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The 2008 Election in Retrospect as a Guide to the Latino Political Future

The 2008 Election in Retrospect as a Guide to the Latino Political Future. Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 14 November 18, 2008. Exam – November 20. Essay (60 percent) IDs – You answer four from six that I select from the list I distributed

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The 2008 Election in Retrospect as a Guide to the Latino Political Future

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  1. The 2008 Election in Retrospect as a Guide to the Latino Political Future Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 14 November 18, 2008

  2. Exam – November 20 • Essay (60 percent) • IDs – You answer four from six that I select from the list I distributed • The essay and the list of possible IDs posted to the class web site • Tips • Essay – use all sources – class, readings, readings posted to the web site; reference the author if you can • IDs – both define and state a significance to the study of Latinos and the 2008 elections

  3. The Question on Every Pundit’s Tongue “Is 2008 a Realigning Election? Numbers Offer Some Clues” - RealClearPolitics.com, November 11, 2008 [In the more extreme form] “A Permanent Democratic Majority?” -Salon.com November 13, 2008

  4. Review – Realigning Election • Election or series of elections where one routinely dominant coalition is replaced with another • Current era • 1968 – present – routinely divided government • 1980 – present – Republican dominance of the executive branch and dominant ideology of shrinking the size and scope of government

  5. Does 2008 Presage Change? • Yes, but realignments rely not just on a critical election, but the ability to provide the change that voters seek • So, what’s interesting in the short term about 2008 is set of governing resources that President-elect Obama can tap • Most noted among these by pundits is combination of strong Latino support and growth in the Latino electorate

  6. Change in the Democratic Governing Coalition • 2006 and 2008, Democrats gain • 12+ U.S. Senate seats • 50 U.S. House seats • 300 state legislative seats • House and state legislative gains concentrated in the Southwest and the border South • … and among 18 to 30 year old voters • Kerry -- +9 points • Obama -- +34 points

  7. Change in National Ideology, 1995-2008

  8. In This (Support for a Greater Government Role in People’s Lives), the Nation in Coming Around to the Latino Position Is this a short-term reaction to the world economic collapse?

  9. Change in the Electorate, By County 2004-08

  10. 2008 as a Realigning Election? • Something that we can know only after we see the relative success of • Obama administration efforts to enact policy • Popular reactions to those policies • An important test will be • Degree to which issues of importance to Latinos shape the Obama policy agenda • Seriousness with which Obama continues to court Latino support

  11. Regardless of the Long-Term Significance of the 2008 Elections How will the Latino Voice be felt?

  12. What We Know About the Future • Latino populations will grow • Intra-Latino diversity will increase • The Latino presence will expand in new parts of the United States • The first (immigrant) generation will make up a declining share of the Latino population • In the short term (and probably the long term), Latinos will need to rely on coalitional politics to achieve their political and policy goals

  13. Population Composition, 2000-2100 (current immigration levels)

  14. State Minority Populations, 2000-2025 42 57 25

  15. Immigrant/Native Shares – Latino Population

  16. Latino Age Composition, 2000 Immigrants / U.S. Born

  17. Generational Composition of Hispanic Population: 1960-2030

  18. Be Care in Reading Too Much Into These Changes, Latino Identity in Flux Even if current trends continue • Race/ethnic identities change • Latino identity faces four challenges • Rise of second and third+ generations • Pan-ethnicity • Decline in the salience of ethnic identity • Emergence of institutionally sanctioned and recognized multi-racial/multi-ethnic identities

  19. Population Growth Ensures that Latino Influence Will Increase • But, • It will not grow as quickly as population – resources for mobilization low • Competition for Latino political support often weakened by structural factors outside community’s control • Community leadership is weak and not growing • Consequence • Risk of alienation • Confusing distance with exclusion

  20. So • The future is bright • But, the future may be further away than many believe • If that future is too far off, many will move away from a Latino identity • Immigration continually reinforces identity • Immigration “reforms,” if implemented, will likely reduce immigration, particularly Mexican immigration • 2nd and beyond generations will make up increasing share of the Latino population • Will Latin America / Latino identity be of importance, particularly if immigration declines?

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