Policy Options for Sustainable Development in Urban Transport

1. Policy Options for Sustainable Development in Urban Transport Yang Yang, Tufts University

2. Urban Transportation vs. Economic Development • Urban transportation vs. GDP • Beijing—car ownership increased with annual rate of 15.05% since 2000 [Wang and Liu,2008] • Urban transportation policies: • Private car control • Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) update • Tax adjustment for special cars • Fuel tax policy • Purchase tax towards consumers • Tradable carbon permits • Traffic congestion charges • Clean energy technology development and • Etc. Monaco Luxembourg Iceland Italy Malta Switzerland Norway Denmark Croatia Japan Korea Mexico Singapore Hong Kong SAR, China Incomes’ Effect on Vehicle Ownership

3. Method & Analysis structure • Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP): • Activity analysis—Used before for transportation policies • Beijing [Zhu and Jiang, 2003] • Delhi [Bose, 1996] • Stock analysis • Transport analysis—In this study

4. Method & Analysis structure Bus & Trolley Bus & Trolley Historical Transportation Demand Historical Transportation Demand Public Transport Public Transport Historical GDP Historical GDP BRT & metro BRT & metro • Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP): • Activity analysis—Used before for transportation policies • Beijing [Zhu and Jiang, 2003] • Delhi [Bose, 1996] • Stock analysis • Transport analysis—In this study • Transport analysis in this study: • Stock • Sales of vehicles • Vehicle age impacts • Outline of the analysis structure Future GDP Future GDP Taxi Taxi Passenger Travel Mileage and Vehicle Sales Passenger Travel Mileage and Vehicle Sales IndividualTransport IndividualTransport Private Cars Private Cars Transport DemandForecast Transport Demand Forecast Commercial Transport Commercial Transport Commercial Coach Commercial Coach Energy Demand Modules Energy Demand Modules Energy Consumption = Vehicle Ownership × Mileage × Fuel Economy TDt=∑Vi,t×Di×Lfi TDt—the total travel demand in year t expressed in pass-km Vi,t—the number of vehiclesi registered in year t Di —the average distance of vehicle i (km) Lfi—the load factor of vehiclei or the average number of occupants (passenger/vehicle). LEAP Model Emission Loading Module

5. “Business as Usual” Four“Alternative Scenarios” Historical Transportation Demand Historical GDP • Compare results in: • Travel mileage • Total energy demand, energy structures and • Emissions • Data source—government and non-government agencies • National Research Council • National Development and Reform Commission • China Automotive Technology and Research Center • Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China • … Fuel Tax Future GDP Fuel Economy TransportDemandForecast • Public Transportation Development and Restrictions Clean and Alternative Energy Development Energy Demand Modules LEAP Model Emission Loading Module

6. Scenario Settings I: Fuel Tax Historical Transportation Demand Historical GDP Fuel Tax Future GDP Fuel tax in BAU 18% in gasoline and 20% in diesel => 42% in gasoline and 27% in diesel by 2020 TransportDemandForecast • CO Petrol HC Diesel LPG • NOx Energy Demand Modules CNG • PM10 Energy Intensity • SO2 Hydrogen Electric • CO2 LEAP Model Emission Loading Module Emission Intensity

7. Scenario Settings II: Fuel Economy Historical Transportation Demand Historical GDP Future GDP Fuel Economy TransportDemandForecast • CO Petrol HC Diesel Fuel economy of light commercial vehicles will be reduced to 90% in gasoline and 91% in diesel by the end of 2011 LPG • NOx Energy Demand Modules CNG • PM10 Energy Intensity • SO2 Hydrogen Electric • CO2 LEAP Model Emission Loading Module Emission Intensity

8. Scenario Settings III: Public Transportation Development and Restrictions Bus & Trolley Public Transport BRT & metro Passenger Travel Mileage and Vehicle Sales Historical Transportation Demand Historical GDP • Public Transportation Development and Restrictions Taxi Future GDP IndividualTransport Private Cars Commercial Transport TransportDemandForecast Commercial Coach Energy Demand Modules Energy Intensity • Total proportion of public transportation traveling is 45% by 2012, with Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) taking 3% -5% and rail network taking 50%. • Rail network mileage will increase to 560 kilometers, by 2020 LEAP Model Emission Loading Module Emission Intensity

