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Dr. Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang Professor of Strategic Studies & Director of American Studies Tamkang University Sen

International Security Estimate In the 21 st Century. Dr. Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang Professor of Strategic Studies & Director of American Studies Tamkang University Senior Associate Center for Strategic & International Studies. APEC 2007 Workshop Foreign Service Institute

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Dr. Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang Professor of Strategic Studies & Director of American Studies Tamkang University Sen

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  1. International Security Estimate In the 21st Century Dr. Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang Professor of Strategic Studies & Director of American Studies Tamkang University Senior Associate Center for Strategic & International Studies APEC 2007 Workshop Foreign Service Institute Taipei, March 14, 2007 ©ACH 2007. The views in the presentation should not be interpreted as those of the ROC government.

  2. The views expressed in this presentation should not be interpreted as those of the ROC Government or any political party in Taiwan Off the Record

  3. Major Events 2007 • 228 Incident – 60th anniversary • Anti-Rightist Campaign – 50th anniversary • Hong Kong turnover – 10th anniversary • Asian Financial Meltdown – 10th anniversary • PLA – 80th birthday • Taiwan opened to China – 20th anniversary • ROC Constitution – 60th anniversary • 10th NPC / CPPCC – 5th Session (March) • Taiwan Constitutional reengineering (Spring – ) • DPP/KMT LY/Presidential nomination (Spring) • CCP 17th Congress (Fall) • Last APEC for CSB (November) • Taiwan LY elections (December) • Referenda: KMT Assets / Constitution (December)

  4. Prevention Preventive Diplomacy Strategic Ambiguity Incentives Multilateralism Peace-making Traditional Treaty Allies Overwhelming Force Preemption Preemptive Defense Strategic Clarity Coercion Unilateralism Regime Change Coalition of the Willing Defense Transformation Competing Paradigms of International Security

  5. Trends in Globalization • Political scenarios • Universal values vs. Multipolar orders vs. New rules of game • Good-bye Pax Americana / EU expansion / Rise of China • Economic scenarios • Disconnected regions vs. Giant multinationals • US dollar vs. Euro vs. Asian dollar • Technology scenarios • Geographical irrelevance / Seamless & Instant information • Cell phone as PDA/PC/SNG/Global Conference kit • Military scenarios • Military operations other than war (MOOTW) • Elephants vs. rats & the in-betweens

  6. The Decline of American Superpower ? 1987 1996 2004

  7. Axis of Evil Shanghai Cooperation Organization First Island Chain String of Pearls Washington Post April 12, 2005 P. A1 Strategic Posture In Asia-Pacific 2005

  8. The Rise of ChinaStatus Quo Tilted in the Taiwan Strait ?

  9. The Barbarian at the Gate China's Massive Invasion of Washington Washingtonian, January 2007, pp. 66-71, 135-137.

  10. Important to US in 5 yrs China Russia Iran Japan UK India Pakistan EU Saudi A France The Uncertain World America FacesSurvey by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Likely Ally in 5 yrs • China • UK • Japan • Russia • India • EU • Pakistan • Australia • Saudi A • France Likely Adversary in 5 yrs • China • Iran • Russia • N Korea • Pakistan • Saudi A • Iraq • Sudan • India • Syria Important to US in 20 yrs • China • Russia • India • Japan • Pakistan • Saudi A • Iran • EU • Brazil • UK Likely Ally in 20 yrs • China • India • Russia • Japan • UK • EU • Brazil • Canada • France • Germany Likely Adversary in 20 yrs • China • Russia • Pakistan • Saudi A • Iran • India • Japan • EU • Indonesia • N Korea David Rothkopf, Running the World: The Inside Story of the National Security Council and the Architects of American Power, New York, NY: Public Affairs, 2004, pp. 448-456.

  11. China’s “Domestic-External Linkage” Regional Economic Strategy Shanghai Cooperation Organization Northeast Revitalization Northeast Asia Free Trade Area Big West Development Bohai Rim Econ Circle Yangtze Delta TWN Strait West Bank Taiwan Economy Regional Econ Groupings Zhujiang Delta Domestic Econ Projects ASEAN Plus One HK/Macau CEPA Grand Mekong Sub-region © ACH

  12. Shanghai Cooperation Organization Red: states in the SCO Black: states China does not want in SCO Yellow: states China is willing to consider for membership in SCO By Alex Liebman, Harvard University

  13. The Asean Plus Three/East Asia Summit Red: states in the APT Black: states China does not want in EAS (Russia currently has observer status; New Zealand not pictured). By Alex Liebman, Harvard University

  14. The Rise of China Deserves a Second Thought A Sick Panda May Be More Dangerous Than a Muscular Dragon

  15. Owner of Democracy 民主的擁有者 Stakeholder in Security 安全的關係人 Not Only But Also Common Interests 共同的利益 Shared Values 共享的價值

  16. The all mighty God has granted the world everyday a sunny day. If you don’t see the sun today, your strategic altitude is not high enough.

  17. 史記卷八高祖本紀第八 高祖曰： 夫運籌策帷帳之中，決勝於千里之外，吾不如子房。 鎮國家，撫百姓，給餽饟，不絕糧道，吾不如蕭何。 連百萬之軍，戰必勝，攻必取， 吾不如韓信。 此三者，皆人傑也，吾能用之， 此吾所以取天下也。 Peace through Strength 報告完畢 敬祈指教 ahuang csis.org

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