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Uncovering the Media Mix: Attribution and ROI Analysis for Marketers

Discover the optimal media mix to maximize sales and ROI. Explore media attribution models, econometric modeling, and digital attribution to map media plans and measure their contribution to sales.

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Uncovering the Media Mix: Attribution and ROI Analysis for Marketers

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  1. ATTRIBUTION CONUNDRUM[ DISCOVERING THE OPTIMAL MEDIA MIX]

  2. CONNECTING THE CONSUMER JOURNEY WORD OF MOUTH RATIONALITY INERTIA PERCEPTION TV OOH DESKTOP TABLET AI ALEXA SOCIAL MEDIA MOBILE RADIO SCHOOL OR WORK PTA COMPETITIVE SOV

  3. WHAT MARKETERS WANT TO KNOW: MEDIA’S OVERALL CONTRIBUTION TO SALES SENSITIVITY: POINT OF DIMINISHING RETURN SYNERGY BETWEEN MEDIA CHANNELS ATTRIBUTION & LIFT TO INVESTMENT MEDIA PLANS MAPPED TO SALES OR OTHER KPIs COST PER INCREMENTAL SALE & ROI ANALYSIS

  4. ATTRIBUTIONIS LIKE THIS…

  5. THREE TYPES OF ATTRIBUTION ➀ ➁ ➂ MEDIA MIX MODELING ECONOMETRIC MODELING DIGITAL ATTRIBUTION MULTI-TOUCH ATTRIBUTION MEDIA OMNIVU™ • Linear regression analysis, direct correlation of media exposure to sales • Can be useful for brands where media mix is the same YOY • Can tie in some exogenous variables, like weather • Captures and integrates consumer behavior and mindsets • Includes competitive influences • “What if” scenarios forecast sales • Quantifies value of brand • Digital journey only • Attribution of upper funnel ad units to lower funnel (SEM, programmatic conversion & retargeting)

  6. DIGITAL ATTRIBUTION (MTA) • PROBLEMS SOLVED: • Fractional value of upper funnel online tactics to lower funnel tactics, e.g. social media to display. • Movement away from last-touchpoint myopia • Optimizes online digital journey to online KPI • Reverse engineer/automate digital media buy against KPI • PROBLEMS NOT SOLVED: • Relationship of online media to offline KPIs (e.g. sales) • Relationship of offline media to online media, although some bolting econometric modeling onto digital multi-touch attribution. • PROVIDERS: • Visual IQ (owned by Nielsen) • C3 Metrics • Conversion Logic ➀ DIGITAL ATTRIBUTION MULTI-TOUCH ATTRIBUTION MEDIA MIX MODELING ECONOMETRIC MODELING MEDIA OMNIVU™ • Digital journey only • Attribution of upper funnel ad units to lower funnel (SEM, programmatic conversion & retargeting) • Algorithmic + technology solution.

  7. ECONOMETRIC MODELING: ATTRIBUTION • PROBLEMS SOLVED • ROI of each media channel • Synergistic Impact of one channel to another • Forecast Outcome • PROBLEMS NOT SOLVED • Impact of untried media channels • Attribution “signal” if media mix changes YOY or media is flighted. • Expensive for regional brands • Contribution of branding metrics to media mix • PROVIDERS • Neustar Marketing • Nielsen (Stitching together Visual IQ) • Adometry (Owned by Google) • Convertro (Owned by AOL) MEDIA MIX MODELING ECONOMETRIC MODELING MEDIA OMNIVU™ ECONOMETRIC • Linear regression analysis, direct correlation of media exposure to sales • Can be useful for brands where media mix is the same YOY • Can tie in some exogenous variables, like weather

  8. MEDIA OMNIVU™ATTRIBUTION ➂ • PROBLEMS SOLVED: • Media mix. In context of brand health and in context of competitive noise. • Unification of silo’d data sets – e.g. brand tracking + media delivery data + PR + sales • Sales forecast against various media mixes • Point of diminishing return with media channel investment • PROBLEMS NOT SOLVED: • Reverse engineer media mix against KPI. • PROVIDERS: • Think Vine • Mediastruction MEDIA MIX MODELING ECONOMETRIC MODELING MEDIA OMNIVU™ • Captures and integrates consumer behavior and mindsets • Unifies datasets from media mix modeling, as well as brand tracking and competitive SOV • Uses Agent Based Modeling methodology and simulation technology

  9. VERIDIAN CREDIT UNION • Founded 1934 as John Deere Employees Credit Union, in Waterloo, Iowa • Now community charter • Geographic Field of Membership: Iowa and 6 Counties in Nebraska • 30 branches • Asset size: $4B • Membership: 222,000

  10. GOALS • How does marketing influence sales? • Which tactics have greatest impact? • How much do other variables play against or with marketing? (seasonality, economy, competitors, etc.) • What changes can be made in marketing approach to maximize results? • How can we prove marketing effectiveness?

