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Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling By Jay M. Ver Hoef National Marine Mammal Lab 7600 Sand Point Way, NE Seattle, WA 98115 jay.verhoef@noaa.gov Model Averaging Change of Support Model Selection Which one would AIC choose? How Do We Use Probability?

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Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

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  1. Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling By Jay M. Ver Hoef National Marine Mammal Lab 7600 Sand Point Way, NE Seattle, WA 98115 jay.verhoef@noaa.gov

  2. Model Averaging

  3. Change of Support

  4. Model Selection Which one would AIC choose?

  5. How Do We Use Probability?

  6. Are Models Correct? y x “All models are wrong. We make tentative assumptions about the real world which we know are false but which we believe may be useful.”- George Box 1976

  7. Conclusions • Do not quench your inspiration and your imagination; do not become the slave of your model. Vincent van Gogh • A good model can advance fashion by ten years. Yves Saint Laurent • When I model I pretty much go blank. You can't think too much or it doesn't work. • Paulina Porizkova • A theory has only the alternative of being right or wrong. A model has a third possibility: it may be right, but irrelevant. • Manfred Eigen

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