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Atlanta Regional Commission For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional

Gazing The Crystal Ball : Exploring ARC Forecasts And Future Race and Age Trends. Atlanta Regional Commission For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.org. October 2019. This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY.

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Atlanta Regional Commission For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional

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  1. Gazing The Crystal Ball: Exploring ARC Forecasts And Future Race and Age Trends Atlanta Regional Commission For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.org October 2019 This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY

  2. The Highlights • ARC forecasts the region to add around 2.9 million new residents between 2015 and 2050, which will bring the 21-county area’s total population to 8.6 million by 2050. • The region’s growing diversity will continue. The share of people of color will grow significantly, while the share of White population will decline from around 47 percent today to 31 percent by 2050. • ARC forecasts that there will be more than a million resident aged 75 and older by 2050, making this age cohort the fastest growing in the region. • Gwinnett will surpass Fulton as the region’s most populous county by 2050.

  3. 2015 – 2050 Population and Employment Forecast

  4. Population Growth Driven by People of Color

  5. Shares of White Population Decrease

  6. We’re Getting Older…

  7. … But All Age Cohorts are Adding Population

  8. County Level Forecasts

  9. 2015 – 2050 Population Forecasts by County

  10. Race/Ethnicity Trends: Black Populations (Total Change) Black populations in Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry counties are projected to grow faster than those in all other counties between now and 2050. Within the next 30 years, Cobb is projected to add about 166,000 Black residents and Gwinnett is slated to add another 174,000, while Henry is forecast add another 108,000 Black residents.

  11. Race/Ethnicity Trends: Hispanic Populations (Total Change)

  12. Race/Ethnicity Trends: “Other” Populations (Total Change) The region’s population that is identified as Other (two or more races, Asian, Native American, Alaskan/Pacific Islander) in our forecasting model is projected to grow fastest in Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett. In Gwinnett county, the population that identifies as “Other” is projected to more than triple within the next 30 years, growing from 129,000 to over 392,000.

  13. Race/Ethnicity Trends: White Populations (Total Change) Roughly half of the region’s counties will experience a decline in overall White population between 2015 and 2050, which is a continuation of trend over the past decade, or so.

  14. Change in Share of Race/Ethnicity, 2015-2050

  15. Age Trends: Ages 0-22 (Total Change) Note: This age cohort can be considered, for this research, as “Generation Z” today.

  16. Age Trends: Ages 23-38 (Total Change) Note: This age cohort can be considered, for this research, as “Millennials” today.

  17. Age Trends: Ages 39-54 (Total Change) Note: This age cohort can be considered, for this research, as “Generation X” today

  18. Age Trends: Ages 55-74 (Total Change)

  19. Age Trends: Ages 75+ (Total Change)

  20. Change in Share of Age Cohorts

  21. Metro Atlanta Employment by Sector

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