The Millennium Project

1. The Millennium Project Global Challenges and Futures Research Methodologies for the UN Jerome C. Glenn Director, The Millennium Project World Federation of UN Associations

2. Outline • Increasing complexity and change requires upgrades to futures research systems • The Millennium Project • Prospects for Global Challenges • Examples of futures research methods • Some applications for the UN • Open discussion

3. The Future will be more complex and change more rapidly… …than most people think • The factors that made such changes are changing faster now, than 25 years ago • Therefore, the next 25 years should make the speed of change over the last 25 years seem slow • Hence, we need to upgrade futures assessment and strategy capacities

4. s 2050 2025 2008 Wikipedia

5. The Millennium Project ... is a new kind of think tank…established in 1996…after a 3-year feasibility study

6. UN Universities Organizations Governments Corporations NGOs Millennium Project … May become a TransInstitution

7. Millennium Project Nodes...are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

8. Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment 1996-97 15 Issues with 131 Actions 182 Developments 1999-2007 Global Challenges • General description • Regional views • Actions • Indicators 15 Challenges with 213 Actions 1998-99 & Distilled Into 1997-98 15 Opportunities with 213 Actions 180 Developments 2000-2007 State of the Future Index (SOFI) National SOFIs SOFI Real Time Delphi

9. 15 Global Challenges–the Agenda today How can sustainable development be achieved for all? 1 How can sustainable development be achieved for all? How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 2 How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 15 How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 3 How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 4 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 14 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? 5 How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 13 How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 6 How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 12 How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 7 11 How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? 10 8 How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? 9

11. Table Contents (print section – 100 pages) • Executive Summary • 15 Global Challenges • State of the Future Index • Real-Time Delphi • Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination • Global Energy Collective Intelligence

12. Table of Contents (CD section – 6,300 pages) • 1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages) • 2. State of the Future Index Section2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages) • 3. Global Scenarios 3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages) • 4. Governance-related Studies4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination 4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages) • 5. Science and Technology5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages) • 6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence • 7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages) • 8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development 8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)

13. Table of Contents (CD section) • 9. Environmental Security 9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages) • 10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages) • 11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages) • AppendicesAppendix A: Millennium Project ParticipantsAppendix B: State of the Future Index SectionAppendix C: Global Scenarios Appendix D: Science and TechnologyAppendix E: Global Energy Collective IntelligenceAppendix F: Government Future Strategy UnitsAppendix G: Education and Learning 2030Appendix H: Global EthicsAppendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050Appendix J: World Leaders on Global ChallengesAppendix K: Environmental Security StudiesAppendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in DecisionmakingAppendix N: Real Time Delphi ProcessAppendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario SetsAppendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies:          Ethics Related Organizations           Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research          Women/Gender OrganizationsAppendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project

14. State of the Future is published around the world • Chinese Editions: Chinese Finance and Economic Publishing House and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Peoples Republic of China • Spanish Editions: Externado University, Bogotá, Colombia and Teachers Union in Mexico • Korean Editions: MaeKyung Publishing Inc., Seoul, Korea • Arabic Edition: Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt • French Edition: l’Institut Destrée, Namur–Wallonie, Belguim • Farsi Editions, MATN Co., and the Ministry of Islamic Culture and Guidance, Tehran, Iran • Czech and Slovak Editions: Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; and Academy of Science Bratislava, Slovak Republic • Russian & Azuri Edition, Azerbaijan Futures Society, Baku Azerbaijan • Partial translations in Japanese, German, and Portuguese

15. Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0 1. Introduction & Overview 15. Simulation and Games 2. Environmental Scanning 16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, Intuition 3. Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting 4. Futures Wheel 18. S&T Road Mapping 5. Trend Impact Analysis 19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) 6. Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight 7. Structural Analysis 21. Agent Modeling 8. Systems Perspectives 22. SOFI 9. Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software 10. Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept 11. Technological Sequence Analysis 25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning 12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis 26. Causal Layered Analysis 13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios 27. Integration, Comparisons, and 14. Participatory Methods Frontiers of Futures Research Methods

