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Introduction to Debt Markets

Introduction to Debt Markets. Bonds vs. Stocks In the Rearview Mirror Sources of Risks Debt Classes. Bonds vs. Stocks. Sizing Bond (2009) and Stock Markets (Q3 2008). $34.3 T. $14.1 T. Rearview Mirror. Rearview Mirror. Why Bonds?. Bonds form an important asset class

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Introduction to Debt Markets

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  1. Introduction to Debt Markets Bonds vs. Stocks In the Rearview Mirror Sources of Risks Debt Classes

  2. Bonds vs. Stocks • Sizing Bond (2009) and Stock Markets (Q3 2008) $34.3 T $14.1 T

  3. Rearview Mirror

  4. Rearview Mirror

  5. Why Bonds? • Bonds form an important asset class • Sources of risk and return in bonds • Interest rate risk • Reinvestment risk • Default risk • When liabilities are fixed in nominal terms, investing in suitably chosen bond portfolios may lead to lower risk • May not be necessary to consider all asset classes and use mean variance optimization methods • Bond mispricing may arbitrage opportunities for an active portfolio manager

  6. Issuers of Bonds • U.S. Treasury • Notes and Bonds • Municipalities • Tax-Exempt Bonds • Corporations • Corporate Bonds, Preferred Stock • International Governments and Corporations • Innovative Bonds • Indexed Bonds • Floaters and Reverse Floaters

  7. Source of Risks • Interest Rate Risk (Market Risk) • The major factor affecting bond prices • The price of bond changes in the opposite direction of interest change • All bonds are exposed • Inflation Risk • Inflation reduces purchasing power • Yield changes to reflect the expected inflation • Reinvestment Risk • No guarantees that coupon payments could be reinvested at the same rate

  8. Source of Risks • Credit Risk • Inability of issuer to pay coupon and/or principal • Corporate, Emerging market and high-yield bonds • Credit linked debt securities, credit derivatives • Liquidity Risk • Inability to unload position without substantial loss • Municipal, Corporate, and Emerging market bond • FX Risk • The risk of exchange rate fluctuation in reducing the return on a foreign bond

  9. Debt Classes: Definition • Bond (Fixed Income Security) • A security obligating issuer to pay interest and principal to the holder on specified dates. • Coupon Interest rate, e.g. 4%, 5 3/4%, etc. • Face/par value or Principal amount, e.g. $100 MM, $3B. • Maturity, e.g. 3 month, 1 year, 30 years, etc. • Bond can be classified according to its attributes • Payment type, e.g. semi-annual coupon, amortizing, etc. • Issuer, e.g. government, agency, corporate, etc. • Maturity, e.g. short, medium, long, etc. • Security, e.g. secured, unsecured debenture, etc.

  10. Debt Classes: Payment Type • Pure Discount or Zero-Coupon Bond • No coupon payments prior to maturity. • Bond’s face value paid at maturity. • Coupon Bond • A stated coupon paid periodically prior to maturity. • Bond’s face value paid at maturity. • Perpetual (Consol) Bond • A stated coupon paid at periodic intervals. • Self-Amortizing Bond • Certain amount paid at each payment period. • No balloon payment at maturity.

  11. Debt Classes: U.S.Treasuries • Treasury Bills • maturity  1 year when issued • typically 3 months and 6 months • pure discount bond, no coupon • Treasury Notes • Maturity: 1 year  maturity  10 years when issued • Typically, 2, 3, 5, and 10 year • Coupon: semi-annual • Treasury Bonds • Maturity: >10 years when issued • Typically, 20, 30 (last issued Feb 15, 2001) • Coupon: semi-annual

  12. Debt Classes: U.S.Treasuries • Treasury STRIPS are zero-coupon securities that are made by “stripping” coupons or principals from Government Notes and Bonds. • Treasury Strips are issued under the U.S. Treasury STRIPS (Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities) program. • Prices of Notes, Bonds, and STRIPS are quoted as prices per $100 of face value. Prices of Bills are quoted in terms of rate of discount.

