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U.S. Agricultural Trade Prospects

U.S. Agricultural Trade Prospects. Butler/Cunningham Conference Montgomery, AL November 8, 2004 Carol Goodloe, USDA. Shifting Composition of U.S. Exports. Bulk. Consumer/HVP. Intermediate. Shifting Destination of U.S. Exports. East Asia. NAFTA. China. EU. What’s Hot? What’s Not?.

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U.S. Agricultural Trade Prospects

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  1. U.S. Agricultural Trade Prospects Butler/Cunningham Conference Montgomery, AL November 8, 2004 Carol Goodloe, USDA

  2. Shifting Composition of U.S. Exports Bulk Consumer/HVP Intermediate

  3. Shifting Destination of U.S. Exports East Asia NAFTA China EU

  4. What’s Hot? What’s Not?

  5. Crops: U.S. Share of World Exports

  6. Meats: U.S. Share of World Exports

  7. Export Competition Remains Strong 2003/04 2013/14

  8. Where Does Alabama Fit In?

  9. Imports Take Off

  10. Reactions to Growing Imports • Trade Adjustment Assistance for Farmers • 2002 Trade Act • Price & income triggers, increased imports • Shrimp, catfish qualified • Increase in antidumping actions • Vietnamese catfish, Asian/South American shrimp • Among NAFTA partners: wheat, hogs, cattle, corn, beef, rice, HFCS, tomatoes, apples • Country of origin labeling – consumer right to know or protectionism?

  11. Corn Use Is Shifting

  12. U.S. Agricultural TradeSurplus Narrows Exports Imports

  13. Brazil’s Main Claims Against U.S. Cotton Programs • U.S. support to cotton exceeded 1992 • PFC, DP, MLA, CCP are support to cotton • U.S. support “seriously prejudiced” Brazil by suppressing world prices • Step 2 is illegal (domestic and export) • Export credit guarantees are export subsidies and are illegal for cotton

  14. Subsidies Suppress Prices

  15. U.S. Cotton Exports GainUnfair Market Share Foreign U.S.

  16. U.S. Rebuttal • U.S. support (rate) did not exceed 1992 • Effect of marketing loan program depends on expected prices at planting • Decoupled payments don’t support cotton • Export credit programs were not export subsidies under URAA • Step 2 is domestic support program • Other factors caused world prices to fall – China’s stocks, exchange rates, U.S. mill use

  17. U.S. Textile Imports Surge Imports Exports

  18. What the Panel Ruled • U.S. support exceeded 1992 • PFC/DPs aren’t green box (planting restrictions) • Price-based support suppressed prices • Step 2 is illegal (domestic and export) • Export credits are export subsidies • PFC/DP’s, crop insurance – no effect • No threat, no unfair world market share

  19. U.S. Agricultural Trade At a Crossroads? • Feeling the pinch from imports – TAA for Farmers, AD actions, COOL • WTO Dispute Settlement Panel -- Brazil challenge to U.S. cotton programs • How will Doha Round play out? U.S. subsidies versus market access • Next Farm Bill in 2007 – trade agreements, budget constraints

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