The Politics and Policy of Immigration Reform: 2005-2009

1. The Politics and Policy of Immigration Reform:2005-2009 Political Science 126C / Chicano/Latino Studies 163 Lecture 11 February 17, 2009

2. Today • Pressures on Congress (and in the society) to reform immigration • The 2005-2008 Congressional debates

3. Outcome of Current Debate Likely to be Major Reform • Possibility 1 – Significant revision to 1965 Act while maintaining its principles • Family unification, meeting national labor needs, refugee admissions with minimal bias by region or national origin • Possibility 2 – Replacement of 1965 Act with new immigration framework • Rare in U.S. immigration history • Until then, stalemate • Stalemate needs to be seen as a policy option • Some (maybe the majority of interested parties) see stalemate as better than some of the possible changes

4. Why now? Possible reasons • Demographic • Economic • Populist/political • Ethnic • Likely answer is some blend of each of these • Important to consider as resolution in contentious pluralist debates (like immigration reform) will recognize organization of interests and volume of demand making

5. Demographic • Size of immigrant population, either in raw numbers or as share of national population • Size of the unauthorized population, again in absolute numbers or as a share of the (immigrant) population • Dispersion of immigrant/unauthorized immigrant population • Characteristics of immigrants and perceptions of their political or economic contribution to U.S. society

6. Economic • Demand for labor not being met by native workers • Changing needs of the U.S. economy • Labor competition between immigrants and natives • Costs of providing services to immigrants (including their U.S. citizen children) • Global competition for skilled workers and “investors” • In the past, economic downturns • This may exacerbate tensions in the current debate, but it emerged during a robust economy

7. Populist/Political • Opportunity to separate oneself from the pack, e.g. Tom Tancredo or John McCain • Identifying immigration-related issues as part of a larger phenomenon, e.g. Lou Dobbs and the decline of the middle class • More traditional nativism – the Minutemen • Focus for community-level organizing in immigrant/ethnic communities or by other interested groups (labor unions)

8. Ethnic • Elite – Tool to show newly emerging political influence and ethnic solidarity • Mass – Resource to mobilize populations that have been more focused on transnational issues or have been distant from politics • Some aspects of immigration “reform” hit home more than any other issue in U.S. politics • Long-term – Will shape how immigrant/ethnic populations connect to the political parties for a generation

9. Why Does the “Why Now” Matter? • Each of these factors is salient to some in Congress (and in the population more generally) • To the extent that one comes to dominate, it could dramatically shape the eventual bill: • Demographic – An overall cap on immigration; new enforcement of restrictions on unauthorized migration • Economic – Limits on legal immigration by education/skill; guest worker programs • Populist/political – New forms of nativism that focus on ethnic populations, not just immigrants • Ethnic – New leadership in ethnic communities; diminished expectations for incorporation

10. Today • Pressures on Congress (and in the society) to reform immigration • The 2005-2008 Congressional debates

11. Roots of Key Elements of Contemporary Debate • When does the story begin? • 1976 – Fear of the unauthorized • 1986 – IRCA • 1990s • New restrictions on legal immigration and easier deportation • Steadily increasing border enforcement • Congressional rejection of an overall cap on immigration • 9/11 and concerns about immigrants and international security

12. Piecemeal Responses, Avoiding Major Compromise • “Militarization” of the border (1990s) • Early Bush outreach to Mexico/Latinos (Summer 2001) • Set pattern – Bush proposed a guest worker program, but implied openness to legalization • Quick rebuke from other Republican leaders • 9/11/2001 – Puts debate on hold as Congress/President explore immigration and security • USA Patriot Act • Surging economy acts as lure for unauthorized migrants

13. Evolution of the Debate • Returned to Congressional discussion in 2004/2005 • Decline of post-9/11 security concerns • Dramatic growth in unauthorized population (wide recognition of 12 million figure) and recognition of its dispersion • Bush again proposes guest worker program with implied willingness to include legalization in some form • Emergence of populist anti-immigrant movement (concentrated in states key to 2008 primary election) • Democrats largely silent in this period, seeing Republican division opportunistically • Not raised in 2004 presidential election

14. 2005 – House of Representatives Acted Preemptively • H.R. 4437 • Fence/enforcement • Unauthorized status a felony • Employer penalties • Authorizes use of the military to enforce immigration law • No guest worker program or legalization • Why? • Preemptive of President and moderate Republicans in the Senate • Republican leaders didn’t see felonization as good policy (didn’t expect it to have any effect), but spoke to popular concerns

15. Generates Pro-Immigrant Populist Marches • Added another voice to the debate • Forced Democratic members of Congress (the Senate) into the debate • Ensured that 2008 Democratic candidates supported “comprehensive” reform (legalization as part of any bill)

16. U.S. Senate Response S. 2601 (2006) • New funding for border and interior enforcement • Three forms of legalization • Path to permanent residence for unauthorized migrants who had resided in the U.S. for five years • Three year temporary residence for unauthorized migrants who had resided in U.S. for 2 to 5 years, • Path to permanent residence with return to country of origin • Guest worker visa – up to 6 years, with ultimate path to permanent residence • Overall cap on legal immigration (2007-2016)

17. End of 2006 Legislative Session • Neither House nor Senate compromised, so neither bill passed • Both agreed on an enforcement bill • Immigration played a role in a handful of Congressional races • Assumption that 2007-08 session would be more reception to “comprehensive” immigration reform because of Democratic control of both houses of Congress and President Bush’s need for a domestic legacy