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Initial Operational Capability (IOC) Implementation at MSC

Initial Operational Capability (IOC) Implementation at MSC. Richard Hogue, Operations Branch, Canadian Meteorological Center. Second North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop NCEP November 16-18, 2004. Canadian Meteorological Center Ensemble Prediction System (EPS).

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Initial Operational Capability (IOC) Implementation at MSC

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  1. Initial Operational Capability (IOC) Implementation at MSC Richard Hogue, Operations Branch, Canadian Meteorological Center Second North American Ensemble Forecast System WorkshopNCEP November 16-18, 2004

  2. Canadian Meteorological Center Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) • CMC EPS started with 8 members (SEF T95) in quasi-operational mode in March 1996. • became operational in February 1998. • 8 new models (GEM) were added in August 1999. • products available on external Web page available in October 1999. • increased horizontal resolution to T149 in June 2001. Current operational configuration • 16 members • 10 day forecasts done once a day (00Z run) • perturbed analyses obtained from perturbed assimilation cycles • multi-model approach: SEF T150 and GEM 1.2º (~130km) • different model options used for both models

  3. Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) } perturbed trial fields perturbed observations 8 models each producing A data assimilation cycle perturbed analyses } • 16 forecast cycles • 8 SEF - T149 or ~150 km • 8 GEM - 1.2° or ~135 km • 10 days at 00 UTC doubling of the number of analyses models 16 members

  4. Combination of model perturbations SEF (T149) Add ops Convection/Radiation GWDGWDOrography Number Time level analysis version of levels 1 yes Kuo/ Garand Strong High altitude 0.3 23 3 2 no Manabe/ Sasamori Strong Low altitude 0.3 41 3 3 no Kuo/ Garand Weak Low altitude Mean 23 3 4 yes Manabe/ Sasamori Weak High altitude Mean 41 3 5 yes Manabe/ Sasamori Strong Low altitude Mean 23 2 6 no Kuo/ Garand Strong High altitude Mean 41 2 7 no Manabe/ Sasamori Weak High altitude 0.3 23 2 8 yes Kuo/ Garand Weak Low altitude 0.3 41 2 control mean Kuo/ Garand Mean Low altitude 0.15 41 3 GEM (1.20) Add ops Deep Shallow Soil Sponge Number Coriolis analysis convection convectionmoisture of levels 9 no Kuosym new Less 20% global 28 Implicit 10 yes RAS old Less 20% equatorial 28 Implicit 11 yes RAS old Less 20% global 28 Implicit 12 no Kuosym old More 20% global 28 Implicit 13 no Kuosym new More 20% global 28 Implicit 14 yes Kuosym new Less 20% global 28 Implicit 15 yes Kuosym old Less 20% global 28 Implicit 16 no OldKuo new More 20% global 28 Implicit

  5. Recent IOC milestones at CMC • Winter 2004: confirm common set of variables-levels (“Appendix 5”) • April 2004: addition of 3D humidity variable to the list • August 2004: addition of new variables to the CMC dataset: • CAPE, • Tmin, • Tmax • quantitative precipitation types

  6. List of “Appendix 5” Variables GRIB Terminology CMC Level(s) • 3D variables • HGT GZ 200, 250, 500,700, 850 , 925, 1000 (hPa) • TMP TT 200, 250,500,700, 850 , 925, 1000 (hPa) • UGRD UU 200, 250, 500,700, 850 , 925, 1000 (hPa) • VGRD VV 200, 250, 500,700, 850 , 925, 1000 (hPa) • DEPR ES 200, 250, 500, 700, 850, 925, 1000 (hPa) • TCDC NT SFC (0) • PWAT IH SFC (0) • Surface variables • UGRD UU 10m (12000) • VGRD VV 10m (12000) • TMP TT 2m (12000) • TMIN T7 2m (12000) • TMAX T8 2m (12000) • DEPR ES 2m (12000) • HGT GZ Eta=1 (12000) • CAPE BE SFC (12000) • PRES P0 SFC (0) • PRMSL PN MSL (0) • APCP PR SFC (0) Cummulative Total Precipitation • Precip Types Cummulative precipitation amounts for RN,SN,FR,PE • Wave Model Not yet available

  7. Recent IOC milestones at CMC • Winter 2004: confirm common set of variables-levels (“Appendix 5”) • April 2004: addition of 3D humidity variable to the list • August 2004: addition of new variables to the CMC dataset: • CAPE, • Tmin, • Tmax • quantitative precipitation types (rain, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets) • September 2004: • CMC GRIB dataset is complete as per Appendix 5 variables (except wave model) • final testing and validation of CMC grib encoding with NCEP (before the “freeze”) • October 2004 • Start of full Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) parallel run • Improvements to ensemble production runs: products available more than one hour earlier: • Before: around 07Z …… Now: around 5:45Z • Summer-fall 2004 : pull of NCEP ensemble dataset in development mode

