1 / 43

Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities .

Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities . Economic Development Forum. Cummings Economics. Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009. A YEAR OF. STRONG CHANGES A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SOME FEAR. Cummings Economics / July 2009. NORTHERN AUSTRALIA RES POPULATION GROWTH 2007/08.

finnea
Download Presentation

Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities .

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities. Economic Development Forum Cummings Economics Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009

  2. A YEAR OF • STRONG CHANGES • A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY • SOME FEAR Cummings Economics/July 2009

  3. NORTHERN AUSTRALIA RES POPULATION GROWTH 2007/08 CITIES REGIONS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  4. TABLELANDS ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTHAV.ANNUAL INTERCENSAL GROWTH 1986-2006 + 2006/07 & 2007/08 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  5. TABLELAND MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES Source: Cummings Economics from RP Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  6. TABLELANDS BUILDING APPROVALSNUMBER OF DWELLINGS * Estimate based on 11 months to May 2009 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  7. % Drop in building approvals 3 months Mar / Apr / May 2009 on same period previous year. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  8. INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS RECEIVING NEWSTART & YOUTH ALLOWANCES Source: Cummings Economics from DEEWR Labour Market & Related Payments Monthly Profile Cummings Economics/July 2009

  9. POPULATION • NO MASS EXODUS • PROBABLY STILL HOLDING GROWTH Cummings Economics/July 2009

  10. TABLELAND ECONOMY HOLDING UP WELL SOME NEGATIVES BUT ALSO POSITIVES Cummings Economics/July 2009

  11. MINERAL SALES – FAR NORTH Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland Department of Mines and Energy Cummings Economics/July 2009

  12. MINERAL PRICES Cummings Economics/July 2009

  13. MINING AFFECTED • WOLFRAM CAMP • CHILLAGOE • WATERSHED • NORNICO • COPPER STRIKE • WEIPA • OTHERS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  14. CONSUMER SPENDING NEGATIVE • WEALTH DOWN • SOME LOSS OF INCOME • UNCERTAINTY • SAVING MORE, BORROWING LESS POSITIVE • POPULATION GROWTH • LOWER INTEREST RATES, PETROL & INFLATION • GOVERNMENT STIMULUS (About $25m) Cummings Economics/July 2009

  15. TOURISM RESOURCES - TOURISM GROWTHCAIRNS AIRPORT PASSENGER MOVEMENTS (Excluding international transits) Source: Cummings Economics from CPA & Cairns Airports Cummings Economics/July 2009

  16. ESTIMATED VALUE OF OUTPUT OF MAIN AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES TABLELANDS 2008 Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland DEEDI (Primary Industries) Cummings Economics/July 2009

  17. TABLELANDS BUILDING APPROVALS * Includes Lotus Glen full value. Without Lotus Glen about $120m. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  18. POPULATION – QUEENSLAND REMOTE REGIONS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  19. POPULATION – TABLELANDS & REMOTE 2008 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  20. TROPICAL TABLELANDS | GULF SAVANNAH | TORRES STRAITSWESTERN CAPE | EASTERN CAPE | COOKTOWN DISTRICTGREAT BARRIER REEF | WORLD HERITAGE RAINFORESTS | SAVANNAH WOODLANDS

  21. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT PHASES LEADING IMPETUS Late 1800’s to WW1 • MINING __________________________________________________ WW1 TO 1960’s • AGRICULTURE __________________________________________________ 1970’S to 1990’S • TOURISM __________________________________ Cummings Economics/July 2009

  22. TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ACTION THAT WAS NEEDED • AN EFFECTIVE MARKETING ORGANISATION • AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE • APPLIED TECHNOLOGY Cummings Economics/July 2009

  23. CURRENT NEW MAJOR UNDERLYING FACTORS • EMERGENCE OF BRIC* ECONOMIES • CLIMATE CHANGE * Brazil, Russia, India, China Cummings Economics/July 2009