  13. Debt Classes: Corporate Bonds • Secured Debt (backed by collateral assets) • Secured by real property • Property reverts to bondholder upon default • Subordinate Debenture • General creditors subordinate to secured debt • Higher priority over stockholders • Other Features of corporate bonds • Convertible bonds: convertible to equity • Callable bonds: issuer’s right to buys back bond • Putable bonds: holder’s right to sell bond to issuer • Sinking funds: reduced face amount over time

  14. Corporate Bonds – Default Risk • One of the biggest differences between Corporate Bonds and U.S. Treasury Bonds is the default risk on corporate bonds • Corporate bonds are rated on the basis of their default risk by a few rating companies

  15. Factors Used by Rating Companies • Coverage ratios • Leverage ratios • Liquidity ratios • Profitability ratios • Cash flow to debt • Effects of bond covenants • Moody’s acquired KMV to use option pricing theory to rate corporate bonds

  16. Corporate Bonds – Default Ratings Rating Companies • Moody’s Investor Service • Standard & Poor’s • Fitch Rating Categories • Investment grade • Aaa, Aa, A, Baa by Moody’s ratings • AAA, AA, A, BBB by S&P ratings • Speculative grade or “Junk” bonds • Rated below Baa by Moody’s and BBB by S&P

  17. Debt Classes: Corporate Bonds • Credit Rating

  18. Average One-Year Credit Loss Rates Source: “Credit Derivatives” by E. Banks, P. Siegel, M. Glantz; McGraw-Hill, 2006

  19. Ratings and Average Time to Default Source: “Credit Derivatives” by E. Banks, P. Siegel, M. Glantz; McGraw-Hill, 2006

  20. Mean and Median Recovery Rates Source: “Credit Derivatives” by E. Banks, P. Siegel, M. Glantz; McGraw-Hill, 2006

  21. Protection Against Default • Sinking funds • Subordination of future debt • Dividend restrictions • Collateral

  22. Bond Provisions • Call Provision allows the issuer to repurchase the bond at a specified call price before the maturity date • Put Provision allows a bondholder to reclaim a principal, or to extend bond’s life • Convertible Provision allows a bondholder to exchange a bond for common stock • Typically are callable as well • Secured Bonds have specific collaterals for bonds • Sinking Funds guarantee gradual repurchase of corporate bonds by the issuer • Floating Rate Bonds have interest payments tied to some measure of current market rates

  23. Comparing Bonds – On the Importance of Fine Print • Yield is useful for comparing similar bonds to see if which bond may be cheaper • Detailed analysis focuses on bonds identified this way: • “Similar” • Cash flows • Duration • Credit risk • Call, Put, Conversion and other provisions

  24. “Similar” Bonds Example Two U.S. Treasury bonds of same maturity from July 1, 2004 WSJ: The first bond has a coupon rate of 4.75%, and yields 4.56% The second bond has a coupon rate of 13.25%, and yields only 3.71% (!!!) The difference is that the second bond is CALLABLE!!! It was issued as a 30yr bond in May of 1984, and is callable at par value in 25 years, i.e. in May of 2009 Now it is almost 100% certain that it will be called, hence it now trades as bond maturing in 2009:

  25. Bond Provisions • Bond provisions may alter the structure of cash flows, affecting bond prices and yields • Call Provision allows the issuer to repurchase the bond at a specified call price before the maturity date Relationship between Interest Rate and Callable Bond Price

  26. Yield to Call • Bonds are most likely to be called when their price exceeds the call price • It implies that premium bonds will be called at the earliest date when the bond becomes callable • Hence yield quoted in WSJ for callable premium bonds is in fact yield to call (recall previous example)!!! • Example of cash flows difference for a callable bond: A 30yr bond with 8% coupon sells for $115, and is callable in 10 years at par

  27. Debt Classes: Municipal Bonds • Municipal Bonds • Maturity varies from one month to 40 years • Exempt from federal taxes and state taxes (for residents of issuing state) • Generally two types: • Revenue bonds • backed by the revenue of a particular project • e.g. water bond • General Obligation bonds • backed by the tax revenue of local government • e.g. school bond • Riskier than U.S. Government bonds

  28. Source of Risks – Foreign Bonds

  29. Bond Resources • www.bondmarkets.com • www.investinginbonds.com • bonds.yahoo.com • PIMCO • Lehman Brothers Bond Indices • Bloomberg Bond Rates • Live Market Analysis on Bonds and Related Topics

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