1 / 19

Development of the Hurricane WRF prototype System at EMC Robert E. Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NOAA/SAIC With HWRF team HWRF tutoria

Development of the Hurricane WRF prototype System at EMC Robert E. Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NOAA/SAIC With HWRF team HWRF tutorial NCEP October 26-27, 2004 OUTLINE What is a Hurricane Forecast system?? Design of the prototype system for HWRF Important forecast files and information

Anita
Download Presentation

Development of the Hurricane WRF prototype System at EMC Robert E. Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NOAA/SAIC With HWRF team HWRF tutoria

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Development of the Hurricane WRF prototype System at EMC Robert E. Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NOAA/SAIC With HWRF team HWRF tutorial NCEP October 26-27, 2004

  2. OUTLINE • What is a Hurricane Forecast system?? • Design of the prototype system for HWRF • Important forecast files and information • 2004 preliminary HWRF forecasts • Future plans

  3. Hurricane Forecast System Storm information NHC storm message Position domain model initial & boundary conditions Wrf si Wrf real Wrf model Model integration Model hurricane output products Synoptic fields for many variables Create file for track, intensity, etc

  4. #!/bin/ksh YYMMDDHH=`date '+%y%m%d%H'` YYMMDDTD=`date '+%y%m%d'` YYTD=`date '+%y'` MMTD=`date '+%m'` DDTD=`date '+%d'` TOMORROW=`expr $YYMMDDTD + 1` TODAY=$YYMMDDTD cd /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18 if [ "$#" -eq 0 ] then echo running from operational ncep/nhc request message file echo make sure operational host model forecast files are available cp -p /com/hur/prod/inpdata/message1 storm1 elif [ "$#" -eq 2 ] then echo running from $user supplied nhc request message file cp /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/$1.$2.message1 storm1 elif [ "$#" -eq 1 ] then echo requires 2 arguments: storm yymmddhh; exit elif [ "$#" -gt 2 ] then echo requires 2 arguments: storm yymmddhh; exit fi cat storm1 # set HWRF variables needed for prototype runs STORM=`cat storm1 | cut -c10-19` STORMID=`cat storm1 | cut -c6-8` CYC=`cat storm1 | cut -c27-28` YY=`cat storm1 | cut -c20-21` MM=`cat storm1 | cut -c22-23` DD=`cat storm1 | cut -c24-25` YYMMDD=`cat storm1 | cut -c20-25` TOMORROWF=`expr $YYMMDD + 0` TODAYF=$YYMMDD LATT=`cat storm1 | cut -c32-34` LONT=`cat storm1 | cut -c37-40` LATF=`cat storm1 | cut -c117-120` LONF=`cat storm1 | cut -c123-126` echo 'storm varibles for HWRF' echo $STORM $STORMID $YY $MM $DD $CYC $LATT $LONT $LATF $LONF # center domain 10deg west of storm center if no 72hr fcst if [ $LONF -lt 0 ] then echo 'missing longitude forecast' LONF=`expr $LONT + 200` fi CENT=`expr $LONT + $LONF` CENTAVG=`expr $CENT / 2` echo $LONT $LONF $CENT $CENTAVG CENLO=`expr -$CENTAVG / 10` echo 'center longitude of grid ' $CENLO if [ "$#" -eq 0 ] then # reset longitude if storm1 mesage is old if [ $TODAYF -ne $TODAY ] then echo storm card different day echo $TODAYF 'is forecast day '$TODAY 'is today' YY=$YYTD MM=$MMTD DD=$DDTD STORM='ATL60' CENLO=-60 fi if [ $CYC -ne '00' ] then echo storm card not 00UTC CYC='00' STORM='ATL60' CENLO=-60 fi fi CENLA=22.5 CENLA=25 echo 'domain center' $CENLA $CENLO MODIN=AVN # put environmenta variables into super script... /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/starthwrfenv.sh

