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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS AND THEIR POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO CAPACITY BUILDING IN LATIN AND CARIBBEAN AMERICA

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS AND THEIR POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO CAPACITY BUILDING IN LATIN AND CARIBBEAN AMERICA. Rick Lawford December 1, 2009 Lima, Peru. Global Change Research Programmes. IGBP: International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. WCRP: World Climate Research Programme.

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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS AND THEIR POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO CAPACITY BUILDING IN LATIN AND CARIBBEAN AMERICA

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  1. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS AND THEIR POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO CAPACITY BUILDING IN LATIN AND CARIBBEAN AMERICA Rick Lawford December 1, 2009 Lima, Peru

  2. Global Change Research Programmes IGBP: International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme WCRP: World Climate Research Programme IHDP: International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change DIVERSITAS ESSP: Earth System Science Partnership The Earth System Science Partnership is a partnership of four global change research programmes for the integrated study of the Earth System, the changes that are occurring to the System and the implications of these changes for global sustainability. www.ess-p.org

  3. Mission & Objectives WCRP World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and planning adaptation to climate change by developing science required to improve • climate predictions and • our understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

  4. THE GEWEX MISSION CAN BE DESCRIBED AS “THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF PLANETARY EARTH SCIENCE, OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS TO THE PROBLEMS OF CLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES” • THE PROJECT INCLUDES: • - GLOBAL DATA SETS DERIVED FROM SATELLITE DATA, IN SITU • DATA AND DATA ASSIMILATION CAPABILITIES, • - MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND PREDICTABILITY STUDIES • FIELD AND PROCESS STUDIES • APPLICATIONS

  5. Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project Convergence of Observations A Prototype of the Global Water Cycle Observation System of Systems

  6. REFERENCE SITE GOOGLE EARTH (.KMZ) FILE

  7. Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHPs) MAHASRI

  8. LPB Main research areas Improvement of models’ representation of Land surface-atmosphere interactions Land surface contributions to predictability Develop coupled models at adequate resolutions for hydrologic purposes Better estimates of MCS precipitation Climate change scenarios Impacts on the system’s hydrology

  9. AMMA: An integrated regional project • Multiscale Approach

  10. The Canadian Drought Research Initiative is the primary activity under GEWEX Extremes St. Jean de Baptiste, Manitoba July 2005 THE DRI APPROACH TO EXTREMES HAS FOCUSED ON CASE STUDIES TO GAIN BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROCESSES RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTREME EVENTS. • THIS APPROACH INVOLVES EXAMINING • EACH PHASE OF THE EVENT: • THE BEGINNING • THE INTENSITY • THE PROCESSES OF CONTINUATION • THE END THE CASE OF CANADIAN DRI (1999-2005) 1999 2002

  11. Current GRP Data Sets (From 2008 report) 250/100 km GEO Water Cycle Integration Workshop, Frascati, Italy Graphic courtesy Christian Kummerow

  12. Comparing global fluxes 1.Introduction 2.Methods 3. Comparing global fluxes 4. Conclusion

  13. SST increase in the tropical ocean since the 1970s Sea Surface Temperatures 1970-97/ 50-69

  14. VOCALS • Goal: To better understand and simulate how marine boundary layer cloud systems surrounding the Americas interact with the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system on diurnal to interannual timescales. • Objectives: • To understand model biases and improve models in the SE Pacific and other cool ocean regimes; • To understand aerosol-cloud interaction and its impact on regional climate; • To understand and predict SST in the SE Pacific; • To understand the influences of S. America and remote forcing on the SE Pacific on diurnal to interannual timescales.

  15. VOCALS

  16. South America: Retreating Glaciers For publication in Palaeo3in 2009 Villalba et al., (in press)

  17. Hydrologic Application Project HAP GHP Background on the scientific issues HAP Science Infusion Process (HSIP) WCRP/WGSP GEWEX Science (seasonal forecasts; remote sensing, etc.) CEOP/HAP Science (down scaling, skillful ensemble generation) RHP/HAP Testbed Projects Prototype Oper-ational Forecasts and Projections Users Applied Forecasts HSIP

  18. HAP/ Hydrologic Application Project HAP CEOP End-to-End test-bed demonstration of HAP seasonal forecastingcontributions (after John Schaake)

  19. WCRP Future Horizons: Post-2013 Long-Term Strategy: New WCRP themes/structure to > promote/facilitateresearch on frontiers of climate/Earth system > promote the need for & use of climate information, products & services. Three or four Themes/Panels? Regional climate prediction as a separate theme or fitted better within a processes/modelling theme or an applications/impacts theme? What’s the role, nature, duration of cross-cutting activities? How to ensure societal needs are met and there is effective engagement with stakeholders? How to ensure continued engagement/support from sponsors, project offices, etc., to any new theme/structure?

