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HKU CONVOCATION HONG KONG 2030 FORUM

HKU CONVOCATION HONG KONG 2030 FORUM. ON POPULATION: Fertility Decline, Mobility and Diversity by Wong Siu-lun Centre of Asian Studies The University of Hong Kong 21 February 2004. HONG KONG’S DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR NEEDS.

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HKU CONVOCATION HONG KONG 2030 FORUM

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  1. HKU CONVOCATION HONG KONG 2030 FORUM ON POPULATION: Fertility Decline, Mobility and Diversity by Wong Siu-lun Centre of Asian Studies The University of Hong Kong 21 February 2004

  2. HONG KONG’S DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR NEEDS • Fertility decline — extremely low total fertility rate of 927 children per 1,000 women in 2001 • Long life expectancy — projected to reach 82 for men and 88 for women in 2031 • Aging — a quarter of the population expected to be aged 65 or above by 2031 • Shrinking workforce — prime working age population declines • Rapid demographic transition — compressed in less than 50 years

  3. Total Fertility Rates of Hong Kong and Selected Low Fertility Economies, 2000 Hong Kong 1,020 Singapore 1,600 Japan 1,340* Germany 1,360* Denmark 1,770 Netherlands 1,720 Finland 1,730 Sweden 1,540 United Kingdom 1,640 Australia 1,750* Note: * 1999 figure Source: Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Population Projections 2002-2031, p. 53.

  4. Policy response in 2003 • Formulated by task force head by Chief Secretary • Not the specific responsibility of any bureau or department

  5. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS — The One Way Permit Scheme — Training and Other Needs of New Arrivals — Education and Manpower Policy — Admission of Mainland Professionals and Talent — Investment Immigrants — Policies Impacting on Childbirth — Elderly Policy — Growing Transient Population: Foreign Domestic Helpers — Eligibility for Public Benefits — Portability of Benefits — Need for Regular Review

  6. HONG KONG: A HUB FOR LABOUR MIGRATION • Hong Kong has long been a city of migrants • Emigration of Chinese from Hong Kong began as soon as the territory became a British colony in 1842 • By 1939, over 6 million Chinese left Hong Kong to go to every part of the world • Main destinations: United States; Australia; Canada; South America and West Indies; Peru & Cuba; Dutch Possessions; Strait Settlements; Hawaii & Mauritius; British North Borneo; South Africa (E. Sinn 1995 ) • Hong Kong: key economic centre for the overseas Chinese • Intense traffic in people, remittances and information

  7. INFLOW OF POPULATION • Illegal immigrants from the Chinese mainland — 150,089 in 1980; abolition of ‘touch base policy’; decreased to 12,170 in 1999. • Legal immigrants from the Chinese mainland — 150 a day or 55,000 per year • Skilled immigrants — about 16,700 foreign professional admitted each year from 1997 to 2001; only 268 mainland professionals admitted from 2001 to 2002. • Foreign domestic workers — 21,517 in 1982; 237,104 in 2002. • Imported workers — 1,200 admitted under supplementary labour scheme • Increased use of Hong Kong as transit port to other countries (Chin Kong 2003)

  8. Effect of Migration on Population Projection

  9. Mobility and Dynamism • Migration and entrepreneurship • Inflow of Shanghai entrepreneurs to Hong Kong in 1940s (Wong 1988) • Small industrial entrepreneurs in 1970s and 1980s were mostly immigrants • Decreased immigration and declining entrepreneurship? • SME in Japan: Regeneration and creation of entrepreneurial society

  10. Place of Birth of Entrepreneurs

  11. Diversity and Cosmopolitanism • 2001 Population Census — only 5% non-ethnic Chinese • This 5% comprised mainly of Filipinos, Indonesians and nationals of Southeast Asian origin • 95% ethnic Chinese — diverse migration experience • Not quite multi-ethnic, but rather multi-cultural • Linkages to overseas Chinese communities — to be strengthened? • Increased mobility — who is a Hong Konger? • Citizenship — rights and obligations; tax revenue

  12. Thank You

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