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Naming the top three pitching assets in baseball

Naming the top three pitching assets in baseball. Katie Gonzales Shane Williams Austin Overmann Nick Klein Megan Tews. Our top three. 2. 1. 3. Overview. Process of Selection Projection Model Performance Forecast Valuation Methodology Assessment of Risk. Process of selection.

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Naming the top three pitching assets in baseball

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  1. Naming the top three pitching assets in baseball Katie Gonzales Shane Williams Austin Overmann Nick Klein Megan Tews

  2. Our top three 2 1 3

  3. Overview • Process of Selection • Projection Model • Performance Forecast • Valuation Methodology • Assessment of Risk

  4. Process of selection

  5. Starting the evaluation • What we initially looked at: • Past statistics and trends • Concerns with player makeup • How it was narrowed down: • Players 30+ years old were cut • Players with high dollar contracts were cut • Players with little to no team control were cut • Players recently sustaining major injuries were cut

  6. CONTINUING the evaluation

  7. Projection model

  8. Approach to developing projections • Determined what metrics were most important in evaluating pitching talent • Including: FBv, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP, SwStr%, BABIP • Then create a metric valuing the above metrics to compare players’ “talent” • Then applied the age curve to measure how the “talent” would change during their control years

  9. Performance projection • Make a “comparison” statistic similar to Bill James’ similarity score to determine similar players • Ran through players from 2002-2013 using a metric that valued these pitching qualities: K/9, BB/9, GB%/FB%, FIP and BABIP • This metric was on a scale of about 120 – 220 with some outliers • Then use those players and average their change over six years and apply to the player that they were similar to

  10. First Results

  11. Looking at war

  12. Performance forecast

  13. Jose Fernandez

  14. Jose Fernandez

  15. Chris sale

  16. Chris Sale

  17. Comparing #1 and #2 • Minuscule difference • Basic and advanced statistics • Present value versus future value

  18. Madison bumgarner

  19. Madison Bumgarner

  20. Comparing #2 and #3 • Significant gap • Present value is the downfall • Substantial difference in WAR

  21. Translating performance into dollars

  22. salary

  23. Surplus value

  24. Valuation methodology

  25. Salary prediction • Impossible to estimate arbitration salary • Similar pitchers receiving extensions • Fernandez salary projection: 3 year 33 Million • 2016: $10M • 2017: $11M • 2018: $12M

  26. Assessment of risk

  27. Jose Fernandez • Risk Factor: High • Why it’s risky: • He only has one year of service in the MLB • There is a high flame out rate for pitchers • What we believe: • Jose Fernandez will have a very successful career • Rebuttal: • Jose had one of the best rookie pitching seasons of all-time

  28. Chris Sale • Risk Factor: Moderate • Why it’s risky: • Chris Sale’s arm action and body type could lead to injuries in the future • What we believe: • Chris Sale is going to continue to be the #2 LHP in baseball behind Clayton Kershaw • Rebuttal: • Sale hasn’t had any injury problems since breaking into the majors

  29. Madison Bumgarner • Risk Factor: Low • Why it’s risky: • He’s thrown a high number of innings (614.1 IP) at a very young age (21 through 23) in his 3 full Major League seasons • What we believe: • Bumgarner, much like Sale will continue to be one of the best lefties in the game • Rebuttal: • Bumgarner has improved in each of his MLB seasons and hasn’t shown any signs of wear and tear

  30. Player makeup

  31. Jose Fernandez • Vocally intense • Fiery • “Mound presence and makeup are off the charts” – Juan Rodriguez, Miami-Sun Sentinel

  32. Chris Sale • Stays calm while pitching • Left Handed • “Strong mental makeup” – Rick Hahn, Chicago White Sox General Manager

  33. Madison bumgarner • Competitive • Even-Tempered • Left Handed • “His makeup is off the charts” – Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants Manager

  34. conclusion

  35. Conclusion • Starting Pitcher Rating • Surplus value • Sustainability

  36. References • Fangraphs. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.fangraphs.com/ • Petti, B. (2012, May 2). Pitcher aging curves: Starters and relievers. Retrieved from http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-aging-curves-starters-and-relievers/ • Baseball reference. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.baseball-reference.com/ • Silver, N. (2007). Pecota under the hood. Nate Silver, Baseball Prospectus, Retrieved from https://www.google.com/search?q=Nate Silver ppt&oq=Nate Sil&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j69i57j0l3.3411j0j4&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8​

  37. Objection • Starting Pitcher Rating dropped over years of contact. • Ended at 69.38 in 2018

  38. Objection – Part 2 Both have roughly a 28% increase in ERA and 17% increase in WHIP from age 25 to 26

  39. Objection • 6 Million Per Marginal Win (WAR) • 5% Inflation from previous year • Example-(4*6,000,000)*.05+Previous Year Surplus Value

  40. Objection • Justin Verlander 5 year $80 Million • Age 27 • Felix Hernandez 5 year $78 Million • Age 24 • Larger markets than Miami

  41. Objection

  42. Objection • Likely not playing in 2014 season • Unknown recovery • Kris Medlen 2nd surgery • Brian Wilson • Adam Wainwright • Jordan Zimmerman • Limiting risk

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