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Current Market Conditions & How to React to Them AAII Cleveland, Oh, 11-8-2006

Current Market Conditions & How to React to Them AAII Cleveland, Oh, 11-8-2006. Dr. Gary J. Harloff, Ph.D. Harloff Capital Management, Money Management 815 Crocker Road, Suite D-10, Westlake, Oh 44145 www.harloffcapital.com, 440-871-7278. Harloff Capital, Harloff Inc.

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Current Market Conditions & How to React to Them AAII Cleveland, Oh, 11-8-2006

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  1. Current Market Conditions & How to React to ThemAAII Cleveland, Oh, 11-8-2006 Dr. Gary J. Harloff, Ph.D. Harloff Capital Management, Money Management 815 Crocker Road, Suite D-10, Westlake, Oh 44145 www.harloffcapital.com, 440-871-7278

  2. Harloff Capital, Harloff Inc. • Money management strategies - individuals & businesses. Fee-based no commissions. • Continuous Asset Allocation • At AAII WSFPG 8-28-06, called 7-06 NDX low; NDX up 8.5% 8-28 to 11-3 • New original models, not available on Wall St. or Main St., research since 1970

  3. What forces are acting on economy and stock market? • 2006 GDP growth slowed from 5 to 1.6%/year, >0 • Fed raised Fed funds rate to 5.25%, on hold now • 10 year notes at 4.72%, 30 year notes at 4.81% • Yield curve slightly inverted: recession worry • Large deficit spending: international investing in US long bonds push long rates down • GDP is 70% consumer spending: consumer housing weakening

  4. S&P500 P/E not expensive

  5. Vix- implied volatility of SP100 Affects markets like turbulence affects airplanes

  6. Where is the Rydex trading money investing? • Bear funds decreasing • Energy $ increasing • Big cap and Small cap $

  7. Harloff Newsletter indicates Small Cap beating Big Cap

  8. Harloff computer model results What is the current investment outlook? • 11 3 2006 TIKER nav HCM1 l-gn b/s last date • ProFunds INV:Ultra Sect PMPIX 42.24 3.45 15.95 B 10 5 2006 • Rydex INV:Precious Meta RYPMX 53.81 2.94 13.81 B 10 5 2006 • ProFunds INV:UltraSecto ENPIX 39.13 2.35 9.03 B 9 27 2006 • S. Africa EZA 102.98 2.31 11.75 B 9 27 2006 • ProFunds INV:UltraSecto WCPIX 18.96 1.98 21.07 B 8 25 2006 • ProFunds INV:Basic Mate BMPIX 43.41 1.80 9.04 B 9 18 2006 • Rydex INV:Energy Servic RYVIX 42.83 1.79 8.02 B 10 2 2006 • ProFunds INV:UltraSecto INPIX 83.90 1.74 25.49 B 8 2 2006 • Rydex INV:Energy/231 RYEIX 22.08 1.68 6.51 B 9 28 2006 • Brazil EWZ 42.90 1.65 12.57 B 9 19 2006 • Spain EWP 50.56 1.59 25.46 B 6 15 2006 • Scudder Latin America-S SLAFX 58.59 1.37 12.01 B 9 12 2006 • Rydex INV:Basic Materia RYBIX 36.20 1.20 9.33 B 7 31 2006 • emerging mk 50 ADRE 34.64 1.18 9.83 B 9 12 2006

  9. How can Harloff Capital help you? • Free investment talks to other groups • Free stuff on web www.harloffcapital.com • Free consultation to manage money • Harloff Inc. publishes a newsletter • 815 Crocker Road, Suite D-10 • Westlake, Oh 44145 • 440-871-7278

  10. Conclusions • Market may be in transition or may alternate between US index leaders and alternate (see below) • Energy, metals, materials, and emerging markets are alternate investment candidates now • NDX100 low July ‘06 • S&P500 P/E not expensive • Large investors coming back into market • US bull market not over

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