Oklahoma’s population … the key dimension of change

1. Oklahoma’s population … the key dimension of change MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation, Summer 2009 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt

2. The Metropolitan Human Services Commission in Tulsa, partnership includes: City of Tulsa Oklahoma Department of Human Services Tulsa Area United Way Tulsa Community College Tulsa County Tulsa Health Department Tulsa Public Schools Union Public Schools Ad Hoc members include: Metropolitan Tulsa Chamber and Tulsa Metropolitan Ministry. Mission To serve as a leadership catalyst for coordination of funding, planning and policy decisions affecting human capital development in Tulsa County, and provide guidance to its partners to best enhance that development. Scope of Concern Advancing the community’s investment in human capital includes the scope of efforts addressing the education, safety, health, housing, family support, emergency financial, transportation and employment preparation needs of families and individuals. These efforts increasingly seek to prevent needs through promoting greater self-sufficiency among Tulsa’s people while still intervening to respond to crises and other immediate concerns.

3. Oklahoma’s Population … no signs of significant growth except related to people of Hispanic Origin Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

4. Definitions… Demographic growth: Increase in the size of population by there being more births than death, and more migrants entering than leaving Natural balance: Fundamental growth when there are more births than deaths Replacement value: Number of children per family just sufficient to keep the total population constant or 2.1 children per woman Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

5. Worldwidepopulation growth By 2050 there will be 9 billion people on earth 3 billion will have been added just in the last 46 years Fastest growth is in underdeveloped countries Ethnic and religious diversity will be more important than race U.S. population centers will be coastal Taking a closer look… Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

6. What About Oklahoma? Look Back Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

7. Population declines in Oklahoma are widespread 1950-2000 34 counties lost 143,756 2000-2008 32 counties lost 24,500 • 2008 • Counties with less than 25,000 people40 • 10,000 to 15,000 7 • under 10,000 17 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

8. Oklahoma CountiesLosses & Gains 1950-2008 o O O Y Y I o X Y Y o Y I X O Counties that grew more than the state’s 63% growth between 1950 and 2008 X O I O I o o Y I X X X X: loss over 50.1% to 64.8%[7] Y: loss over 39.2% to 47.3% [8] I: loss 27.0%- to 34.1% [7] o: loss 12.0% to 17.1% [5] o: loss 1.1% to 8.7% [8] o I o X o Y Y I Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa for the Metropolitan Human Services Commission, June, 2009 File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt

9. 62 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties either lost population or grew at a rate less than the state between 1950 and 2008 35 counties lost population, only 5 counties had over 25,000 people in 2008. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

10. Oklahoma’s Population Shifts Only 15 counties grew at or above the state’s growth of 59% All but 6 counties were over 50,000 population in 2005 • Metro Cos. • Cleveland • Rogers • Canadian • Wagoner US Total NE Oklahoma - Delaware - Cherokee OK Total Sequoyah Co. (NE) • Mayes (NE) & • Marshall (SCrtl) Metro Cos. - Tulsa - Oklahoma • Metro Cos. • - McClain • Comanche Metro Cos. - Logan - Creek OK 59% Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

11. Oklahoma is growingat a slower pace than the nation Average Annual Rate of Growth 2000 and 2008: U.S. 1.0% State of Oklahoma 0.7% Tulsa MSA 0.8% Oklahoma City MSA 1.2% Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

12. Any growth mainly occurred in Metro Areas • 2000-2008: • Oklahoma’s population grew 5.6% • Non-urban areas grew 1.8% • OKC/Tulsa MSAs together grew 8.6% • 87% of Oklahoma’s growth was in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa MSAs Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

13. Hispanic Impact Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

14. Immigrant Population Impact has been Significant 2000-2008: 10 counties would have lost population except for Hispanic population increases Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

15. Oklahoma is essentially not growing Oklahoma City MSA Oklahoma Total Tulsa MSA 1.5% Average Annual Rate of Growth 2000-2008: Without the Hispanic population Oklahoma’s rate of growth would be reduced from 0.7%to 0.3% Oklahoma City MSA 1.2% to 0.8% Tulsa MSA 0.8% to 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% United States 1.0% to 0.5% Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

16. Hispanic Population Impacts Urban and Rural Areas • 2000-2008 Population: • Oklahoma County grew 7.0%, average annual growth 0.8% • Tulsa County grew 5.1%, average annual growth of 0.6% • What percent of Oklahoma County’s and Tulsa County’s growth was comprised of people with Hispanic origin? Oklahoma County Non-urban areas Tulsa County 98% 87% 71% What about non-urban areas? Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

17. Growth related to natural balance Oklahoma’s natural growth rate has been variable but low 30 counties in Oklahoma had less than 200 births per year Of these, 15 counties had less than 100 births per year Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

18. In Oklahoma County and Tulsa County, as well as Oklahoma, the natural population growth is strongly impacted by fertility rates of Hispanic women Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

19. Growth related to natural balance Overall, Oklahoma’s fertility rates have increased slightly, from 62.6 to 67.7 While the fertility rates for Hispanics are almost double, and increased from 103.3 to 125.2 The replacement rate is 2.1 and has reached 4.0 for women of Hispanic Origin Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