  8. CMC EPS GRIB files for NCEP • Ensemble : 1 control, 8 SEF, 8 GEM • GRID : 1.2 x 1.2 (300 X 151 lat-lon) • DOMAIN: GLOBAL • FORMAT: WMO Grib 1 • Cycles : Presently 00Z cycle • HOURS : 000 to 240 hrs at 12 hour intervals • Files : 17 members x 11 files = 187 files • Total size: Approximately 1.2 Gb • Location : ftp.cmc.ec.gc.ca/pub/cmc/ncep • File content: all variables / all levels / 2 timesteps / file (similar to NCEP’s “standard pressure format”) efficient data packaging for post-processing…

  9. Telecom issues • Short term: • NCEP pulls CMC ensemble data via internet on CMC’s FTP site: very good access times (of the order of 30 minutes for 1.2 Gb) • CMC pulls NCEP ensemble data via internet on NWS’s FTP site: irregular and long access times: server load problems at NWS (of the order of 4 to 6 hours for 1.8 Gb) • Technical solutions are being investigated • Longer term: • Use of internet could be acceptable for IOC but …..reliability and timeliness will need to be high in full operational mode… • Increase in data volumes will require a more stable access to bandwidth • Need to consider dedicated telecom link or upgrade to current GTS link (T1)

  10. Summary • Excellent progress on the various aspects of data exchange and coordination • Temporary data access problems when pulling NCEP files: currently being investigated • Longer term issues with telecommunication to ensure a high level of timeliness and reliability • Consider transition towards common file packaging format for optimum post-processing • Plan for transition to GRIB2 (early 2006 ?) • Additions and improvements over the coming months : • Implementation of EnKF (January 2005) • Implement 12Z run of 16 members (February 2005) • Extension of forecast period to 15 days (May 2005)

  11. Additional slides follow … could be helpfull to answer questions….

  12. Canadian EPS set-up observations random numbers and perturbed observations data assimilation cycle data assimilation 6-h integration with models i, i=1,8 perturbed trial fields perturbed analyses ai, i=1,8 random numbers doubling of analyses, i=1,8 + perturbed surface fields: (Z0, SST, AL) and forecast cycle surface fields: (Z0, SST, AL) ai , a’i i=1,4 ai , a’i i=5,8 T149 or ~150 km 10 days 16 members medium-range integration with models i (SEF), i=1,8 each model i, i=1,8 and j, j=1,8 has its own physics parameterization medium-range forecast medium-range integration with models j (GEM), j=1,8 1.2° or ~135 km

  13. Doubling the OI-analysisensemble size

  14. CMC Cape calculation • Cape is calculated in post-production mode • Cape is calculated only for gridpoints which have lifted index < +3 • Gridpoints with values of -1 indicated no CAPE value has been calculated for that gridpoint • Some 0h members (001,004, 005, 008, 010, 011, 014 et 015) may not be at equilibrium at initialization and as so their CAPE values may be unrealiable • A new approach in intialization will correct this shortly

  15. CMC Tmin/Tmax calculation • Tmin & Tmax calculated in post-processing mode • Max/Min surface temperatures are presently calculated over a 12 hour period

  16. CMC Precipitation Type Information • CMC dataset offers quantitative precipitation amounts for 4 types of precipitation: rain, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets • Our algorithm used is the Bourgouin method: • Weather and Forecasting (Bourgouin, Pierre. 2000: A Method to Determine Precipitation Types. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 583-592. or http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?request=get-document&issn=1520-0434&volume=015&issue=05&page=0583) • For each 12-hour period, each member of the Canadian EPS forecasts precipitation amounts expected to fall as rain, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets separately (i.e. four fields). • We could also further include dominant type of precipitation per time interval but this would have to be further discussed and agreed upon • NCEP only provides categorical occurrence (0-1) of each precip type.

  17. Regional and global GRIB data access Follows MSC's data access policy to give free access to generic model datasets in a convenient fashion http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/grib/index_e.html • Low resolution regional (60km) and global (2deg.) model outputs : free access • High resolution model outputs (24km and 1deg.): password protected (registration required) • fall 2004: increase resolution from 24km to 15km for regional outputs • January 2005: addition of ensemble forecasts in GRIB addition of wave model outputs in GRIB addition of other types of data ….

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