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Some Thoughts on Adaptation in Light of Uncertainty

Some Thoughts on Adaptation in Light of Uncertainty. Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc. Boulder CO Jsmith@stratusconsulting.com July 30, 2014. What is Certain. The climate IS changing. At best we know the direction of change in some key variables Magnitudes are uncertain.

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Some Thoughts on Adaptation in Light of Uncertainty

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  1. Some Thoughts on Adaptation in Light of Uncertainty Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc. Boulder CO Jsmith@stratusconsulting.com July 30, 2014

  2. What is Certain • The climate IS changing • At best we know the direction of change in some key variables • Magnitudes are uncertain

  3. Would be Best if We Could React to Climate Change • Design systems to be responsive to changes in the environment • Flexibility • Adaptive Management • That leave us exposed to events that cause • Catastrophic impacts • Irreversible impacts • Missed opportunities

  4. One of the Challenges of Proactive Adaptation • Waiting for the perfect forecast

  5. One of the Challenges of Adaptation • Waiting for the perfect forecast • I’ve been doing this for 25 years and have not seen the projections narrow

  6. We Get Wrapped Up in This Notion of Optimization • Optimization is very difficult considering uncertainties about climate and future socio-economic conditions • We should think about reducing vulnerability to climate at a reasonable price • Take the steps that are prudent and affordable

  7. In Many Cases We Make This Harder Than it Ought to be

  8. In Many Cases We Make This Harder Than it Ought to be But many adaptation decisions are discrete – and that makes them easier to implement

  9. Culverts I

  10. Culverts II

  11. Left Hand Canyon

  12. Considerations • Benefits • Costs • Feasibility

  13. Adaptation: You Do What You Can • Plan for more intense heat waves • Plan for sea level rise • Plan for bigger floods • Plan for more intense droughts • Make the affordable and prudent investments that buy additional protection or resilience

  14. Failure IS an Option

  15. Questions? jsmith@stratusconsulting.com

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