  5. # put environmenta variables into super script... cat << eor > superenv.scr # @ step_name = wrfsi # @ output = /ptmp/wx20tr/supersi.out # @ error = /ptmp/wx20tr/supersi.err # @ notification = never ## ## DOMAIN YR MO D C LAT LON MODEL ## = = = = = = = = # @ arguments = $STORM 20$YY $MM $DD $CYC $CENLA $CENLO $MODIN ## # @ wall_clock_limit = 01:30:00 # @ job_type = serial # @ node_usage=not_shared # @ class = dev # @ executable = /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/NMMSI/PARX18/wrfsi.scr # @ queue # @ dependency = (wrfsi == 0) # @ step_name = real # @ output = /ptmp/wx20tr/superreal.out # @ error = /ptmp/wx20tr/superreal.err # @ notification = never # @ wall_clock_limit = 01:00:00 # @ job_type = parallel # @ total_tasks = 1 # @ node_usage=not_shared # @ blocking=unlimited # @ arguments = $STORM 20$YY $MM $DD $CYC # @ class = dev # @ network.MPI = csss,shared,us # @ executable = /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/real_nmm.scr # @ queue # @ dependency = (real == 0) # @ step_name = wrfmodel # @ output = /ptmp/wx20tr/supernmm.out # @ error = /ptmp/wx20tr/supernmm.err # @ notification = never # @ wall_clock_limit = 03:00:00 # @ job_type = parallel # @ total_tasks = 61 # @ node_usage=shared # @ blocking=unlimited # @ arguments = $STORM 20$YY $MM $DD $CYC # @ class = dev # @ network.MPI = csss,shared,us # @ executable = /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/wrf_nmm.scr # @ queue # @ dependency = (wrfmodel == 0) # @ step_name = wrfpost # @ output = /ptmp/wx20tr/superpost.out # @ error = /ptmp/wx20tr/superpost.err # @ notification = never # @ wall_clock_limit = 00:60:00 # @ job_type = parallel # @ total_tasks = 1 # @ node_usage=not_shared # @ blocking=unlimited # @ class = dev # @ network.MPI = csss,shared,us # @ arguments = $STORM 20$YY $MM $DD $CYC $CENLA $CENLO # @ executable = /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/WRFpost.scr # @ queue eor # cat superenv.scr llsubmit superenv.scr /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/superenv.scr wrfsi wrfmodel wrfreal wrfpost

  6. Storm information • Independent of objective analysis • Request by NHC to NCEP to run model • Enables bogussing and grid positioning • Current position, wind distribution etc. • File name coined ‘vitals or storm message’ • e.g. /com/hur/prod/inpdata/message1 NHC 05E DARBY 040729 1200 173N 1274W 295 062 0960 1008 0278 51 028 0241 0241 0111 0167 D 0148 0111 0074 0130 72 195N 1400W

  7. HWRF features • Uses WRF NMM dynamic core • Initial condition options • Current or historical cases • GFS or GFDL initial conditions • Physics options • Eta model physics • Transitioning to GFDL(GFS) physics

  8. GFS…………..GFDL

  9. Additional HWRF features • Requires grib input of initial conditions • Uses wrf binary and netcdf files • Rotated-E NMM grid … a bit awkward • WRF SI…a slow, big, generalized interpolator • Netcdf WRF output on native model grid • HWRF post • Uses EMC post utilities to interpolate to ‘A’ grid on pressure levels • Creates synoptic fields at ~ model resolution • EMC post output grids in grib format • Creates ‘atcf_unix’ file to track storm location, intensity, and extent • Attempt to use grads-based analysis tools • More output products to be developed

  10. #!/bin/ksh ##@ output = out.post_wrf #@ error = err.post_wrf #@ job_type = parallel ##@ class = dev #@ class = 1 #@ total_tasks = 1 #@ blocking = unlimited ##@ node = 1 #@ wall_clock_limit = 00:60:00 #@ preferences = Feature == "dev" #@ network.MPI = csss,shared,us #@ queue set -x export MP_SHARED_MEMORY=yes export MP_LABELIO=yes export tmmark=tm00 export DOMAIN=${1} export YEAR=${2} export MONTH=${3} export DATE=${4} export CYCLE=${5} export CENLA=${6} export CENLO=${7} STORM=$DOMAIN MM=$MONTH DD=$DATE CYC=$CYCLE COMPATH=/ptmp/$user/$STORM.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC} export WRFROOT=wrfout_d01_ cd $TMPDIR/$user/ export OUTDIR=$COMPATH export YYYYMMDDHH=${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC} for hr in 00 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48\ 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 do # create wrf output file name MF=`/nwprod/util/exec/ndate $hr $YYYYMMDDHH | cut -c5-6` DF=`/nwprod/util/exec/ndate $hr $YYYYMMDDHH | cut -c7-8` HF=`/nwprod/util/exec/ndate $hr $YYYYMMDDHH | cut -c9-10` hour=${DF}T${HF} echo $DF $MF $CYC $COMPATH >> $COMPATH/wrfposttest.out export tmmark=$hour cat > itag <<EOF $OUTDIR/${WRFROOT}${YEAR}-$MF-$hour:00:00 netcdf $YEAR-$MF-$hour:00:00 NMM EOF # #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # Run etapost. rm fort.* ln -sf /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/wrf_cntrl.parmtrack fort.14 ln -sf /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/griddef.out fort.110 poe /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/wrfpost.x_ncare < itag >> $OUTDIR/outpost_wrf #---------------------------------------------------------------------- # End of output job fhour=`ls WRFPRS??.???? | cut -c7-8` echo $fhour mv WRFPRS??.???? $OUTDIR/WRFPRS${fhour}.grib done # now extract needed grib varibles and interpolate them onto lat-lon grid /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/interp_wrfine.sh # run tracker /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/runtrak.sh # now interpolate synoptic hourly data to lat-lon grib files... /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/interp_wrfhrly.sh # ftp important data to lnx55 hwrf site... ftp -v lnx55 <<eor passive binary prompt lcd $OUTDIR mkdir /work/hwrf/$STORM.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC} cd /work/hwrf/$STORM.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC} mput trak.hwrf* mput wrf.latlon.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC}* bye eor ## end of ftp # save wrf files to archive... htar -cvf /hpssuser/g01/wx20tr/$STORM.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC} $OUTDIR/wrf.latlon.* $OUTDIR/wrfout* $OUTDIR/wrfbdy_d01 $OUTDIR/wrfinput_d01 $OUTDIR/trak.hwrf* exit /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/WRFpost.scr create tracker file run tracker create synoptic data archive data

