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TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE (TCS08) FIELD EXPERIMENT IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING 2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE (TCS08) FIELD EXPERIMENT IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING 2008.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE (TCS08) FIELD EXPERIMENT IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING 2008

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  1. TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE (TCS08) FIELD EXPERIMENTIN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING 2008 Russell L. Elsberry (Naval Postgraduate School)Ronald J. Ferek (Office of Naval Research)Simon Chang (Naval Research Laboratory)Daniel Eleuterio (Naval Research Laboratory)Patrick A. Harr (Naval Postgraduate School) SPONSORS Office of Naval ResearchNaval Research LaboratoryAir Force*National Science Foundation * With thanks to LCOL Kurt Brueske 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  2. Key science questions to be addressed in a program aimed at increased understanding and predictability of tropical cyclone characteristics during formation, intensification, and recurvature over the western North Pacific • Highlights • Incorporates multiple space and time scales • Large scale controls • Global and basin-wide spatial scales • Medium-range and synoptic temporal scales • Mesoscale organization pathways • During formation • During intensification • Primary hypotheses with respect to: • Large-scale role in pre-conditioning or inhibition due to ventilation • Mesoscale organizational pathways leading to construction of a potential vorticity monolith • Role of low-level convergence associated with deep convective cells • Stratiform regions of mesoscale convective systems • Relative roles of environmental and vortex structures in determining the evolution of the outer wind structure • In tandem with the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  3. FORMATION: SCIENCE HYPOTHESES Science hypothesesMesoscale processes determine the location and timing of tropical cyclone formation within the favorable environment Top-down: MCV near center merges with monsoon depression circulation Bottom-up: Low-level cyclonic vortices form from intense convection in “sweet spot”Environmental processes lead to amplification of the secondary circulation that spin-up the tropical cyclone, but may inhibit via ventilation Concept of operationsGlobal model forecasts for potential cloud clustersRegional model forecasts for likely mesoscale organizationSatellite (geostationary and polar-orbiting for continual monitoring, cross-checking against model output, and aircraft briefing and in-flight support) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  4. STRUCTURE: SCIENCE HYPOTHESES Environmental dominance:Outer windstructure evolves only slowly from the structure determined at the time of formation Internally determined:Dynamic and thermodynamic imbalances in the inner region generate outward-and-upward-propagating Rossby waves that modify the outer wind structure Super-intensity:Frequent dropwindsonde releases through the eyewall of typhoons will detect structures leading to super-intensity 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  5. SPECIAL TCS08 RESOURCES AIRCRAFT Naval Research Laboratory P-3 ELDORA (Doppler Radar) Dropwindsondes Flight-level meteorological variables Doppler wind lidarAir Force C-130 reconnaissance aircraft Stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) Dropwindsondes Flight-level meteorological variables Airborne Expendable BathyThermographsAir Force support aircraft Ocean buoy deploymentTaiwan DOTSTAR (if operating near Taiwan) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  6. Combined missions during tropical cyclone formation Use of Eldora to measure characteristics associated with deep convection Doppler Wind Lidar for inflow measurements Use of WC-130 to measure the environmental characteristics BASE OF OPERATIONS AT ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  7. Pre-Pabuk Tropical Wave PGUM Lawnmower Pattern

  8. Tropical Storm WC-130J Survey: BUTTERFLY PA~300-700 mb, IAS~280-240 kt (280 kt transit) Leg radii~110 nm 9.5 hr duration 1.5 hr creep/day GPS Dropsonde: 7 sondes per leg +3 = 24 total (eyewall multi-sonde ~5 per leg = +15; 39 total) AXBTs: 7 AXBTs per leg +2 diagonals x4 = 29 total 1944 UTC 10 July 2007 TMI 85 GhZ H Targeting Option Track PGUM Butterfly Pattern Man Yi

  9. Typhoon WC-130J Survey 700 mb, 220 kt IAS 110 nm radius legs, 7.5 hr duration 7 sondes per profile x 4 = 28 total (eyewall multi-sonde: +5 per profile x 2 = +10 = 38 total; or x 4 = +20 = 48 total); no creep 7 AXBTs per profile x 4 = 28 total RODN PGUM Man Yi 0030 UTC 12 July 2007 0430 UTC 12 July 2007 amsre 89 GhZ H

  10. SATELLITE MTSATContinual monitoring during all phases of operations Rapid scan – desirable during all flight operations Polar-orbiters Microwave for convective structure Scatterometers NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSES AND FORECASTSGlobal models (NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO, ECMWF) Environmental conditions in all phases Focus attention on cloud clusters Mesoscale models Naval Research Lab COAMPS Central Weather Bureau NFS and WRF SPECIAL TCS08 RESOURCES 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  11. VALIDATION OF SATELLITE ALGORITHMS WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND STRUCTURE CHANGE INCLUDING INTENSITY CHANGE AF C-130 STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR) AND DROPWINDSONDES AT ALL STAGES FROM FORMATION TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN COOPERATION WITH T-PARC DOPPLER WIND LIDAR ON NRL P-3 VERTICAL PROFILES OF WIND VECTORS TO THE SURFACE (CROSS-CALIBRATION WITH C-130 SFMR) IN CLOUD-FREE SCENES – FIRST TIME IN TROPICAL CYCLONE COHERENT WIND STRUCTURES IN BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OCEAN IN TROPICAL CYCLONES (Emmitt and Foster) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  12. U.S. FUNDING SOURCE INTERESTS AND REQUIREMENTS(TCS08-specific but affects other science objectives) Office of Naval Research (ONR) Air Force (AF) Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) National Science Foundation (NSF) PLATFORMSPONSOR% SCIENCEOBJECTIVES P-3 ELDORA ONR/NRL 50 Formation,Structure NSF 50 Extratropical transition P-3 Wind Lidar ONR 100 All C-130 Flight hours AF 50 Satellite evaluation ONR/NRL 50 Formation, Structure c-C-130 Dropsondes AF 100 All Ocean buoys ONR 100 Structure (intensity) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

  13. T-PARC/TCS-08 Components TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005 Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, FALCON Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts Japan, Yokota AFB ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis Subtropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 TC Intensification and structure change Recurvature, initiation of ET TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction Tropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 Okinawa, Kadena AFB Tropical Measurements Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation Guam, Andersen AFB

  14. What are the key structural aspects of the tropical cyclone and its environment that limit the predictability of recurvature and the start of extratropical transition over the subtropical western North Pacific? Increase in forecast uncertainty over tropical and midlatitude regions often occurs due to tropical cyclones and the movement of tropical cyclones into the midlatitudes TY Tokage, October 2004 Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, 3-7 March 2008

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