Susan Gray September 27, 2010

1. Susan Gray September 27, 2010

2. Not a planning document and will not recommend policy • Executive Order 01.01.2010.16 - Identify approaches to meet Maryland’s long-term electricity needs and to achieve a clean, reliable, and affordable energy future • Executive Order (EO) analysis will include: • Existing and planned electric generating capacity • Demand response • Electricity-based transportation • Existing and planned electric transmission • Conventional and renewable generating capacity additions (including small-scale distributed generation) • Fuel-switching • Energy conservation and efficiency • Smart grid • Energy storage technologies

3. EO evaluation criteria: • Long-term cost and cost stability (including congestion costs) • Supply reliability • Transmission and distribution issues • Minimization of adverse environmental and land-use impacts • Consistency with state and federal environmental laws • Solicit input and comments from a wide range of stakeholders • Hold public meetings prior to completion of the report • Final Report – December 1, 2011 • Update the report every 5 years

4. Preliminary Analysis Approach • Use Ventyx Integrated model outputs • Generating capacity changes (retirements, additions, retrofits) • Capacity prices & zonal LMPs • REC and emissions allowance prices • Emissions of pollutants (CO2, SO2, NOx) • Generation and fuel sources by zone • Use PJM energy and demand forecasts (adjust for demand response and EE/EC)

5. Building on other past and ongoing efforts MEA’s Maryland Energy Outlook Maryland PSC’s SB400 Final Report to the General Assembly - and Supplement Long-term Electricity Report MDE/MEA/PSC Maryland Multi-pollutant analysis Maryland PSC’s 10-Year Plan Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council Transmission Options Study

6. Preliminary Analysis Approach (cont.) 7+ potential base case scenarios to be run along with 16+ alternative scenarios

7. Preliminary Analysis Approach (cont.) Possible alternative scenarios run on different base cases

8. Step #1 – get the assumptions right and make the process transparent.Step #2 – make the model runs. Use PPRAC as advisory committee during development of the report.

9. Based on informal inputs received from several PPRAC members and on-going research: EmPOWER Maryland goals - met in the base cases or reflect less-than-full achievement based on current approved programs? Potential additional scenarios for high electric vehicle penetration? Mix of renewable generating capacity for high renewables cases (how much off-shore & on-shore wind, solar, other)? Renewable Portfolio Standard – re: solar carve out - met in the base cases or reflect less-than-full achievement?

10. Schedule • Assumptions completed & documented – December 2010 • Receive PJM 2011 Forecast and begin runs – January 2011 • Preliminary Draft Report – March 2011 • Introductory and background sections • Descriptions of models and development of model input parameters • Results of base case runs (w/o all alternative scenarios) • Draft report – late April 2011 • Followed by a public meeting • Final draft report – late Summer/Fall 2011 • Followed by a public meeting • Final Report – December 1, 2011

11. Questions?