Phenology and Species Distributions

1. A QUEST & CLASSIC workshop, Exeter, 28.– 29.11.2005 Phenology and Species Distributions Isabelle Chuine1, Xavier Morin1 and Nicolas Viovy2 Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS Montpellier France, www.cefe.cnrs.fr Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS, Saclay

2. PHENOFITA process-basedmodel • Principle Based on the concept of fitness, probability of an individual to leave viable and fertile offspring Based on the fact that adaptation of plants to the abiotic environment require synchronization of the developmental cycle to the seasonal variations of climate • Input daily climatic data over several decades (T°C, precipitation, …) • Output probability of presence = potential distribution (biotic interactions not taken into account)

3. Probability of presence Survival Reproductive success fruitmaturation probability Survival to low temperature Survival to drought Frost damage on flowers Frost damage on leaves Heat sum available since flowering Frost hardiness Phenological Models Fitted parameters flowering leaf colouring Leaf unfolding maturation Phenological observations PHENOFIT Chuine & Beaubien 2001, Morin & Chuine 2005)

4. What you need to know to run Phenofit • phenology: budburst, flowering, fruit maturation, leaf coloring • frost hardiness: minimum temperature sustained during active growth and dormancy • drought tolerance

5. Process based models implemented in PHENOFIT • Phenological models for budburst, flowering, fruit maturation (leaf coloration date is so far obtained by regression with latitude) (Chuine 2000, Chuine & Beaubien 2001) • Frost damage model (Leinonen 1996)

6. elevation (m) Pinus monticola Model performance

7. FRUIT MATURATION SUCESS SURVIVAL FROST DAMAGE high low high high low low What does limit western white pine distribution?

8. Model performance Pinus monticola Pinus monticola Pinus strobus

9. Pinus banksiana Pinus contorta Pinus contorta Model performance

10. Genetic differentiation Pinus contorta Pinus contorta Not taken into account Taken into account

11. Acer saccharum Acer saccharum Acer saccharum Acer saccharum Acer saccharum Model performance Acer circinatum Acer grandidentatum Acer macrophyllum Acer glabrum

12. Models performance Populus tremuloides

13. Lodgepole pine – Pinus contorta B2 HadCM3 2100 +2.2°C A2 HadCM3 2100 +5.0°C PHENOFIT extinction colonisation fitness fitness colonisable

14. PHENOFIT extinction colonisation fitness fitness colonisable Sugar maple - Acer saccharum B2 HadCM3 2100 +2.2°C A2 HadCM3 2100 +5.6°C

15. 1 3 5 10 20 30 50 Presence Value Comparison with other modelsQuaking aspen Niche-based model Iverson & Prasad 1998 Process-based model PHENOFIT Present GISS GCM x2 CO2 HadCM3 +2.2°C -20 -15 -5 -1 1 5 20 ext. -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 col. Change in P. V.