  24. CHANGING BALANCE OF OPPORTUNITIES • TOURISM • MINING • BIO INDUSTRIES Cummings Economics/July 2009

  25. TOURISM NEED TO MAINTAIN & GROW AS POSSIBLE • GREY NOMADS • OUTSIDE CNS / KURANDA / DOUGLAS TRIANGLE • NEW AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGY Cummings Economics/July 2009

  26. TOURISM SUPPRESSING FACTORS • NO LONGER “SUNRISE” INDUSTRY DEVELOPED ENCONOMIES • SUBDUED GROWTH DEVELOPED ECONOMIES • HIGH CARBON FUEL PRICES • AUST. DOLLAR HIGH / COMMODITY PRICES • CHINA / INDIA INCOMES STILL NOT HIGH Cummings Economics/July 2009

  27. OTHER OPPORTUNITIES NEWLY INDUSTRIALISING COUNTRIES MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR • MINERALS • AGRICULTURAL & FOREST PRODUCTS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  28. . Cummings Economics/July 2009

  29. . Cummings Economics/July 2009

  30. MINERAL PRICES Cummings Economics/July 2009

  31. INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS • CAIRNS & MOURILYAN SEAPORTS • KURANDA & PALMERSTON HIGHWAYS • THE RAIL LINE TO CAIRNS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  32. INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS CAPE – WEIPA / AURUKUN • BIGGER PORT • PENINSULA DEVELOPMENTAL ROAD GULF NORTHWEST PROVINCE • KURUMBA SEAPORT CONSTRAINTS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  33. BIO INDUSTRIES • DECLINING RAINFALL – SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA • UNUSED WATER RESOURCES IN THE NORTH • RISING WORLD DEMAND FOR FOOD & FIBRE • DEMAND FOR BIOFUELS & BIOINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  34. BIO INDUSTRIAL IMMEDIATE • CO GENERATION FROM BAGASSE ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NEXT STEP • ETHANOL FROM SUGAR SYRUP / MOLASSES (KEY TABLELAND ROLE – INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ FURTHER STEP • ETHANOL FROM BAGASSE (KEY TABLELAND ROLE) Cummings Economics/July 2009

  35. BIO INDUSTRIAL OTHER STRAND • BIO DIESEL CROPS www.burmanbioenergy.com www.millettiaplantations.com www.jatrophacurcasplantations.com Cummings Economics/July 2009

  36. BIO INDUSTRIAL BIO REFINERIES • BIO PLASTICS • PHARMACEUTICALS • NUTRACEUTICALS etc. PROPOSAL TO SELLQUEENSLANDTO GLOBAL PLAYERS AS A LOCATIONTO SUPPLY ASIA / PACIFIC Cummings Economics/July 2009

  37. BIO INDUSTRIAL THIS REGIONS COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE • UNDERLYING PLANT GROWTH POTENTIAL • RANGE OF FEED STOCKS – SUGAR PLUS OTHERS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  38. PLANT GROWTH POTENTIAL Cummings Economics/July 2009

  39. OTHER AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES • CEREALS, PULSES, COTTON • NEW INTEREST IN WATER STORAGES • ECO BANANA EXPORTS • CONTAINER TRADE (MINERAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, FORESTRY PRODUCTS) Cummings Economics/July 2009

  40. FORESTRY • APPROX 13,000ha PUBLIC (to be sold) • APPROX 11,000ha PRIVATE (SPECIES SUITABLE FOR WET / DRY AREAS) • IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Cummings Economics/July 2009

  41. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE • HANN HIGHWAY – ROUTE DIRECT TO SOUTH(150km ONLY WILL BE LEFT OUT OF 266km) • PENINSULA DEVELOPMENTAL ROAD Cummings Economics/July 2009

  42. CONCLUSION • A NEW RANGE OF OPPORTUNITIES DEVELOPING • TABLELANDS CAPE & GULF IN THE FOREFRONT • VITAL TO REMOTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  43. Cummings Economics Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities. 38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870Ph: 40312888 | Email: cummings@cummings.net.au | Fax: 40311108 Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009www.cummings.net.au Economic Development Forum

More Related