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LACE Data Assimilation Working Days 14-16 June 2011, Budapest HARMONIE DA suite at KNMI

LACE Data Assimilation Working Days 14-16 June 2011, Budapest HARMONIE DA suite at KNMI Jan Barkmeijer With contributions from: Cisco de Bruijn, Siebren de Haan, Gert-Jan Marseille, Emiel van der Plas, and Wim de Rooy. Content. Description KNMI DA suite Monitoring tools

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LACE Data Assimilation Working Days 14-16 June 2011, Budapest HARMONIE DA suite at KNMI

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  1. LACE Data Assimilation Working Days 14-16 June 2011, Budapest HARMONIE DA suite at KNMI Jan Barkmeijer With contributions from: Cisco de Bruijn, Siebren de Haan, Gert-Jan Marseille, Emiel van der Plas, and Wim de Rooy.

  2. Content • Description KNMI DA suite • Monitoring tools • Problems encountered • Future developments

  3. The KNMI Data assimilation suite • Initial run at 15 November 2010, but many changes (experimental status) • since then. • Runs at ECMWF, using hourly boundaries and observation set from a H7.2 • Hirlam suite at KNMI (ectrans is used to tranfer data vice-versa) • Cycling time is 6h and a 24h forecast is produced at 00 and 12 UTC. • Integration area (300x300 gp at 2.5km grid resolution) covers the Netherlands and vertical resolution is 60 levels (Meteo-France definition). Lowest model level around 9m • Harmonie model cycle H36h1.2 with some modifications • Data is processed e.g. at DMI/KNMI for monitoring purposes.

  4. Area definition 200x200 300x300 400x400 500x500

  5. LBC data from Hirlam forecast for both runs RADAR 300x300 400x400

  6. Computation of background error statistics - Used the recipe as described on the Hirlam wiki page for Harmonie Data-assimilation - Central here is the creation of a series of downscaled Harmonie 6h forecasts for 20060920-20061031 at 00 UTC, using 4 members of the ECMWF EPS

  7. Confusion w.r.t. virtual and real temperature (LSPRT) DMI Harmonie suite KNMI old Courtesy Nils Gustafsson

  8. After correction DMI KNMI new

  9. Content • Description KNMI DA suite • Monitoring tools • Problems encountered • Future developments

  10. What datasets are being used?

  11. What data sets are being used (2)? Mode-S drops out

  12. o-a/o-b statistics for April negative bias

  13. The Danmark Monotoring Facility

  14. Monitoring with KNMI Parametrization Testbed (KPT) 1D column at Cabauw from 3D run

  15. Occurrence of fog

  16. Occurrence of fog (2)

  17. Content • Description KNMI DA suite • Monitoring tools • Problems encountered • Future developments

  18. EDMFM and cloud scheme changes Increase variance computation in the cloud scheme to alleviate the on-off character in the generation of cloud Modis VIS satellite image 13th of May 2008 1315 UTC Cloud cover Cloud cover

  19. Instabilities in the canopy model over sea (ECUME)

  20. Using Meteo-France 60 level definition

  21. Switching off ECUME over sea

  22. Occurrence of negative q in the analysis Also other hydrometeors are affected (e.g. cloud-ice and cloud-water) First-guess Analysis

  23. Solution: set GFL >=0 at analysis time

  24. Impact on 24-h accumulated precipitation original analysis modified

  25. Vertical nesting strategy 1.3hPa 10hPa 0.01hPa

  26. Vertical nesting strategy 1.3hPa 10hPa 0.01hPa Since 1 June 2011 a parallel 3dvar suite runs at ECMWF (cy36h1.3) and with ECMWF boundaries

  27. T+12h forecast for T2m valid 5 June 2011 at 12 UTC HIRLAM LBC ECMWF LBC

  28. RADAR 3DVAR + HIRLAM LBC 400x400 500x500

  29. RADAR 3DVAR + ECMWF LBC 400x400 500x500

  30. FUTURE PLANS - Get radar data-assimilation running - Implementation of a 800x800xL60 Harmonie suite at KNMI, 3dvar with cycling time of 3 hour (or less) - Add more q observations: GPS, Cloud data (e.g. cover) - Develop more tools for monitoring (MetEvaluation) - Coupling with other applications: surge model, LOTOS (air pollution model) - Increase research effort on DA+EPS: + timing/location of convection + 4dvar without nonlinear updates

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