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Big Ideas of PROBABILITY

Big Ideas of PROBABILITY. Math 1614 Unit 6. Probability is on a continuum. The probability that a future event will occur can be characterized along a continuum from impossible to certain. In B. What’s the Chance? Ladder from “Sure Not to Happen” up to “Sure to Happen”.

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Big Ideas of PROBABILITY

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  1. Big Ideas of PROBABILITY Math 1614 Unit 6

  2. Probability is on a continuum • The probability that a future event will occur can be characterized along a continuum from impossible to certain. • In B. What’s the Chance? • Ladder from “Sure Not to Happen” up to “Sure to Happen”

  3. Probability as a number • The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1. This number is the measure of the chance that a given event will occur. • Probability of 0 (0%) indicates impossibility. • Probability of 1 (100%) indicates certainty. • Probability of 1/2 (50%) indicates an even chance of the event occurring. • In B. What’s the Chance? • “Match ‘Em Up” and “Frog Newton”

  4. Chance has no memory! • For repeated trials of a simple experiment, the outcomes of prior trials have no impact on the next • When tossing a coin, the chance occurrence of 6 heads in a row has no effect on getting a head on the next toss. That chance remains 50-50. • In C. Let the Good Times Roll

  5. Experimental probability • The relative frequency of outcomes of an event (experimental probability) can be used as an estimate of the exact probability of an event. • The larger the number of trials, the better the estimate will be. The results for a small number of trials may be quite different than those experienced in the long run. • In C. Let the Good Times Roll

  6. Theoretical probability • For some events, the exact probability can be determined by an analysis of the event itself. This probability is called a theoretical probability. • In D. Let Me Count the Ways • “Mazes” and Tree Diagrams

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