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Agenda For this Evening

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Agenda For this Evening

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Agenda For this Evening Introduction Hawktrade goals Market performance recap Future upcoming events Where is market going?

  3. New Leadership • Weekly Meeting Room • Membership Dues • T-shirts • Website

  4. HawkTrade 2012-2013 Goals • Overall Learning Environment • Membership retention • Hawktrade portfolio • Discussion atmosphere, member involvement • Volunteering efforts • Continuing pursuit of success

  5. 5 yr. market Summary Overall, markets up near all time highs, but some questions as to how “real” this market is. Low trading volume, high unemployment remain. Housing still flat Bond prices at historic lows.

  6. What moves markets now? • Presidential Election • Unemployment, tax code, general direction of economy. • U.S. Fiscal Cliff • Will Bush tax cuts run out? • Fed QE3? • Europe Debt Crisis • Will Eurozone fall apart • China hard landing?

  7. August Jobs Report Analysis

  8. Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Employment Situation

  9. 5 Year Employment Trend

  10. Market Performance in first 4 years of Presidents Term 1900-present

  11. Fiscal Cliff Coming • Bush tax cuts expire • Automatic, across the board spending cuts of 1 trillion dollars. • Set to take effect Jan 1st • CBO projects unemployment will jump to 9% and GDP will slow .5%

  12. What's this Quantitative Easing?? • Monetary policy used by Central Bank (Fed) to help stimulate the economy

  13. Effects of QE1 and QE2

  14. Bernanke selloff/rally 8/31 Bernanke Speaks At Jackson Hole Friday Markets rally after he indicates QE3 could be on the way Initial decline from Bernanke indecision

  15. Time for a Historic Selloff?

  16. Chart of the Week

  17. Volatility and the Markets +0.51% -2.20%

  18. Volatility VS. S&P 500

  19. Short term Game plan

  20. A look Ahead to September Still many Economic “shoes” to Drop • Sept 12th- FOMC meeting- Is QE3 starting? • Further ECB Bond Buying New • China Details

  21. Ways to play the market Bullish • FAS (3X fin.) • ULG (2x Gold) • UST ( 7-10 yr bonds) • UPRO ( S&P 500 2X) Bearish • FAZ (3x Fin.) • GLL (2x Gold) • TYO ( 7-10 yr. bonds) • SPXU (S&P 500 3X)

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