20. Oklahoma population growth related to immigration2000-2008: Non-Hispanic grew 92,390 or 2.8% 0.3% annually White non-Hispanic grew by 4.6%, or about 0.6% per year Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

21. Oklahoma population growth related to immigration The most critical contributor to population growth in small states is the increase in Hispanic population, including immigrants. Oklahoma’s Hispanic population grew by over 99,300 [2000-2008] or 55%, an average annual growth of 5.7% In two years [2006-2008] Hispanics alone grew 13% or by over 31,000 people 2000-2008: Asians and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander Alone increased in the double digits, 30% & 45% respectively, but the numbers were much smaller Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

22. Urban public school enrollment 2000-2008 Changes: Oklahoma Co. 7.2% Tulsa Co. 6.8% Non-Hispanic White population decreasedOklahoma Co. - 8,120 Tulsa Co. - 5,030 Black, Native American, Asian & Pacific Inlanders, and Hispanic children all increased. Complete this Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

23. Elementary public school enrollment growth was primarily due to increases in Hispanic students % Hispanic State-wide 12% Oklahoma County23% Tulsa County15% OKC Public Schools35% Tulsa Public Schools23% Complete this Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

24. Public school enrollment growth was primarily due to increases in Hispanic students Hispanic enrollment increased: Oklahoma Co. 123.8% Tulsa Co. 135.6% Combined, these two counties had an increase of over 21,000 Hispanic children Complete this Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

25. OklahomaCounty Schools October 1 Enrollment Tulsa County Schools October 1 Enrollment Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

26. Tulsa County Public School Enrollment2000-2008 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

27. Look Forward Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

28. Oklahoma’s Population Age Structure Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

29. Age grouping is an important factor to consider In relationship to the national percentage change [2000-2008] Oklahoma was: Above- Children 0-9 Below - youth 10-24 Above ages 25-34 Below ages 35-74 Above ages 75-69 Same as US 70-79 Abovenation age 80 and over Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

30. Oklahoma’s total population has grown at just under 0.6% per year People 65 and over increased 5.1% between 2000 and 2007 Total 0-17 18-64 65 & Over 85 & Over Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

31. Between 2007 and 2030, Oklahoma’s total population is projected to grow at a slow pace of +10.2% The population of people 65 and over is projected to increase 60% The working age population is projected to decline Total 0-17 18-64 65 & Over 85 & Over Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

32. Age Structure: Total Population Percent Change US Compared to Oklahoma by Single Year of Age 0-85+ The age group that is most productive (34-47) is projected to decline Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

33. What does the future hold? US Population Projections: 2005-2050 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their US-born descendants. Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005. By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago. The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the US population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

34. Findings Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

35. Findings: Oklahoma’s growth will continue to be low compared to the nation There will continue to be population shifts From rural to urban Migration From out-of-state To out-of-state Metropolitan areas will continue to grow close to the national rate of growth, and out pace both Oklahoma and rural areas Children and seniors continue to be the largest growth populations Population in the working age group will continue to decline over time, especially in rural areas Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

36. Findings: Replacement population Oklahoma will have a hard time just replacing its’ population Oklahoma’s population is aging and there is a minimum ratio of persons aged 18 to 65 to those that between 0 - 18 and aged 65 years and older that is necessary to maintain a viable economy and necessary services. Additional analysis needs to be completed to determine the necessary mix of age groups. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

37. Findings: Hispanic population Hispanic populations will continue to play an important role in population growth in urban and rural areas. Births to women of Hispanic Origin will continue to grow, as a share of total births as well as in total number Hispanic children will continue to increase their share in the public school population Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

38. Reasons why immigration issues need to be addressed Workforce Education Training Child Care Safety Domestic Violence Keeping crime low Health care Immunizations Pre-natal and Post-natal care Emergency Care Birthing Support services Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa for the Metropolitan Human Services Commission, June, 2009 File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt

39. Agenda Provide public education on immigration and Oklahoma’s needs – Offer brief presentations describing the reasons for sustaining and developing the immigrant population: Satisfying current and future workforce needs Addressing Oklahoma’s future growth and vitality Increasing state resources for funding essential services Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

40. Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa We are available to provide a great amount of additional data and information on this topic and many others. The Community Service Council's Census Information Center (CIC) is provided in cooperation with the U.S. Census Bureau to make census data more accessible for use in planning to meet the needs of people in Oklahoma.  Please visit our website for a variety of presentations and sets of data for your use in planning and development of the State of Oklahoma. Go to www.csctulsa.org. Click on “Data” The Council is supported in data and information efforts by the Metropolitan Human Services Commission in Tulsa __________________________________________________________ Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa (a United Way agency) 16 East 16th Street, Suite 202 . Tulsa, OK 74119-4402 . 918-585-5551 Contact: Dan Arthrell, MA darthrell@csctulsa.org Jan Figart, MS jfigart@csctulsa.org Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa for the Metropolitan Human Services Commission, June, 2009 File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt