BRT Vehicles: Latest Technologies and Procurement Trends

1. BRT Vehicles: Latest Technologies and Procurement Trends Cliff Henke Sr. Analyst, BRT and Small Starts Parsons Brinckerhoff Americas APTA/TRB BRT Conference, Seattle May 2009

2. Topics Today What Is A BRT Vehicle? Example Vehicles Projects Market Trends Discussion

3. What�s A BRT Vehicle? Here is a continuum of the types of vehicles used in BRT, ranging on the left of the slide at the least expensive and most �off the shelf� to at the right end of the slide the most specialized and most expensive availableHere is a continuum of the types of vehicles used in BRT, ranging on the left of the slide at the least expensive and most �off the shelf� to at the right end of the slide the most specialized and most expensive available

4. The European bus design challenge

5. Las Vegas Has Led Challenge to U.S. Builders Driven by image and BRT needs

6. U.S. Manufacturers Have Responded Driven by environmental and BRT needs

7. North American Vehicles Now with Doors on Both Sides

8. High-Comfort, Amenities Interior Finish Large Windows Luggage Racks Information Grab Bars BRT vehicles typically involve attractive styling and amenities, some with luggage and parcel racks, most with big windows.BRT vehicles typically involve attractive styling and amenities, some with luggage and parcel racks, most with big windows.

9. Range of BRT Vehicles, Costs This slide represents some approximate prices based on typical contracts in the U.S. market. CNG typically adds $40,000 to the cost of a vehicle, while hybrid will add typically $175,000 for 40-footers to $200,000 plus for artics all else being equal.This slide represents some approximate prices based on typical contracts in the U.S. market. CNG typically adds $40,000 to the cost of a vehicle, while hybrid will add typically $175,000 for 40-footers to $200,000 plus for artics all else being equal.

10. What Onboard Technologies Are Critical to BRT Success?

11. Passenger Information

12. Other Info Technologies Also Have Income Streams On-Board Wi-Fi (L.A., Miami, various European cities) On-Board and Station Advertising with Next-Bus Info �Transit TV�

13. Hybrid will surpass CNG for most BRT Propulsion 28% of total will be hybrids One-third to be CNG (traditional drivetrain) Just a word about propulsion technology. We believe this slide is probably old now. We think that when WestStart-CALSTART does its next vehicle demand analysis that hybrid, typically diesel-electric but also gasoline-electric in Southern California, will become more popular than CNG as the alternative to diesel mechanical drivetrains in the U.S. For Canada and Mexico, it�s still diesel mechanical, followed by CNG in a conventional powertrain.Just a word about propulsion technology. We believe this slide is probably old now. We think that when WestStart-CALSTART does its next vehicle demand analysis that hybrid, typically diesel-electric but also gasoline-electric in Southern California, will become more popular than CNG as the alternative to diesel mechanical drivetrains in the U.S. For Canada and Mexico, it�s still diesel mechanical, followed by CNG in a conventional powertrain.

14. Docking/ Narrow Lane Guidancefor speed/consistency Precision Docking�Theory: Speed, consistency can be improved Consistent gap can speed boarding Same high station/curb height eliminates ramp deploy dwell time Enables rail-like ADA compliance?? In Practice: Not proven in USA Benefits, cost unclear Although no North American system has any guidance or precision docking currently deployed�Las Vegas turned off its optical system because of pavement striping issues and because the drivers were doing just as well getting close enough to the platform�other cities have used a variety of docking and guidance strategies for better boarding as well as to reduce lane width are thus save on infrastructure costs.Although no North American system has any guidance or precision docking currently deployed�Las Vegas turned off its optical system because of pavement striping issues and because the drivers were doing just as well getting close enough to the platform�other cities have used a variety of docking and guidance strategies for better boarding as well as to reduce lane width are thus save on infrastructure costs.

15. BRT Vehicle Demand Growth 20% to be 40-45 footers 450 per year, 66% for new services This Chart shows the cumulative projected market for BRT vehicles over the next 10 years. We believe cities will order at least 500 BRT buses per year to the market, though we are not sure that they are additional buses for expansion service or will be a redeployment of the existing fleet size. This chart is based on a Vehicle Demand Study (done by CALSTART in 2004) of 48 communities surveyed on their expected BRT bus deliveries from 2004 to 2013. As you can see from the blue area of the graph, the demand for articulated buses for BRT services is expected to increase substantially, with over 60 percent of the buses ordered for BRT service over the next 10 years (roughly 3,200 out of 5,200) expected to be articulated buses. 30 to 35 foot buses � 784 buses total (15% of total projected BRT bus deliveries over next 10 years) 40 to 45 foot buses �1,164 buses total (22% of total projected BRT bus deliveries over next 10 years) Articulated buses � 3,262 buses total (63% of total projected BRT bus deliveries over next 10 years)This Chart shows the cumulative projected market for BRT vehicles over the next 10 years. We believe cities will order at least 500 BRT buses per year to the market, though we are not sure that they are additional buses for expansion service or will be a redeployment of the existing fleet size. This chart is based on a Vehicle Demand Study (done by CALSTART in 2004) of 48 communities surveyed on their expected BRT bus deliveries from 2004 to 2013. As you can see from the blue area of the graph, the demand for articulated buses for BRT services is expected to increase substantially, with over 60 percent of the buses ordered for BRT service over the next 10 years (roughly 3,200 out of 5,200) expected to be articulated buses. 30 to 35 foot buses � 784 buses total (15% of total projected BRT bus deliveries over next 10 years) 40 to 45 foot buses �1,164 buses total (22% of total projected BRT bus deliveries over next 10 years) Articulated buses � 3,262 buses total (63% of total projected BRT bus deliveries over next 10 years)

16. Pace of Technology�s Change The 1990s: Multiple floor heights, lengths Several fuels (and aftertreatments) Multiple structures Advanced electronics (multiplexing, AVL, voice annunciators, AVM, etc.) The 2000s: Growing use of hybrids Real-time video surveillance Data logging and advanced diagnostics Wi-Fi BRT features

17. The Result: A �Build to Order� Market Each order custom Pilot bus Wiring scheme different Major components different (even allowed by SBPGs) Time to market now 18 months�or less Big reason why OEMs are financially fragile

18. Cost of New Technology and Mandates?

19. Small But Important Vehicle Issues to Look for In Authorization, Regulations Buy America enforcement Altoona testing waivers Local Preferences (e.g., In State Dealer Reqs. Axle weight loading exemptions Standards incentives/mandates Procurement reforms driven by DOD etc. Funding, Funding and More Funding

20. Conclusions Remember: BRT Is A System of Elements Most Important Vehicle-Related System Performance Impacts: Capacity Doors/Seat Layout Route Speed (Vehicle and TSP) Route Structure/Convenience Fleet Size = Frequency Vehicle Reliability Largest System Design Impacts Branding-Related Livery and Interiors Vehicle and Station Styling Information/Ease of Use So, the BRT trend continues to accelerate both globally and continentally for the simple reason that it is a truly sustainable way forward to changing travel patters in our cities, which we must do if we are to have any hope of reduce our energy use and averting drastic climate change. I have shown you a variety of technologies available but we must keep an eye on their cost.So, the BRT trend continues to accelerate both globally and continentally for the simple reason that it is a truly sustainable way forward to changing travel patters in our cities, which we must do if we are to have any hope of reduce our energy use and averting drastic climate change. I have shown you a variety of technologies available but we must keep an eye on their cost.

21. Questions?