16. 1. Introduction to the Futures Research 1.5 Evaluation and organization of Methods 2. Environmental Scanning 3. The Delphi Method 4. Real-Time Delphi 5. The Futures Wheel 6. The Futures Polygon i7. Trend Impact Analysis 8. Cross-Impact Analysis 9. Wild Cards 10. Structural Analysis 11. The Systems Perspectives 12. Decision Modeling l13. Substitution Analysis 14. Statistical Modeling l15. Technology Sequence 16. Morphological Analysis 17. Relevance Trees 18. Scenarios 19. Interactive Scenarios (software) 20. Robust Decisionmaking 21. Participatory Methods 22. Simulation and Games 23. Genius Forecasting and Intuition 24. Visioning for Strategic Planning 25. Normative Forecasting 26. TRIZ 27. S&T Road Mapping 28. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) 29. Text Mining for Technology Foresight 30. Agent Modeling (demo software) 31. Prediction Markets 32. Forecasting By Artificial Neural Networks 33. State of the Future Index 34. SOFI Software System 35. Multiple Perspective Concept 36. A Toolbox for Scenario Planning 37. Heuristics Modeling 38. Personal Futures 39. Causal Layered Analysis 40. Linking Methods 41. Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 (Spring 2009)

17. Upgrading UN Futures Systems • Connect government and UN agency future strategy units via Web/intranet with the Offices of the SG • Create an interoperable global futures scanning system in the SG’s Office and in each major UN organ • Design a global situation room that integrates these scanning systems for the SG – it might initially focus on global climate change • Develop a UN integrated information system for just in time knowledge to support the Secretariat’s management • Use Real-time Delphi to rapidly collect best judgments world-wide to support decisionmaking • Connect UN-Gov Strategic Intranet, RT Delphi usage, UN situation room, and UN’s information system • Integrate UN indicators (HDI, MDGs, etc.) into an overall UN State of the Future Index

18. What should an Intranet connecting government & UN futures units be? • Information on each participating country and UN Agency futures unit including brief descriptions of each unit’s • Policy focus and time horizon • Methodologies used • Non-classified projects with a 10-15 word description of each projects' thrust + a contact person • Links to key resources (everyone could recommend their top 3 books, websites, comprehensive resources) • A Wiki and/or blog space for free-flowing discussion (pass word protected) • Internal email listserv

19. Generic Futures Scanning System Press Releases Newsletters Journals Monitor Specific Websites Key Word Internet Searching Conferences Seminars Key Persons Tracking SCANNING Analysis & Synthesis Individual Staff Management Collective Intelligence System Feedback & New Requirements Decisions Future-oriented understanding and learning Management

20. Real-Time Delphi • Developed in 2004 to increase the efficiency of the Delphi process • Rapid collection of expert judgments to aid decision making. • With Internet, participants can see feedback instantly, participate where and when is convenient. • Roundless – Participant returns to edit as many times as he/she likes until the deadline

21. Real-Time Delphi (example)

22. Collective Intelligence Is an emergent property from synergies among data/info/knowledge software/hardware experts that continually learns from feedback to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone. Wikipedia is an early example. GENIS is another.

23. GENIS (Global Energy Network and Information System) • The Global Energy Network (GEN), providing communications and collaboration capabilities for a worldwide community of experts and others working on, or concerned with, energy issues; • The Global Energy Information System (GEIS), a repository (knowledge base) and associated interactive access facility for as much of the world's total knowledge (actual content, pointers to external systems, and ability to mashup from other databases into one integrated set of outputs) about energy as can be accumulated.

24. Conventional user interface will be offered as well as alternatives

25. User interfaces should show relation of parts and the whole

26. An Information unit can be: • linked with ‘attributes’ – see right column • edited wikipedia-like by GEN • Receive additional inputs to be added to open-ended non-peer reviewed

27. Issue overview display wiki

28. Energy Dashboard

29. State of the Future Index (SOFI) • A synthesis of variables to help answer the question “Is the future getting better or worse?” • A tool for • Policy analysis • Improving discussion about the future • Education • National comparisons

