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MAP D-PHASE

MAP D-PHASE. Forecast Demonstration Project Instrument of WWRP Last phase of MAP. Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss. What is an FDP?. WWRP instrument > Forecast of weather of international relevance  high-impact weather > Clear evaluation protocols

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MAP D-PHASE

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  1. MAP D-PHASE • Forecast Demonstration Project • Instrument of WWRP • Last phase of MAP Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss

  2. What is an FDP? • WWRP instrument > Forecast of weather of international relevance  high-impact weather > Clear evaluation protocols > Expectation of success > Clear advance in operationalforecast. • Proposal to WWRP

  3. Components of MAP FDP • Forecast heavy precipitation events in the alps • Include assimilation schemes (e.g., for radar data) • Coupling hydro/meteo models • End-user specific products  develop and verify on MAP cases experience with operational MC-2 (3km resolution during MAP SOP)  Forecast Demonstration period

  4. General Goals • Demonstrate ability for improved forecast of heavy precipitation in the alps  High-resolution atmospheric modelling ensemble forecast technique  Radar data (assimilation)  Hydrological modeling • End users involved (end user needs, e.g. probabilistic forecasts) • Evaluation protocols (yet to be determined)

  5. D-PHASE…. Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of Flooding Events in the Alps

  6. D-PHASE essentials • Forecast (warning) chain for heavy precipitation events in the alps • Test in pre-defined ‘Forecast Period’ MAP season (Sept to November): 2006 (7?) extension to COPS (DFG field program on QNV in summer 07)? • Joint Target area: Lago Maggiore – various sub-areas

  7. Strategy for D-PHASE Atmosphere - Multi-component approach: • Local EPS systems (COSMO-LEPS, LAMEPS, PEPS,..) 3-5 days probabilistic forecast  likelihood of ‘event’

  8. Probability maps for 24 h precipitation André Walser & COSMO-LEPS

  9. Strategy for D-PHASE Atmosphere - Multi-component approach: • Local EPS systems (COSMO-LEPS, LAMEPS, PEPS,..) 3-5 days probabilistic forecast  likelihood of ‘event’ • ‘standard’ deterministic models at high resolution (1-3km)  short-range, targeted coupled hydrological models latest radar information assimilated • A possible ‘micro-LEPS’ made up as a poor man’s EPS from the above probabilistic information on hydrol. patterns.

  10. Strategy for D-PHASE Hydrosphere: • Hydrological models distributed coupled • Assimilation of latest information  radar composites rain gauges • Probabilistic forcing from atmospheric models from radar (obs) uncertainty

  11. Hydrological Model Setup: • Rhine upstream of Rheinfelden (34550 km2) • Model: PREVAH (Gurtz et al. 1999) • Driven by LM / COSMO-LEPS • A few test cases with 51 EPS members AARE (Thun) ILL (Gisingen) Using COSMO-LEPS for hydrological forecasting • COSMO-LEPS Setup: • quasi-operational since November 2002 • initial and boundary cond. from ECMWF EPS • Integration period: 120 h • Model: Lokal Modell (LM) • Grid-spacing: 10 km, 32 levels Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

  12. initialization simulated runoff hydrological model driven by surface observations deterministic forecast surface observations Deterministic Runoff Forecast Aare - Thun (2490 km2) 1999: ~570 m3/s observed runoff 1970: ~400 m3/s Runoff [mm/h] Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

  13. Deterministic versus Probabilistic Forecast AARE - Thun (2490 km2) initialization no precip Runoff [mm/h] hydrological model driven by surface observations 51 member LEPS forecast surface observations (Mark Verbunt, ETH Zürich) Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

  14. Deterministic versus Probabilistic Forecast ILL – Gisingen Runoff [mm/h] initialization hydrological model driven by surface observations 51 member LEPS forecast surface observations Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

  15. Representative members 5 EPS members (COSMO-LEPS clustering) ILL – Gisingen Runoff [mm/h] 10 EPS members (COSMO-LEPS clustering) Runoff [mm/h] 51 EPS members Runoff [mm/h] Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew (Mark Verbunt, ETH Zürich)

  16. Strategy for D-PHASE End users: 1. Authorities  civil protection river/lake management 2. THEIR needs thresholds cost/loss --> end-to-end flood forecasting system

  17. ECMWF EPS LAMEPS regionalLEPS Day -4 (COSMO) LEPS Alert Event? Where? no yes Time Days -3, -2, -1 Sub-domain X HI-res simulation HI-res simulation HI-res simulation ECMWF EPS HI-res simulation HI-res simulation LAMEPS regionalLEPS (COSMO) LEPS Confir- mation HI-res LEPS Hydrol. simulation no Nowcasting Day 0 Latest obs. Latest obs. Latest obs. Action

  18. Contributions • Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS • Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models--> most covering ‚the alps‘

  19. Contributions • Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS • Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models--> most covering ‚the alps‘ • Many hydrol. Models--> each for one (more) catchment

  20. Contributions • Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS • Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models--> most covering ‚the alps‘ • Quite a few hydrol. Models--> each for one (more) catchments • End users: to be determined & involved

  21. Time table Time • Evaluation etc. 2007 • Demonstration period: Aug to Nov 2006 (Jun/Jul desirable) • Test chain ready summer 2006 • High res. models tested: end 2005 • Hydrol. Models tested: end 2005 • Test cases defined: May 2005 • Definition of user needs: May 2005 • Set up of organisation end 2005 (done) • Financial resources: Start summer 2005 application asap (dependent on what/where/etc) • Proposal WWRP: spring 2005 • Start: May 2004 June to Nov 2007 ??

  22. Thank you for your attention

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