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International Trends in Environmental Regulations for Vehicles

International Trends in Environmental Regulations for Vehicles Santiago, Chile May 13, 2008 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Chairman, Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation Major Global Trends Environmental Concerns Increasing Particles Global Warming

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International Trends in Environmental Regulations for Vehicles

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  1. International Trends in Environmental Regulations for Vehicles Santiago, Chile May 13, 2008 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Chairman, Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation

  2. Major Global Trends • Environmental Concerns Increasing • Particles • Global Warming • Cleaner and Cleaner Technologies Entering Marketplace • Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles • Passenger Cars • Motorcycles • Cleaner Fuels Increasingly Critical • Sulfur Levels Approaching Zero • Lead Almost Gone; MMT Increasing Concern

  3. Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-2002 Most Vehicles Are In Cities E:\Changhong CHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xls

  4. One Result: Serious Health Concerns • WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM • Numerous Studies Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc. • No Evidence of a Threshold • Ozone, NO2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health Concerns

  5. PM10 inMajor cities Source: Cohen et al, 2005

  6. Background • Energy Demand in the Transport Sector: Annual Average Growth Rate (%) by Region 2004 - 2030 6 In 2004, 94 % of transport energy based on fossil oil. The share will only slightly decrease to 93 % in 2030. 5 4 Growth (% p.a.) 3 2 1 0 World India China USA Japan Africa Brazil OECD Russia Developing Asia Middle East OECD Europe OECD Pacific Latin America European Union Transition Economies OECD North America Developing Countries Source: IEA WEO 2006

  7. Carbon Dioxide is Not The Whole Story!

  8. Transportation sector priorities 3 key interventions • Fuel-efficient, low Emitting cars • Low-carbon fuels • Reduced vehicle-miles traveled through congestion pricing, Bus Rapid Transit, etc.

  9. Technology Capable of Cleaning Vehicle Emissions Has Improved Dramatically in the Past 30-40 Years

  10. The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and Underfloor Applications • Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability • Integrated HC adsorption functions • Mounting materials with improved durability • High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates • Insulation schemes for heat management Maximum Emissions Performance Is Only Achieved With Near Zero Sulfur Fuel

  11. Diesel Particulate Filters • Reductions: • -80 to 95% PM • -80-100% HC, CO • -80%+ toxins Trapped PM Cell Plugs Exhaust (CO2, H2O)Out Exhaust(PM, CO, HC)Enter • Issues to balance: • sulfate formation • regeneration and back pressure • Fuel Economy Ceramic HoneycombWall

  12. How The Trap Functions

  13. Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with alveolar deposition

  14. from non grey.. Conventional Diesel G-DI Gasoline and LPG

  15. Current DPF Applications Millions of cars are equipped with DPF around world

  16. SCR Solution System Architecture Air Solenoid Air Tank Urea Sensor Dosing Unit Urea Tank J1939 (Public) ECM SCR Control SCR Connector Catalyst Output Temperature Catalyst Input Temperature Exhaust Gas Processor Engine

  17. NOx sensor (optional)NOx sensor Mixer SCR + ASC DOC Emissions control system for Euro VI Oxidation catalyst (DOC), catalyst-based particulate filter and urea-SCR with ammonia slip catalyst (ASC).

  18. California’s ZEV History ZEV Reg Implementation ZEV Regulation FC Buses on-road PZEVs created AT PZEVs Created CaFCP Started

  19. ZEV - Status • Goals: • Drive development of ZEVs • Supports bridging technologies like Hybrids • Maximizes air quality benefits with PZEVs • Status • PZEVs marketed by all automakers subject to the regulation, 425,000 PZEVs sold to date • Hybrids very successful in the marketplace, 70,000 AT PZEV hybrids sold to date • 100 Fuel cell vehicles being placed in California in real world demonstration fleets Honda Civic Hybrid AT PZEV

  20. Near-Zero Emission Vehicles Lifetime emissions (VOC+NOx) Partial Zero Emissions Vehicles (PZEVs) • Currently 20 models for sale, including 4 HEVs • 250,000 annual sales (14%) in 2005 • 1,000,000 sales by 2015 (55%)

  21. Near-Zero Emission Vehicles • BMW 325i • Chrysler Sebring • Ford Focus • Ford Fusion • Ford Escape HEV • Honda Accord • Honda Civic HEV • Honda insight HEV • Hyundai Elantra • Kia Spectra • Mazda 3 • Mazda 6 • Mitsubishi Galant • Nissan Altima • Nissan Sentra • Subaru Outback • Toyota Camry • Toyota Prius HEV • VW Jetta • Volvo S40

