Examples • Modelling

  3. Course outline

  4. SEE Introduction: Thematic questions • What is the energy for? • What is the system for? • What are the objectives and criteria of the system? • Energy, environment, economic, ethical, political • How do we analyse systems? • Modelling and data • The sociopolitical context of modelling • who sets questions, who pays?

  5. From renewable to finite: the first 13 billion years 13 billion years • big bang • particles and light • atoms • molecules • suns and planets 4.5 billion years: earth and sun formed

  6. From renewable to finite: from 4.5 billion years ago 4.5 billion years • Energy in the earth’s environment; • sun, wind, waves • tides • geothermal nuclear Renewable flows vary across minutes, hours, days and years

  7. From renewable to finite: 4 billion years agoLeviathan’s ancestors arrive - 4.5 billion years : Replicating molecules with some errors – evolution • Integration of chemical reproduction on larger scales • Carbon the great building block and energy vector • DNA – the carbon based ink in which life is written • Absorb energy from the environment to drive information reproduction The life cycle • Information creates a system that absorbs energy from environment to reproduce information with occasional errors that creates a new system Problem: most energy supplies not constant in time and space (except geothermal). • Living systems have to • reduce energy use when supplies are low; hibernate • store the energy from time of surplus to deficit; lay down seeds, tubers, fat • acquire energy; move to, collect and transport food.

  8. From renewable to finite: the last 4 billion years Leviathan’s ancestors evolve - 3.5 billion years : the first cells - 3 billion years : Life’s first energy revolution Photosynthesis to split carbon from oxygen Carbon stashed underground; the first global atmospheric catastrophe - oxygen - 1.3 billion years : modern eukaryotic cells – cells within cells - 0.8 billion years : multicellular organisms – cells living in communes - 0.5 billion years : plants, animals - 0.25 billion years : hot blood and mammals; first leap in energy intensity of demand - 0.005 billion years : hominids

  9. Homo sapiens • Energy and material demands • tissue formation and maintenance • keeping warm, keeping cool • movement • information processing • Energy from oxidising carbon in food, renewable biomass • Refined control systems to minimise energy and water consumption • Comfort is when energy and water consumption is minimised • Most exosomatic services (buildings, transport) designed to minimise endosomatic energy consumption, to achieve comfort – this is a basic driver of energy demand • e.g. 10% UK energy & emissions to keep warm air next to skin

  10. Leviathan appears • Leviathan : the social organism • Integration of larger numbers of people – multi multi cellular • Specialisation • Information storage • Extend body’s abilities with exosomatic technologies • Caves • Clothing • Tools, weapons • Energy (food) storage – living and dead • Leviathan’s energy supply revolutions • 50000 years: The first – agriculture. Allowed human settlements. • 5000 years: The second – animal power • 2000 years: The third – renewable energy (solar, wind, tidal) • 1000 years: The fourth - the discovery of the fossil carbon stores • The fifth revolution – back to the third – renewable energy

  11. Homo multicellulus – a life in boxes • ~98% of time in stationary or mobile boxes • Most services provided there: food, water, air, energy

  12. Homo multicellulus – a life in boxes

  13. Leviathan – community level • The community system designed to deliver essential resources (food, water) to inhabitants all year round. • Temporal: energy storage for the winter: grain stores, preserved meat, livestock • Spatial: minimise transport. • Water closest • Energy supply; horticulture near habitation, grazing/foraging more distant • Laxton Village from Mark Pierce's map of Laxton, 1635

  14. Leviathan – city level

  15. Leviathan today Leviathan’s diet • 50 times as much energy per person as direct human needs (UK) • Diet mainly finite fossil carbon fuels Problems with the diet Impending food shortage • Global stores of fossil carbon : • Oil, gas about 50 years reserves • Coal some centuries Global warming because of waste gases • Temperature rise of more than 2 C, or 0.2 C per decade, will devastate human and other ecosystems

  16. History of people and energy 0 to 1500 AD. Technological renewables -5000 to 0 AD. Agriculture, animals 1800 to 2010. First part of fossil era

  17. History and future of people and energy? 1950 to 2100. Transition fossil to renewable 1800 to 2300. . Transition fossil to renewable 0 to 2500. Renewable => fossil => renewable. Steady state humanity?

  18. What is energy? Energy can be used to • Move matter • Heat matter • Transform matter physically and chemically Energy is a calculated physical quantity; it cannot be directly measured.

  19. Energy laws

  20. Energy conversion • Heat engine efficiency (Carnot cycle) is maximum theoretical • Efficiency further limited by fluid dynamics, non-equilibrium, friction etc. etc.

  21. Energy and temperature • Quantity and temperature of energy important • Can cascade at ~100% efficiency from high to low temperature • Need heat engine at <100% efficiency going low to high

  22. The society, energy environment system Society’s energy service demands are met by energy systems which cause primary inputs to the environment. These inputs are modified and transported via media to impact on biota.

  23. Energy system components Demands: final energy consumption, some waste may be used Converters: from one energy form to another Transmission: from one place to another Stores: natural and artificial

  24. Energy, space and timeproblem What is the best configuration? What capacities? Where to locate converters and stores? Where to place transmission nodes?

  25. UK energy, space and timeillustrated with EST : animated

  26. Trade Animation shows trade model optimising for one period International transmission for the exchange of renewable electricity, enhances security and reduces costs, because: Different availabilities of low carbon energy sources Geographical dispersion benefits demand and renewable diversity • Possibility that the EU exchanges renewable electricity for gas from Russia etc. • Exchange of energy enhances security through co-dependency. • International transmission for the exchange of renewable electricity, enhances security and reduces costs

  27. World There are global patterns in demands and renewable supplies: • Regular diurnal and seasonal variations in demands, some climate dependent • Regular diurnal and seasonal incomes of solar energy • Predictable tidal energy income

  28. World: a global electricity transmission grid? • Should transmission be global to achieve an optimum balance between supply, transmission and storage? • Which investments are most cost efficient in reducing GHG emission? Should the UK invest in photovoltaic systems in Africa, rather than the UK? This could be done through the Clean Development Mechanism

  29. Leviathan’s future?

  30. National energy system

  31. Energy services

  32. Future UK demography Population forecasts change rapidly; latest higher growth because of more immigration and higher fertility Ageing population at least in the UK… How will the activities of people of different ages change? What sort of buildings and transport will we need for these activities?

  33. Future UK demography : households Households with different numbers of Adults (over and under 60), and Children Changing composition with ageing, wealth, economic activity, culture. Large increase in single person households Fraction of people in non-domestic residence increases with ageing (and students etc.)

  34. Modelling scope Scope • Physical; energy flow, temperatures, emissions • Economic; costs and prices

  35. Modelling simulation and optimisation Simulation • Representation of the behaviour of a system – static, dynamic, spatial Optimisation • Seeking best system configuration

  36. SEE Introduction: Some reading http://www.nordicenergyperspectives.org/modellrapport.pdf http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/sustainable-solutions/groups/esm-group/energy-system-modeling-group http://ukerc.rl.ac.uk/Landscapes/Modelling.pdf

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