30. Population lacking access to improved water sources (percent of population) • Literacy rate, adult total (percent of people aged 15 and above) • Levels of corruption (15 largest countries) • School enrollment, secondary (percent gross) • Poverty headcount ratio at $1 a day (PPP) (percent of population) (low- and middle-income countries) • Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons (number) • Carbon dioxide emissions (global, kt) • Unemployment, total (percent of total labor force) • GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2000 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) • Number of major armed conflicts (number of deaths >1,000) • Population growth (annual percent) • R&D expenditures (percent of national budget) • People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number) • Energy produced from non-fission, non-fossil sources (percent of total primary energy supply) • Food availability (cal/cap) • Population in countries that are free (percent of total global population) • Global surface temperature anomalies • GDP per capita (constant 2000 $) • People voting in elections (percent population of voting age) • Physicians (per 1,000 population)(surrogate for health care workers) • Internet users (per 1,000 population) • Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 births) • Forestland (percent of all land area) • Life expectancy at birth (years) • Women in parliaments (percent of all members) • Number of refugees (per 100,000 total population) • Total debt service (percent of GNI) (low- and middle-income countries) • Prevalence of HIV (percent of population) • Homicides, intentional (per 100,000 population)

31. Considering Future Impacts: 2007 Global SOFI

32. What’s Getting Better

33. What’s Getting Worse

34. TransInstutions Board/Committee/Council: self-selected governments, corporations, NGOs, Universities but not a majority from any one institutional category People who work in it or with it come from all these institutional categories, but not a majority of any one Results affect all these institutional categories Income from all these institutional categories except university (then take not give money) TransInstitutions could be created for each of the UN Millennium Development Goals

35. Executive Summary • 15 Global Challenges • State of the Future Index • Real-Time Delphi • Gov Future Strategy Unite • Global Energy Collective Intelligence • Environmental Security • Plus 6,300-page CD of 12 years’ collective research from the Millennium Project

36. For further information Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax JGLENN@IGC.ORG WEB 1.0 www.StateoftheFuture.org WEB 2.0 www.mpcollab.org

37. Current Sponsors of the Millennium Project • Applied Materials (overhead) • Azerbaijan Ministry of Communications (Government training) • Deloitte & Touche, LLP (overhead) • Foundation for the Future (Energy Collective Intelligence design) • Government of the Republic of Korea (Korean SOFI & Gov Strategy units) • The Hershey Company (overhead and RT Delphi) • Rockefeller Foundation (Futures Research Methodology 3.0 and capacity for Developing countries • U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute (Environmental Security reports) • UNESCO (use of RT Delphi for World Water Scenarios) • World Bank (via World Perspectives, Inc. use of RT Delphi to evaluation of Global Environment Facility)

38. If we have time…

39. Futures Wheel

40. Cross-impact trends and/or potential future events

41. Connecting Futures Researchto Decision-Making 1. Make sure leaders know what futures research is and is not 2. Include decision makers in the process, connect to strategic planning 3. Include workshops and training for decisionmakers 4. Include interest groups and actors 5. If goals are lacking, include as an issue 6. Determine who has responsibility to act 7. Balance long-term and short term views 8. Use at least one formal method that all understand 9. Provide information that demonstrates a crisis 10. Include knowledge about what is possible 11. Make options clear; connect to goals and strategies 12. Demonstrate feasibility of recommendations 13. Include subjective descriptions of alternative futures 

42. Futures Research and Decisionmaking(continued) 14. Connect costs to benefits 15. Suggest ways of making decisions in uncertainty 16. Include intended actions of others 17. Develop indicators 18. Using testimony of eminent scientists 19. Project affects of action or non action in scenarios 20. Show technical feasibility to overcome fear of failure 21. Use computer models 22. Link to similar activities 23. Avoid information overload 24. Allow time for individuals to integrate concepts 25. Include media 26. Make work integrative and cumulative

43. Notes to self - Collective Intelligence • emergent property from synergies among data/info/intel, software/hardware, and experts, that continually learns from feedback to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone. • CI is produced by people and information systems that produce just in time knowledge for better decision and insights • Wikipedia is an early example. GENIS is another.

44. Example of Output Forecast charts of this sort are available for all SOFI variables and are important and useful in identifying issues and creating policy

45. Definition of a Scenario: A scenario is a story with plausible cause and effect links that connects a future condition with the present, while illustrating key decisions, events, and consequences throughout the narrative.

46. A Scenario is not: • A projection – although projections are included in a scenario. • A discussion about a range of future possibilities with data and analysis – It is like confusing the text of a play's newspaper review with the text of the play written by the playwright.

47. Classic Herman Kahn Scenarios • Surprise-free, business-as-usual, reference, base-case scenario is a simple extrapolation of current trends and their interplay • Worst case scenario based on mismanagement and bad luck • Best case scenario based on good management and good luck.

48. “Scenario Space” Defined by Axes

49. Like it or not, the world is in our hands