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Summing Up Results

Summing Up Results. A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project. Procedure to Assess Susceptibility. Develop inference models: Adapt theory, select variables, specify relationships between variables, select indicators

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Summing Up Results

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  1. Summing Up Results

  2. A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought:Results from the Security Diagrams Project

  3. Procedure to Assess Susceptibility • Develop inference models: Adapt theory, select variables, • specify relationships between variables, select indicators • for variables. • 2. Quantify the models based on fuzzy set theory • Collect data for indicators: (top-down and bottom-up from case study regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh) • 4. Input data to model and compute susceptibility

  4. Susceptibility (1990s): Comparison of Perspectives Political Science Env. Psychology Economics Andhra Pradesh, India Southern Portugal Volga Region, Russia

  5. What have we learned from the different perspectives? Conclusions of Comparison Estimates S. Portugal similar  different perspectives give similar estimate for industrial countries? Consensus that Andhra Pradesh most susceptible  but large range  role of agrículture Estimates for Volga region very different: Corruption, conflict  Russia more susceptible (susceptibility similar to Andhra Pradesh) Education, personal resources  Russian less susceptible (susceptibility similar to Portugal)

  6. What have we learned from the different perspectives? What factors should be included in a general model of susceptibility to drought? • Psychology. • factors about individuals – e.g. individual resourcefulness • barriers to action (lack of resources, lack of community support) • Political • education • instability, corruption • Economics • health of population • dependence on agriculture

  7. Summing Up Goal: Improve quantification of vulnerability to drought by quantifying and testing concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility and crisis 3 case study regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh Developed new approach to quantifying susceptibility  Inference modeling + fuzzy set theory  Allows comparison of different disciplinary perspective  Tool for (rapid) vulnerability assessments Used media analysis to identify crisis events  Provides independent variable for testing vulnerability estimates Verified indicators of water stress  Identified statistically-significant indicators & thresholds  Valuable for assessment of vulnerability

  8. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo (Project leader) Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz (Project manager) Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Richard KleinLilibeth Acosta-Michlik A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams ProjectFunded by German Research Ministry Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Research Community  Montreal, Canada  16-18 October, 2003

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