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Consumption and Sustainability: A Quantitative Approach Based on T21 China

You cannot solve the problem with the same thinking that created the problem Albert Einstein. Consumption and Sustainability: A Quantitative Approach Based on T21 China. Weishuang Qu, Ph.D. Director of Modeling and Analysis Millennium Institute January , 2013. Growth during 1990 – 2008.

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Consumption and Sustainability: A Quantitative Approach Based on T21 China

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  1. You cannot solve the problem with the same thinking that created the problemAlbert Einstein Consumption and Sustainability: A Quantitative Approach Based on T21 China Weishuang Qu, Ph.D.Director of Modeling and Analysis Millennium InstituteJanuary, 2013

  2. Growth during 1990 – 2008 • Population: 16% • Real GDP: 438% (9.8% pa) • GHG emissions: 2.5 B Ton to 7.2 B Ton • Export and consumption driven

  3. Consumption growth 1990 – 2008 • Vehicles: 5 M to 50 M (2012: 109 M) • Per capita living space: 13.7 M2 to 29.5 M2 • Soybean import: 0 to over 30 M Tons (2012: 57 M) • Oil consumption: 120 MT to 400 MT • What do they mean?

  4. Vehicle: • Average iron/steel: 2 tons • Infrastructure (Parking space and paved roads) • Fuel consumption

  5. Living space, each square meter: • 300 - 400 kg of cement • 70 – 100 kg of steel • Heating, AC, lighting • Expansion of urban land

  6. Soybean imports of 30 MT: • At yield of 2 tons per hectare (actual yield: 1.4 – 1.9) • 15 M Ha extra land needed • 12.5% of China’s crop land (and irrigation water) • (Domestic soybean production: 15 M Tons)

  7. Oil consumption of 400 MT/Year: • 8 M Barrels/day • Half was imported • Fast growing • Domestic production: 200 MT/Year

  8. Where will China be in 2030? • Depends on policy, tech, awareness, others • Need a consistent, quantitative tool • T21 jointly developed by MI and ISTIC in 2009

  9. Features of T21: • Integrated (economy, social, and environment) and long term • Interactive, transparent, easy to operate • Client owned and maintained • What if analysis with alternative scenarios • 20 years of R&D

  10. Selected screens from T21 China: Overview

  11. Selected screens from T21 China: Causal diagram to involve stakeholders

  12. Selected screens from T21 China:Comparison with data to validate model

  13. Selected screens from T21 China:Policy screen

  14. Selected screens from T21 China:Policy change to gov expenditures

  15. Scenarios: • Business As Usual (BAU) • High consumption-low technology • Low consumption-high technology

  16. Policies/Assumptions for LowConsumpHighTech • Higher oil prices • Higher gas mileage • More renewable power generation • Faster technology advance in manufacturing and agriculture • Smaller living areas • Slower water demand growth

  17. Scenario output: oil demand

  18. Scenario summary for 2030

  19. Scenario analysis for LowConsumptionHighTech • GDP 15% lower, but still 300% of 2008 • Energy and fossil fuel emissions much improved (energy security) • Land (esp. crop land) and water much improved, indicating better food security • Unemployment could be a big issue for this scenario. Other policies needed, such as organic agriculture to absorb more rural labor

  20. Summary • Consumption patterns affect sustainability • A quantitative tool to help policy analysis • Identify potential benefits and costs • Model and script download: www.millennium-institute.org

  21. Thanks! Questions and comments? www.millennium-institute.org wq@millennium-institute.org

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