Pandemic Models

1. 10 Influenza Pandemic Models By Claude Penland, Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society www.CatRisky.com

2. What are we doing? • We will discuss some different types of influenza pandemic models. • This is not intended to be a comprehensive look at the state of pandemic modeling, and instead is merely a discussion of some interesting flu pandemic models.

3. What is a Pandemic? • Pandemics are infectious disease epidemics that spread across a wide region. • Recent pandemics include the flu pandemic of 2009 and the HIV pandemic. • Historical pandemics have also included outbreaks of tuberculosis and smallpox.

4. 1. Society of Actuaries • The Society of Actuaries’ model evaluates the potential impact on the United States life insurance industry. • Actuarial analysis looks at possible economic effects as well as potential excess insured mortality.

5. 2. Pandemic Influenza Policy Model • Military Medicine looks at a policy model for military public health officials. • This Pandemic Influenza Policy Model (PIPM) is a collaborative computer modeling effort between the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and U.S. Department of Defense. • Incidentally, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s “Best Practices and Model Protocols” provides many interesting discussions of model inputs.

6. 3. Risk Management Solutions • The model by a catastrophe risk modeling firm, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), supplies thousands of unique pandemic scenarios. • These vary based on demographics, virus infectiousness, vaccine production and efficacy, lethality of virus and pandemic lifecycle. • Additional information is available at “Managing Influenza Pandemic Risk”.

7. 4. FluTE • FluTE is an open source model. • The model is calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) and 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) influenza viruses.

8. 5. Milliman • Milliman, a consulting actuary, has modeled pandemics so that they may price mortality catastrophe bonds. • It is an actuarial model based on a frequency and severity approach.

9. 6. Epidemic Simulation System • The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), which is at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, has the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). • EpiSimS models the U.S. as fifteen regions. • Each region is composed of around 20 million synthetic individuals.

10. 7. INFORMS Simulation Society • At the INFORMS Simulation Society Winter Conference of 2009, a paper was presented on a simulation model for pandemic preparedness planning. • The paper presents a geospatial and temporal disease spread model for flu pandemics with particular attention paid to school closings.

11. 8. Global Epidemic Model • The Global Epidemic Model (GEM) enables testing of intervention strategies. • It uses uses population data and airline travel data to create an air travel network among the major metropolitan areas of the world. • It then models the course of the potential epidemic as it spreads around the world.

12. 9. VirSim • VirSim was developed to help support policy making. • Governments can decide on intervention strategies, and lost work and hospitalization effects on society are documented.

13. 10. University of South Florida • The University of South Florida’s model performs simulations for development of dynamic mitigation strategies.

14. Other Models • Some other models include Georgia Tech’s, The University of Western Australia’s, a Biological Model for Influenza Transmission, a model of Japan and an Avian-human influenza epidemic model.

15. Other Sources • Additional sources are PandemicSimulation.com, a pandemic simulation community website, NPR, The Scientist and MAA. • See www.CatRisky.com for catastrophe risk trends and news. • Thank you!