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Meso-α: Easterly wave critical layer Isolated recirculation regions Inertia gravity waves

Consideration of horizontal scales exposes the challenging nature of the problem. ln E. Downscale Enstrophy Cascade. Meso-β: TC, MCS, gravity waves 20 – 200 km. Upscale Energy Cascade. ln k. Synoptic Easterly Waves Hydro instability of ITCZ Subtropical intrusions 2,000 – 8,000 km.

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Meso-α: Easterly wave critical layer Isolated recirculation regions Inertia gravity waves

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  1. Consideration of horizontal scales exposes thechallenging nature of the problem ln E Downscale Enstrophy Cascade Meso-β: TC, MCS, gravity waves 20 – 200 km Upscale Energy Cascade ln k Synoptic Easterly Waves Hydro instability of ITCZ Subtropical intrusions 2,000 – 8,000 km Meso-α: Easterly wave critical layer Isolated recirculation regions Inertia gravity waves 200 – 2,000 km Meso-γ: VHTs, Congestus, Precip. Driven downdrafts, Gust fronts 2 – 20 km

  2. Wave-Pouch Tracking Methodology • Front page imagery • Methodology for determining initial position • Phase speed determination • Zonal method (RH & v) • Oblique method • Track creation • Methodology for determining level • Meso- diagnostics • Zeta, OW, RH, Vertical Shear • Satellite/analysis (over to LeeJoice)

  3. 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary

  4. 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary

  5. 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary

  6. 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary

  7. 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary

  8. New Diagnostics Wish List • ‘Diabatic Activation’ (i.e., persistent convective activity). Use visible/infrared/microwave satellite imagery • Warm & dry air from middle level tropical atmosphere or African continent (SAL products, real time ? …) • Trade wind inversion (real time) • CAPE (real time) • CIN (real time)

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