  20. New Structure for the GWSPExpert Groups for Integrative Study Areas Conceptual Model of the GWS Integrative Study Areas Climate change Governance & Adaptation Strategies … • Global Scale Initiative … Simulation modelling Observation 2. Global Catchment Initiative Special Interests Methods & Tools 3. Global Water Needs Initiative Scientific & Policy Relevant Results Current state Manifested & projected changes Thresholds, abrupt changes, tipping points … Policy, Outreach & Capacity Building

  21. GWSP Global Initiatives – 1. Global Scale Initiative 1. Global Scale Initiative: Ranking Threats to the GWS, States, and Trajectories of Change a) Global estimates of major changes in the GWS b) Global interdisciplinary indicators of water resource stress c) Global analysis and mapping of major agents of change

  22. GWSP Global Initiatives – 2. Global Catchment Initiative 2. Global Catchment Initiative: Bringing the Global Perspective to River Basin Research and Management • Define a new set of global-oriented questions for river basin researchers and managers. • “A GWS research template” e.g. What potential changes in particular catchments are due to climate change? How does international virtual water trade affect water use and availability in different river basins? What is the impact of international institutions on the condition, management and development of particular river basins? • Address and discuss these questions in an international inter-comparison of river basins. • Educate water managers and other stakeholders about the importance of global change on the catchment scale.

  23. Indicators: Reaching out from science to policy makers Environmental Security Indices Water Quality Smakhtin et al, 2003 (From Vorosmarty) >threat to HWS >threat to BD (Vorosmarty) BD=biodiversity HWS=human water supply

  24. GWSP Global Initiatives – 3. Global Water Needs Initiative 3. Global Water Needs Initiative: Humans and Nature • Develop a global consensus on assessment of environmental flow needs. • Valuate freshwater ecosystem goods and services. • Devise strategies for harmonising water needs of humans and nature

  25. Earth-System Science for a Sustainable Planet • Leading international research on the planet's key biogeochemical processes including humans • Integrated Earth-system approach, working globally and regionally. • Addressing impacts, adaptation and vulnerability • Using a range of tools (models, inter-comparisons, data evaluation)

  26. IGBP Regional OfficeBrazil Hosted by the Brazilian institute for Space Research (INPE) and the Earth System Science Center

  27. Facilitating regional collaboration and research Link global programs & regional scientists Proposal of a Latin American Global Change Committee (with the IGBP NCs) Financial support to young Latin American scientists (Summer schools, and training activities) http://www.inpe.br/igbp Organization and hosting of International Meeting Global Envronemtnal change research

  28. Regional Office Science HAND - Height Above the Nearest Drainage a new terrain descriptor using SRTM-DEM AMAZONICA and Carbon Tracker and Water availability: controls of Land Use and Climate Changes The proposal seeks to estimate and interpret greenhouse gases (GHG) and surface hydrological exchanges at large- and regional scale in Brazil, both due to climate variation and land use changes (LUC), using consistent field measurements and modeling of the land-atmosphere system. Hydropower reservoirs – GHG emissions; Carbon balance; Carbon Biomass (Amazon) Develop a monitoring system for estimating the carbon storage dynamics in the Amazon Forest (primary and secondary) by integrating forest inventories and remote sensing New Center for Bioethanol Technology multidisciplinary and technological development for the sugar cane ethanol

  29. GWSP Latin America Regional Office • Climate change on the water cycle in regional scale • Human impact on water cycle in South America • Build a network of water related studies and institutes and to link the GWSP (Global Water System Project) • Discuss new facts, new information, new methodologies, and new trends, related to water issues in the region, as well as water conflicts, policy making process, and capacity building

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