  11. Critical atcf_unix file communicates storm information model • /tpcprd/atcf_unix/aal092004.dat • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 0, 182N, 796W, 158, 903 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 6, 186N, 804W, 141, 909 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 12, 190N, 813W, 130, 922 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 18, 194N, 822W, 127, 924 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 24, 200N, 828W, 129, 921 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 30, 207N, 835W, 131, 923 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 36, 216N, 842W, 130, 921 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 42, 224N, 848W, 130, 924 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 000, 183N, 797W, 112, 960, XX, 34, NEQ, 0190, 0119, 0089, 0118 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 000, 183N, 797W, 112, 960, XX, 50, NEQ, 0074, 0071, 0064, 0066 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 000, 183N, 797W, 112, 960, XX, 64, NEQ, 0056, 0055, 0048, 0050 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 012, 191N, 814W, 117, 961, XX, 34, NEQ, 0316, 0315, 0194, 0311 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 012, 191N, 814W, 117, 961, XX, 50, NEQ, 0128, 0104, 0109, 0137 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 0, 181N, 798W, 0 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 12, 187N, 809W, 0 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 24, 197N, 821W, 0 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 36, 212N, 831W, 0 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 48, 226N, 840W, 0 • AL, 09, 2004091200, 01, CARQ, 0, 182N, 796W, 145, 910, XX, 34, NEQ, 150, 100, 100, 150, 1007, 240, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 7, IVAN , D, • AL, 09, 2004091200, 01, CARQ, 0, 182N, 796W, 145, 910, XX, 50, NEQ, 90, 75, 60, 90, 1007, 240, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 7, IVAN , D, • AL, 09, 2004091200, 01, CARQ, 0, 182N, 796W, 145, 910, XX, 64, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 60, 1007, 240, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 7, IVA , D, • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, SHIP, 12, 192N, 812W, 146, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, SHIP, 24, 206N, 824W, 139, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, SHIP, 36, 222N, 834W, 131, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, SHIP, 48, 238N, 842W, 131, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, structure position intensity

  12. Tracker software to create storm temporal forecast information • May be part of model run or done in post in/out of house • ‘tracker’ becoming a misnomer since intensity and storm structure also analyzed • Usually requires temporal data near surface, 850mb and 500mb • Usually multi-variable analysis…vorticity, U, V, T, etc. • EMC uses scheme by Tim Marchok (GFDL)

  13. 2004 preliminary HWRF forecasts • Run at least one storm per day (00utc) • >120 uniform resolution cases • ~20km resolution with 42 GFDL levels • System found to be quite robust with few if any non-user failures • Started with eta-physics, GFS initial condition • A work in progress !!

  14. Preliminary HWRF results using grads-based utilities

  15. HWRF intensity forecasts(no easy fix!!!)

  16. Additional products needed • Requires wrf output at shorter time interval • Puts strains on distributed software design • New products needed??

  17. GFDL sfc wind & rainfall swaths

  18. Summary & Plans • An active start for HWRF ! • Migrate to improved initial condition • Migrate to GFDL-type physics + microphysics • Begin forecast verification & analysis • Compare with GFDL and other models • Initiate moveable, nested HWRF

More Related