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Evidence of phenology shifts

Evidence of phenology shifts. Record date of: First leaf First bloom Full leaf Full bloom End of bloom. Cloned lilac network. Evidence of phenology shifts in Mass. Recorded temperature in Milton, MA. Miller-Rushing et al., 2006. Evidence of phenology shifts in Mass.

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Evidence of phenology shifts

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  1. Evidence of phenology shifts • Record date of: • First leaf • First bloom • Full leaf • Full bloom • End of bloom Cloned lilac network

  2. Evidence of phenology shifts in Mass Recorded temperature in Milton, MA Miller-Rushing et al., 2006

  3. Evidence of phenology shifts in Mass Plant species phenology advanced by about 4 days per ˚C temperature rise Miller-Rushing et al., 2006

  4. Some species respond more than others Spring Flowering Summer Flowering

  5. Phenology and frost damage Lower Frost Risk High Frost Risk Inouye, 2008

  6. Phenology and species interactions Shifting timing of species development could change interactions from predation to competition (or vice versa) Yang & Rudolf, 2010

  7. Phenology and species interactions If birds and insects respond to different phenological cues (example: sunlight vs. temperature) then hatchlings might starve Parus major

  8. Phenology and species interactions Pollinators may not shift at the same rate as flowering plants

  9. Effect of longer growing season Two generations of mountain bark beetle Extensive tree kills in the Rocky Mountains

  10. Direct mortality risk from climate change

  11. Extreme Drought Stress: Tree Die-off Yellow = observed pinyon pine mortality Breshears et al., 2005

  12. Physiological response of fish to hot water Hot water can kill fish because they can’t breathe enough oxygen Portner & Knust, 2007

  13. Atlantic salmon mortality increases with temperature 100 80 60 Mortality Rate (percent) 40 20 0 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Water Temperature (oC) Thorstad et al. 2003. Fisheries Research.

  14. Carbonate Life Forms in the Ocean

  15. Chemistry of Ocean Acidification

  16. Ocean Acidification and Corals Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007

  17. Climate Change and Coral Reefs Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007

  18. Climate Change and Coral Reefs Coral dominated Algae dominated Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007

  19. Coral Bleaching Zooxanthellae have narrow thermal tolerance

  20. Coral Bleaching

  21. Summary • Concerns with distribution shifts? • Local loss of species (especially where barriers to movement) • Loss of abundance of specific species (especially those with narrower climatic tolerance and those with phenology responses to day length) • Concerns with phenology shifts? • Mismatches (predator/prey; pollinator/flower) • Greatest threats from direct impacts? • Fish, invertebrates (physiological tolerance limits) • Coral reefs (ocean acidification)

  22. USFWS/NMFS are proposing to allow assisted migration as a conservation strategy under the Endangered Species Act • Should we undertake assisted migration of threatened & endangered species? (always, never, sometimes? If sometimes, what criteria?) • Should we undertake assisted migration of associated species (“habitat”) of T&E species? (always, never, sometimes? If sometimes, what criteria?) • Should we undertake “transformative” restoration of degraded lands to assist migration of T&E species (and their habitat)? (always, never, sometimes? If sometimes, what criteria?)

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