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Institutional Change, Stakeholders and Adaptation

Institutional Change, Stakeholders and Adaptation. How to account for socioeconomic change?. Scenarios: socioeconomic change represented by GDP, Population, assumptions of technological efficiency Problems? Decisions made in relation to shorter-term variability and “events”

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Institutional Change, Stakeholders and Adaptation

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  1. Institutional Change, Stakeholders and Adaptation

  2. How to account for socioeconomic change? • Scenarios: socioeconomic change represented by GDP, Population, assumptions of technological efficiency • Problems? • Decisions made in relation to shorter-term variability and “events” • Experience of socioeconomic variability not easily modeled • Intersector linkages not easily expressed or understood

  3. Why Worry about Institutional Change? • Decisions are rarely made in relation to climate risk alone • Institutional change matters • Can overwhelm signal of climatic variability and change • Can be highly variable and unpredictable • Can represent “shocks” to system, similar to climate • Limits and/or facilitates adaptation today and in the future

  4. Assumptions about Agricultural Adaptation • Farmers will perceive and respond efficiently to climate signal • Decisions on crop choice, management, inputs and labor are flexible, responsive to market prices • Households will act to optimize profits and/or yields • Adaptation options are within agricultural sector (Hanemann, 2000, Climatic Change)

  5. Case study inMexico Los Torres Plan de Ayala Nazareno Tlaxcala Puebla

  6. ? Climatic Hazards ? ENSO ? Rural industry Agriculture Farm Household ? Urban labor markets Institutional Change ? Neoliberalism, Privatization

  7. Stakeholders • Small-scale rainfed maize farmers • Small-scale commercial vegetable farmers • Agricultural extension and research • National University of Mexico (forecasts) • National Water Commission • Agricultural ministry (SAGARPA)

  8. Neoliberalismin Mexican Agriculture • “Commercially viable” farmers new beneficiaries of credit, insurance, extension, technology transfer • Stagnant or declining producer prices • Increased competition and obstacles to commercialization • New opportunities in rural industries and maquilas

  9. Consultations with Farmers • Community timelines: Important events, key changes in livelihoods • Key decisions re: sensitive activity(ies) • Surveys • Perceptions of tendencies of socio economic change (points of vulnerability/opportunity) • Non-climatic vs. climatic factors influencing decisions • Content, trends and implications of structuring factors

  10. Perceptions of Institutional Change • Subsistence community: Change has been positive: New availability of welfare support • Semi-commercial: Change has been mixed: New programs, but we are excluded. Input costs have risen, producer prices stagnated. • Small-scale commercial: Change has been mixed. Prices more variable, no insurance. New crops available, new market opportunities.

  11. Crop Diversification • Shorter-cycle crops are better adapted • Constraints: • No subsistence incentive • No economic incentive • Lack of insurance & credit

  12. Obstacles to crop choice • Land availability and tenure • Food insecurity and cultural preference • Market prices for “alternative” crops • Market access: lack of insurance, cost of production • Profitability and opportunity in livestock market

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