  22. Fleet Demonstrations • 100Fuel cell light duty vehicles to date • Up to 7Fuel cell buses • Testing, outreach, data collection, validation

  23. ZEV TechnologyReview - CARB

  24. Plug In Hybrids Are Emerging

  25. Electric bikes in China, P.R. • China Produced Approximately 15 Million Electric bikes in 2007 • This dramatic growth has been largely due to legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and motorcycles, introduced from 1996 onwards in several major Chinese cities Sources: Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006

  26. Which Countries Are Getting Clean Technologies? • Clean Fuels • Stringent Standards Including Advanced Technology Mandates • Strong Incentives • Economic • Other

  27. My Global Vision For 2015 • Every New Diesel Has PM Filter & Low NOx • Gasoline Vehicles Approaching ZERO Emissions • Hybrid Technologies (Including Plug In Hybrids) Are Mature, Widespread Technology • Small Battery Electric Vehicles (City) Vehicles Widely Used • Fuel Cell Vehicle Numbers Increasing

  28. What Is The Situation Today in Santiago • Good Fuel Quality < 50 PPM Sulfur But Not Taking Advantage of This To Introduce Diesel Filters Widely – Should Be Highest Priority • Much Cleaner Gasoline Vehicles Are Feasible, Especially With Low S in 2009 • Incentives For Hybrids Could Be Expanded

  29. A Short Term Plan For Santiago • Tighten Requirements Sufficiently To Require PM Filters on New Diesel Cars and Buses • Lower Diesel Sulfur to 10/15 PPM • Introduce Euro 5 or Tier 2 Bin 5 for All New Cars and Light Trucks • Introduce Euro 3 For Motorcycles • Implement ASM Based Centralized I/M For All Light Duty Vehicles

  30. Europe

  31. Europe Overview • 2007 Developments • Light Duty Euro 5 & 6 Adopted (Too Slow But # Added) • Truck & Bus Euro VI Proposed By Commission

  32. Euro 5+ and Euro 6 Will Include 6X1011 /km Particle Number Limit

  33. Comparison of NOx and PM regulations for HD diesel vehicle among Japan, USA and Europe

  34. Reconciling the Diesel Engine With the Environment:A Comprehensive Approach • Common Aspects-- • Systems approach– fuel change enables clean technologies • Large environmental benefits • Responsive to needs of States to meet air quality goals • Collaborative process Highway Tier 2 Light-duty (1999) 2007/2010 Heavy-duty (2001) Nonroad Locomotive/Marine Tier 4 diesel (2004)

  35. Highway + Nonroad Diesel Fuel Sulfur Specs* HWY 10/1993 06/2006 01/2010 NR All Highway 15 ppm 6/2007 6/2010 6/2014 6/2012 >80% 15 ppm Highway Diesel 500ppm All Diesel ~3400 ppm NR 15 ppm <20% 500 ppm NR, L&M Diesel 500 ppm L&M 500 ppm L&M 15ppm All Off-Highway Diesel ~3400 ppm Small & Credit 500 ppm Small & Credit ~3400 Small 15 ppm HHF ~3400ppm HHF ~3400ppm * This figure is intended to illustrate the timeline for the final highway and nonroad diesel fuel sulfur control programs. It is not drawn to exact scale. Refer to 40 CFR Part 80 for specific program dates.

  36. Health Benefits Are Tremendous! premature deaths chronic bronchitis hospital admissions over 3 million lost workdays 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 number prevented annually (in 2030)

  37. The Benefits Far Outweigh The Costs cost Total Cost: $11 billion Total Benefits: $175 billion Tier 2 Light-duty Highway benefit 2007 Heavy-duty Highway Tier 4 Nonroad 0 20 40 60 80 100 40,000 $ Billion Annually in 2030

  38. “10%” Mandate 42% by volume 30 % PZEV ~1% 11% 2 % ZEV AT PZEV Current ZEV Program ZEV Program (2012 – 2014)

  39. ZEV Program

  40. ZEV TechnologyReview - CARB

  41. China

  42. Status of Air Quality PM10 levels in Major Chinese Cities (1999 – 2005) NAAQS Class II PM10 limit = 100µg/m3

  43. China’s GDP

  44. Urbanization Rate in China

  45. New Vehicle Sales Are Booming No. 2 largest auto market

  46. Crude oil prod’n & consum’n > 40% oil import dependence

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