Development Hypothesis or Theory of Change

1. Development Hypothesis or Theory of Change M&E Capacity Strengthening Workshop, Maputo 19 and 20 September 2011 Arif Rashid, TOPS

2. Development Hypothesis or Theory of Change • ………….Is a systematic exploration of the links between activities, outcomes, goal and the context. Slide # 1

3. DH or TC is a “Process and a “Product” • A structured thinking PROCESS that allows groups to turn their theories about what needs to change and why into a “causal pathway”. • A PRODUCT that illustrates the results of the change process. Slide # 2

4. What is a “Causal Pathway”? • A step-by-step backwards mapping process through which a group determines ALL the preconditions necessary to reach an ultimate goal. In USAID terminology this is called Development Hypothesis (ADS 201) Low Per Capita Income Low HH Income High dependency ratio HH members have low level of skills Limited employment opportunities Limited access to financial resources Large family size Single income earner in the HH Slide # 3

5. Elements of a Theory of Change/ Development Hypothesis • A pathway of change that shows the connections between longterm, intermediate and early outcomes • Statements that explain how the intervention fits along the pathway of change • Justifications that explain why the initiative expects change to occur Slide # 4

6. Why We Need One? • Participatory process • Creates realistic program expectations • Create a safe place to be reflective • Can improve monitoring and evaluation • Improves understanding about the program logic Slide # 5

7. Uses • Decision making: Whether to carry out an activity • Align of program activities with goals • Monitor the results chain • Evaluation Slide # 6

8. Other Advantages • Gaps between steps and outcomes become evident • Can refine project strategies to achieve the goal • Can revise the assumptions • Evaluations based on a theory carry more weight • Improves transparency Slide # 7

9. The Pathway of Change • Intervention • Output • Outcome • Intervention Influenced by our thinking • Higher level outcome • Output Pathway of change Underlying conditions • Outcome • Long term goal • Output • Intervention • Intervention • Higher level outcome • Outcome • Outcome • Output Learn from our actions Refine our thinking Slide # 8

10. Development Hypothesis “Steps” • Determine the Goal • Develop the Outcomes map • Identify which of the outcomes your project will address • Identify activities that will help achieve the outcomes Slide # 9

11. Causal Pathway to Results Framework Slide # 10

12. Overarching Goal Strategic Objective 2 Strategic Objective 1 Intermediate Result 1.2 Intermediate Result 1.1 Intermediate Result 2.1 Activities: a) b) c) Activities: a) b) c) Activities: a) b) c) Approximate correlation between RF and indicator levels Impact Indicators Higher level Outcome Indicators Low – medium level Outcome Indicators Outputs Processes Inputs Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation Slide # 11

13. Overarching Goal Strategic Objective 2 Strategic Objective 1 Intermediate Result 1.2 Intermediate Result 1.1 Intermediate Result 2.1 Activities: a) b) c) Activities: a) b) c) Activities: a) b) c) Basic Purposes of Results Framework PROJECT DESIGN/ PLANNING Impact Indicators Higher level Outcome Indicators Low – medium level Outcome Indicators COMMUNICATION MONITORING & EVALUATION Outputs Processes Inputs Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation Slide # 11

14. How will you know if you have succeeded • Identify indicators for each outcome you want to address. Example: • Outcome: Improved HH food production practices adopted and utilized • Change in yield (+) • Change in farm size (+) • Change in cropping intensity (+) Slide # 12

15. What must be determined for each indicator? • Who will be impacted? • How many will be impacted? • How much will it change? • When will it change by? Slide # 13

16. How will you measure the indicator • Determine: • What measurement tool to use? • When to measure? • Who will do the measurement? Slide # 14

17. Design Interventions • Determine the interventions (actions, strategies) to be used to achieve identified outcomes. What will be done, by who, how, and when? • Test your assumptions (Will these actions really work? Do your organization have the capacity to implement them? ) Slide # 15

18. Monitoring at every level helps pinpoint where a barrier may exist Families had to eat the seeds during the hungry months Goal • Poverty reduced • Household incomes remained unchanged SO • Farm incomes increased • Only 5 of 50 households produced the new crop. • Production of non-traditional crops increased IR • 1 bag of seed and 5 bags of fertilizer distributed to 50 households; • 50 households trained in cultivation of new crop. • We train farmers from 50 households to use new seeds, and • We distribute seeds and fertilizer Activities (Inputs) Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation Slide # 16

19. This presentation was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of Save the Children and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.