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Martin Manning and Greg Bodeker National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

New Zealand SCM results for the UNFCCC SBSTA assessment of contributions to climate change. Martin Manning and Greg Bodeker National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

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Martin Manning and Greg Bodeker National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

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  1. New Zealand SCM results for the UNFCCC SBSTA assessment of contributions to climate change Martin Manning and Greg Bodeker National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Presented at ‘Expert meeting on assessment of contributions to climate change’, Bracknell, UK, 25 to 27 September 2002

  2. Emissions • Issues: • Regional mismatches between EDGAR and SRES. • Treatment of bunker fuels. • Discrepancies between EDGAR and Marland et al. fossil fuel CO2 emissions. • Discrepancies between Stern and Kauffman CH4 emissions used in Phase 1 and EDGAR. • Suggests need for re-examining emissions data before their use in attribution.

  3. Concentrations Emissions • For CO2 • Use pulse response model of Joos et al. (1996) with separate response functions for ocean and biosphere uptake processes. • No temperature feedbacks on sea water CO2 solubility • Only parameter adjusted is effective air-sea exchange coefficient; used 0.07/year rather than 1.04/year.

  4. Return flux of carbon to the atmosphere after input from the atmosphere. Amount of carbon remaining in surface layer after an input from the atmosphere. Concentrations Emissions Biosphere Atmosphere Fab Fba Fao Ocean

  5. Concentrations Emissions Issues for carbon cycle modelling Regional attribution of changes in CO2 concentrations to changes in regional emissions in the presence of non-linearities  we use the marginal attribution approach of Enting et al. (1998) and attribute the change each year in pCO2 or NPP according to the attributed change in the driving factors.

  6. Concentrations Emissions For CH4 and N2O Integrated the ODE for time rate of change of CH4 and N2O using a fixed methane lifetime of 10 years and a fixed N2O lifetime of 114 years.

  7. Radiative Forcing Concentrations Components for CO2, CH4, N2O and sulfate aerosol assumed to be additive. RFCO2 = 5.35 ln[ pCO2/ pCO2(0) ] RFCH4 = 0.036([CH4] - [CH4(0)] ) + {CH4 & N2O term} RFN2O = 0.12 ([N2O] - [N2O(0)] ) + {CH4 & N2O term} RFsul = f Esuli.e. proportional to emissions Again, non-linear relationships mean that for attribution of forcing to each source region we use the marginal approach  contibution to changes in drivers determines contribution to changes in responses.

  8. Temperature Change Radiative Forcing Coefficients for ls and s from fit to HadCM3 stabilisation experiment as provided on web page by Jason Lowe (UKMO).

  9. Case I Attribution of emissions to regions from 1890 to 2100 Case II Attribution of emissions to regions from 1890 to 2000 Results

  10. Outstanding issues • Treatment of emissions pre-1890. • Inadequacies caused by constant CH4 lifetime. • Treatment of bunker fuels.

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