9. Scenario Settings IV: Development of Clean Energy and Alternative Energy Historical Transportation Demand Historical GDP Future GDP TransportDemandForecast • CO Petrol Diesel HC LPG • NOx Energy Demand Modules • PM10 CNG Energy Intensity Hydrogen • SO2 • CO2 Electric LEAP Model Clean and Alternative Energy Development 2010 2020 Emission Loading Module Emission Intensity

10. Results of All Scenarios: Energy Consumption An equivalent 12 thousand tons of oil Business as Usual Fuel Economy Clean Energy and Alternative Energy Development Fuel Tax Public Transportation Development and Restriction Energy consumption by 2020 (unit: GJ)

11. Results of All Scenarios: Energy Structure Business as Usual Fuel Economy Clean Energy and Alternative Energy Development Fuel Tax Public Transportation Development and Restriction Fuel mix by 2020: Percentage plot zoomed in to 84% and above (unit:%)

12. Results of All Scenarios: Travel Mileage Changes in annual travel mileage: Public Transportation Development and Restrictions Business as Usual Billion km Billion km 2008 2010 2015 2020 2008 2010 2015 2020

13. Results of All Scenarios: emissions Emissions data excerpted from forecasted result of year 2020:

14. Results of All Scenarios: emissions

15. Fuel tax vs. Clean Energy—CO2 Emissions CO2 Emissions (Mt) Year

16. Conclusions: • Fuel tax is an effective option in the short term, but may suffer from rebound effect in the long run • Clean energy is a more sustainable way to reduce emissions and energy consumption, in the long run • Public Transportation provides people a stable alternative choice in the long run • Fuel economy is not considered as a significant policy here Policies should be implemented in an integrated way, and it may be an example for big cities in China or in other developing countries

17. Thank You for Your Attention!

18. command & control instruments • Fuel economy standards Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard in the US Top-Runner Program in Japan Mandatory policy about size of engines in South Korea's Voluntary agreement in Europe Limitations based on different weight of the vehicle in China

19. command & control instruments • Rules of limiting motor vehicles on the road according to number plate system • Effective • Temporary measure • But may lead to a new-round increase of travel demand • 2008 Aug.; 2008Oct.-2009Apr.-2010Apr-2012 Apr. • Now: 5million=>4million

20. economic incentive policies • Private car control Traffic congestion charges Car tax adjustment for special cars High tax towards automobile manufacturers Purchase tax towards consumers Vehicle quota system(VQS) Differential parking fees Road tolls Bridge tolls • Fuel tax policy Polluter Pays Principle(PPP) • Tradable carbon permits

21. persuasion & education instruments • Carpooling and the cycle and foot travel in Austria, Belgium, Canada, Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, New Zealand, etc • Speed limitation and Strengthened Drivers Licensing Test are introduced in Holland, France, Poland, Denmark, Nigeria • Green Travel-- Campaign of urban public transportation 100 Cities in China

22. Two major strategic policies • Public transportation development Highways, light rail transit, subways and bus rapid transits (BRTs) in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Nigeria • Clean and/or alternative energy technologies Compressed natural gas (CNG) Liquefied natural gas (LNG) Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) Biomass Hybrid, and Fuel cell vehicles

23. Another way:

24. Public Transportation Development • I calculate the travel mileages of private passenger transportation, commercial part in all sub-sectors, which means the annual travel demand in the different end-users.

25. Fuel Economy in China • In 2010, the fuel economy of private car in Beijing is restricted to 7.74 L/100 km. By 2011, the fuel consumption of light commercial vehicles is reduced to 91.0% in diesel and reduced to 90.3% in gasoline on average. But no relevant punishment is indicated. • FEeffect is more dependent on its standards and the frequency of FE adjustment. • But, China has not yet established a set of corresponding incentive measures, which will undermine the real effectiveness. • FE is not considered as a significant policy in current scenario analysis. Although, FE can contribute to save fuel but it takes time for China to complete corresponding supporting policies .

26. Fuel tax vs. Clean Energy CO2 Emissions Mt Year