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a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 04 August 2011

a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 04 August 2011. Title : Enhanced use of GOES for estimating land surface wetness with application to wildfire forecasting at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Status : Renewal Duration : 1 year Project Leads:

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a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 04 August 2011

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  1. a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Pageversion 04 August 2011 Title: Enhanced use of GOES for estimating land surface wetness with application to wildfire forecasting at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Status: Renewal Duration: 1 year Project Leads: Robert M RabinNOAA/NSSLrabin@ssec.wisc.edu Phillip Bothwell NOAA/NWS/SPC Other Participants: Marouane Temimi NOAA/CREST/CCNY

  2. b. Project Summary • Provide estimates of surface dryness from rate of daytime warming • Based on previous work which used clear-sky sounder surface temperature • Extend to imager data for enhanced spatial and temporal resolution • Augment with NDVI from AVHRR for info on biomass and dry fuels • Compare to other estimates: AMSR-E, SMOS, and in-situ data

  3. c. Motivation / Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s):Weather and Water, Climate • Addresses need for improved estimates of surface dryness and fuel loads for forecasting wildfires (SPC) and model initialization • New use of GOES observations • Implementation completed but validation needed

  4. GOES-13 Heating Rate: 25 June-09 July 2011 Yellow/Red: Dry Green: Wet

  5. GOES-11 Heating Rate: 25 June-09 July 2011

  6. GOES-13 Heating Rate Anomaly: 25 June-09 July 2011

  7. Composite NDVI: 23 June - 09 July 2011 Vegetation cover, Yellow: Low Green: High

  8. NDVI change: 09 June - 09 July 2011 Yellow: Decrease Green: Increase

  9. d. Methodology • Validate GOES-based Dryness Index with temporal and spatial patterns of: • University of Amsterdam/NASA multi-sensor products of surface soil moisture, vegetation water content, and land surface temperature (Owe et al. 2008, Holmes et al., 2009) • SMOS L-Band estimates of soil moisture (European Space Agency) • In situ soil moisture: such as are available CREST network, OK mesonetwork, and in the San Joaquin Valley (access from NWS OHD). • Surface Bowen ratio and evapotranspiration from the GOES-based ALEXI model (previously funded GIMPAP project).

  10. e. Expected Outcomes New tool to provide fire weather forecasters daily changes in surface wetness and fuel loads. It is expected that the products will be enhanced with the availability of GOES-R data; especially with the enhanced resolution and capability of directly estimating NDVI from the ABI Index will be more readily accepted with further validation

  11. e. Possible Path to Operations • Already available in NAWIPS at SPC Further Refinement as needed • Implement at NESDIS SAB • Make product available to AWIPS2

  12. f. Milestones FY 2012: 1. Acquire and process data for validation 2. Analyze and compare AMSR-E, SMOS (if available) and in situ data 3. Publish results 4. Implement and train for use at SAB and elsewhere

  13. g. Funding Request

  14. g. Spending Plan FY12 • FY12 $10,000 Total Project Budget • Grant to CI -CREST ($8K) • % FTE - 10% ($8K) • Travel - None • Publication charge - None • Transfer to NSSL: $2K $ 2K Travel (R. Rabin) Q3 and Q4 (Cost shared with other projects) Approximately 2 trips Norman-CREST 2 trips Norman-SAB (DC)

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