Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Production Suite Review December 8-10, 2009 Steve Hill Lead, Development and

1. 1 Space WeatherPrediction CenterNCEP Production Suite Review December 8-10, 2009 Steve HillLead, Development and Transition Section With contributions from:T. Bogdan, R. Akmaev, D. Biesecker,A. Parsons, V. Pizzo, G. Millward

2. 2 Outline Models Context Highlights from FY09 - Ionosphere The First Operational N(S)WP Model: Enlil Geospace Model Plans for FY10

3. 3 Models: Context I

4. 4

5. 5 Solar Wind Disturbance Propagation Model: Basics

6. 6 Geospace Response Model: Basics

7. 7 Outline Models Context Highlights from FY09 - Ionosphere The First Operational N(S)WP Model: Enlil Geospace Model Plans for FY10

8. 8 D-Region Absorption Prediction (D-RAP)

9. 9 New SWPC model to be deployed for testing later this year Combines low-to-middle latitude absorption driven by solar X-rays with high latitude absorption driven by energetic particles Use GOES XRS to measure X-rays Use GOES EPS to measure particles Challenges include different magnitudes and time scales of absorption Different physical mechanisms and models different latitude ranges Different timeliness for supporting model inputs New SWPC model to be deployed for testing later this year Combines low-to-middle latitude absorption driven by solar X-rays with high latitude absorption driven by energetic particles Use GOES XRS to measure X-rays Use GOES EPS to measure particles Challenges include different magnitudes and time scales of absorption Different physical mechanisms and models different latitude ranges Different timeliness for supporting model inputs

10. 10 Integrated Dynamics in Earth�s Atmosphere (IDEA)Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Collaborators NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Others Sponsored by AFOSR Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) program NASA Living With a Star (LWS) and Heliophysics Theory programs

11. 11 The Midnight Temperature Maximum

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13. 13 Summary of Research Results

14. 14 Outline Models Context Highlights from FY09 - Ionosphere The First Operational N(S)WP Model: Enlil Geospace Model Plans for FY10

15. 15 Enlil Product Overview I Goal To transition into operations a physics-based model that propagates interplanetary disturbances in the solar wind from the Sun to Earth. Current capabilities There is no current capability for this goal. Current shortfalls No existing solar wind model that propagates coronal mass ejections (CME) through the ambient solar wind to earth Lead times for warnings are on the order of one hour

16. 16 Enlil Product Overview II Method for addressing shortfalls The WSA-Enlil-Cone model will propagate CMEs through the ambient solar wind The model will provide a 1-4 day forecast for CME arrival at Earth Users SWPC forecast Center Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), NASA, others Benefit to users This model will provide forecasters sufficient guidance to issue meaningful warnings of geomagnetic activity by extending the warning times for solar storms from 1 hour out to 3-4 days.

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18. 18 Enlil Project Scope Scope Statement: This project will: Transition into operations a physics-based, numerical model (Enlil) to propagates interplanetary disturbances from the Sun to Earth. Enlil will be run on NCO supercomputers in a production parallel mode starting in FY11 Q4 and will move into full operations by FY 12 Q4. This will provide forecasters with sufficient guidance to issue meaningful warnings of geomagnetic activity up to 3-days in advance. This is a major improvement over the current15-45 minute warnings that can be issued based on ACE solar wind data. A tool to reproduce the hazard quotients and plots from the NGDC data will serve as the archive product. The project will not include: Ensemble modeling �Continuously updated� ambient inputs Automated fitting of CME input parameters CME internal magnetic structure Energetic particle generation and propagation Small-scale waves and plasma structures

19. 19 Enlil CONOPS

20. 20 Enlil Product Requirements (Draft) Shock time of arrival, quantification of strength, and duration of event Plasma parameters (magnetic field, density, velocity) at Earth Kp (also Dst if possible) Graphical views (2D and 3D) of the inner heliosphere depicting major structures, including multiple CMEs

21. 21 Major Enlil Task Areas

22. 22 Outline Models Context Highlights from FY09 - Ionosphere The First Operational N(S)WP Model: Enlil Geospace Model Plans for FY10

23. 23 What is Geospace (Magnetosphere)? Geospace is where the Sun�s influence first encounters Earth It is the solar wind interacting with the Earth�s magnetic field Corresponding to the Space Weather G-scale Customers: Power grid Pipelines Surveying Drilling Satellite operators Aviation/NextGen

24. 24 SWPC Spoiled by Choice The science community has been actively developing Geospace models for years A wealth of these models are available to anyone via the NASA/GSFC/CCMC SWPC is working with CCMC to have CCMC test all of the geospace models in residence there.

25. 25 Finding the model that follows and will be driven by ENLIL SWPC and CCMC are joining forces to determine which geospace model will follow ENLIL into the transition process Jointly, SWPC, CCMC, and the modeling community to develop metrics by which to test the models A similar activity has already occurred under the NSF sponsored Geospace Environmental Modeling (GEM) challenge CCMC will then test all models in residence at CCMC against the defined metrics and provide SWPC with the results A preferred model, chosen considering many factors, including the CCMC test results, will then become the next major SWPC transition project

26. 26 Potential Metrics for Geospace Magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit (GOES) Magnetopause crossings by geosynchronous satellite (GOES and LANL) These events are significant for satellite operators Plasma density/temperature at geosynchronous orbit (LANL) Ground magnetic field perturbations (ground based magnetometers) This metric is most relevant to the power grid Prediction of ?B is highly desired for predicting the impact on the power grid.

27. 27 Other considerations Need to define data sets and events against which to test the models How to connect ACE L1 observations and/or ENLIL L1 predictions to the models Ballistic propagation or something else? Need to determine spatial and temporal resolution to test at Need to determine appropriate skill scores Need to consider all phases of a storm All-clear, pre-storm, main phase, recovery phase

28. 28 Where Do We Go From Here?