  11. PURSUIT OF MARKETING IMPACT • Directional tracking of applications • Campaigns on/off, mediums used • Direct mail tracking and attribution • Known limitations of last contract attribution • Overall campaign ROI • All marketing channels; lift over natural sales, seasonality • Investment in spend levels

  12. DIRECT MAIL TRACKING • Tested 1x and 2x contacts • Incremental response yielded additional 11 loans and $65K balances vs 41 loans and $221K • ROI 752% - $7.52 additional profit • ROI balances - $107.17 • Simultaneous with external campaign May – Aug 2017

  13. CAMPAIGN ROI • Used in annual planning • Tracked rolling 12 mos: Oct – Sept • Tracks monthly • Spending on all marketing • Campaign on/off • Sales: calculate lift, simulate seasonality over 5 years • Annualized product profitability • Results • Loans and new memberships attributed to marketing based on lift value • Units, balances • Acquisition costs: loans, overall • ROI based on net profit • ROI based on net balances • Influence budget request for following year

  14. AGENT-BASED MODELING: BEHAVIORAL SCIENCEALGORITHMS IN MEDIA OMNIVU™ • More concretely and scientifically answers our questions • Ability to directly attribute marketing = sales • What if scenarios to measure change • Scientific method and model calibration • Measures impact of all media channels and activities together

  15. ABM PROCESS – CLIENT SIDE • Staff buy in • VP of Marketing, COO, CFO, Business Intelligence team • Team evangelist and coordinator • Data gathering process • ID products & market tested • Determine dependent variable • Identify data needed • Agree on data definition • MCIF • Data warehouse • Narrow based on geography • Data used • Product sales by week • Market share information • Rates and discounts • Brand Tracking studies • Location-based info: branches, ATMs • Media channels: spend, reach, impressions • Social impressions: paid, push • All: self, competitors

  16. Reporting:

  17. PROOFING THE MODEL Hold-out Calibration Weekly WAPE 7.9% Overall Error 2.2% Weekly WAPE 7.4% Overall Error 4.6% Calibration phase trains the model; Hold-out proofs model.

  18. PRODUCT X 2017 Attribution • We used the models to identify the relative impact of various factors on sales. • Paid Media accounts for 22% of product sales. Percent %, Accounts

  19. Impact Over Time: No Advertising for Product X

  20. COST PER INCREMENTAL SALE BY TOUCHPOINT

  21. PRODUCT X LIFETIME PROFIT • Lifetime profitability was calculated using yearly profitability values and assuming a 20% discount for 10 years.

  22. POINT OF DIMINISHING RETURN Customized Deliverables = Inflection Point + Sales Forecast

  23. VERIDIAN LEARNING & ACTION • Implement in 2019 planning • In-process of revamped media purchase approach • Further leverage volume discounts, pre-purchase to get lowest SQAD • Evaluation of media channels for each product line • Inflection point for various media channels to evaluate spend • Eliminate or reduce spend: terrestrial radio, print • Increase: digital, search • Cable vs. broadcast and when they work best

  24. VERIDIAN LEARNING & ACTION • Use to forecast unit sales based on 2019 anticipated media plan & check results • Modify overall campaign ROI reporting to use ABM media attribution figure for lift • Model impact of one product’s sales to another • Future: evaluate implemented changes and impact

  25. DIY SOLUTION: Correlations & trends

  26. METRICS vs. ANALYTICS The difference between “metrics” & “analytics” is the difference between “what” and “so what.” MEDIA MIX MODELING ECONOMETRIC MODELING MEDIA OMNIVU™

  27. TABLEAU DASHBOARD MEDIA MIX MODELING ECONOMETRIC MODELING MEDIA OMNIVU™

  28. TABLEAU DASHBOARD HOW TO: • Identify internal data champion/connector • Interdepartmental team meeting: Identify data available • Fuse data sets at cadence team determines • Potential to integrate R for forecasting PROBLEMS SOLVED: • Data repository created – centralized location • Visualization of data sets, especially as they relate to one another • Correlations of marketing exposure to response. Trend graphs. PROBLEMS NOT SOLVED: • Correlation = Causation • Value of each media channel not identified MEDIA MIX MODELING ECONOMETRIC MODELING MEDIA OMNIVU™

  29. IN SUMMARY MEDIA MIX MODELING ECONOMETRIC MODELING MEDIA OMNIVU™

  30. THANKYOU

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