For you/me: Special kind of flying, pilots; Where are the traps?

1. Contest Safety Why contest safety? • For you/me: • Special kind of flying, pilots; Where are the traps? • For all of us: • We can do something to reduce the accident rate. • Attract more pilots to contests. • Rules committee listens to what pilots want! • Preview: • What are the dangers of contest soaring (NTSB)? • What are patterns, scenarios? • How can we avoid them? Safety psychology. • Can rules/procedures changes reduce the accident rate?

2. How many pilots think about crashes “Only a Bozo would do that.” “Can’t we rely on pilot judgment?” “Oh, x was a terrible pilot” “Experienced pilots wouldn’t do that.” “I’ve been flying 30 years, and I’ve never had a problem with that” Reichmann. Holighaus. Gerbaud. Bowman. Experience, great skill do not make you immune Cannot rely on personal experience to spot dangers

3. NTSB + JC serious crashes at contests 1983-2001 Midair Outland, Terrain Finish, Landing Assembly/ inflight Take off Total Pilot Injury Fatality 3 5 2 1 0 11 Serious 0 8 6 1 0 15 No or minor injury Destroyed 3 3 1 1 0 8 Substantial 4 12 1 2 2 19 Minor 4 4 Total 14 29 11 5 2 60 2001 SRA Pilot poll* 72% 11% 8% 5% *"Please indicate your number one safety concern for this contest season."

4. Contest Accident Summary 1. Overall level (understated!) 1 fatality / 2 years, 1 serious injury / year, many gliders totaled. About 500 pilots on seeding list You/I face a serious risk. Willing to face another 20 years like this? 2. Categories Pilot concern: Midair (“the other guy” + near miss experience). Fact: Outlandings remain #1. Surprise: Crashes at and near home airport! Look at 1) Close-in/airport crash, 2) Outlandings, 3) Midairs.

5. 1986 Uvalde ASW20 Serious Stall/spin. 50 foot 85 kt finish 1. Crashes after finish at home airport 1986 Uvalde LS6 Substantial Relight, lands short, traffic 1990 Cal. City Nimbus 2 Fatal Slow finish, stall-spin 1991 Hinckley Kestrel 19 Serious Collision on final. 1 Above/behind 1991 Hinckley Pegasus Serious Despite radio contact 1994 Littlefield 1-26 Serious Stall spin after low slow finish 1995 Newcastle Discus Total Lands short. High wind, rotor 2000 Sugarbush V2CM Serious Stall spin base to final after finish 2001 Montague Nimbus 3 Injury Cartwheel, landing in strong x wind 2001 Uvalde SZD 55 Fatal Stall spin after low finish (rest day) 2001 Wurtsburo Discus CS Fatal Stall spin after low finish (not at contest) 2. Crashes near home airport

6. Why is stall/spin such a problem? (reminder) 1. No close calls to warn you, very hard to survive 2. It’s not the spin, it’s the setup. Spin at the end of a “attention overload” sequence.

7. Surprise: no turn on point Distractions – traffic, checklist (?!) gear, spoilers.. Too much rudder Pull back to expected altitude X Nose falls, Pull back Eyes see groundspeed A little low/slow? Low finish scenario Attention overload. Habits fool you down low Need high proficiency. Note gear up landings! Wind

8. Sees wires, downwind illusion = spin 300’. This is nuts, I’d better not I guess the thermal petered out 350’ = Mc0+50’ Can I make it? Beep Beep. Turn here! Critical point for into-wind landing Boop boop Oh $%&@, The thermal’s up wind Beep beep..could this be a thermal? 350’ = Mc0+50’. Field or go for it? 400 points! All those great Soaring stories! 2 mile out crash scenario Airport 2 miles Wind 18 G 26 X

9. Mc3+300’ Mc3 = 80kts dry, 90 kts wet Critical zone Decisions: 300’! Mc0=53 kts Low slow finish Last minute landing Coffin corner on final glide Where would you thermal or land? 2000 1500 1000 500 0 10 5 0

10. What can you do to avoid end of flight crash? • Don’t do low final glides until you know the fields! • Fences, wires, hills, ditches, approaches, …draw map? • Safety psychology: • You won’t have time to think. • You will be very tempted. • Early in the sequence – “this is how pilots kill themselves” • Focus conscious attention on flight mechanics, how subconscious is deceiving you. • Plan, visualize high stress situations • Decide now to give up and land early. • Decide now to do a rolling finish early. • Decide now not to do low final glides/finishes. • Even if others fly by!

11. What can rules do to make the end of the flight safer? • Approach: • Can a rules change reduce accidents? • Will it make the contest less fair or meaningful? • Will it reduce fun too much? • Here: #1 only. • Up to you: find the balance. • Right balance is different for sports regionals / 15 M worlds. • Will present many ideas, not proposals. • Move the ground down 1000’. • “High finish.” • 500-1000’ minimum finish altitude. • Any lower, you get distance points only. • Followed by normal downwind, base, final.

12. Mc3 Mc0 Finish Ex - Critical zone Pattern, Land High finish removes coffin corner 3000 • Not “safety finish”: • 50’ is not enough. 500’ min. • Cannot give speed pts for rolling finish • Crucial: don’t press on from critical zone • “But I made it back” = “But I got so close” 2500 2000 Glide home 1500 Stop, thermal, look at fields 1000 500 0 10 5 0

13. Con: Fun! High finish: pro and con • Pro: High finish should sharply reduce stall/spin, low finish, near airport crashes, midair in pattern. • Only truly Bozo crashes left, not attention overload. • High finish makes no difference to the race.

14. High finish alternatives 1. Post-finish aerobatics box. Do that loop. Do an outside loop. Strafe the spectators! 2. Pass 1000’ 2 miles out, then finish low over the airport. Pros: -High energy finish, -Eliminates close-in crashes, -Preserves fun low finish. Cons: -Retains potential for low finish crackup, -Potential for collision in “pattern.” Low fast finish is fun. Is white-knuckle final glide really that fun? 3. Do nothing. Rely on safety talks, pilot judgment. Pro: Retains “fun” of low (over ground) final glides. Con: Will result in injured and killed pilots, totaled gliders.

15. 1984 TX 1-26 Serious Stall/spin 360s at 100’ after 6 hr flight. Outlandings -- still #1 1985 Sugarbush Ventus Fatal Stall/spin outlanding 1986 Hobbs ASW20 Serious Stall/spin; hit power lines 1988 CA ASW20 Serious Stall spin outlanding. Water still in 1991 NY? 1-26 Serious Stall/spin, landing on road 1993 Turf 1-35 Substantial Avoiding powerlines. Heading to airport, “found sink” 1997 Harris Hill ASW19 Total Stall/spin outlanding. “Pilot overload” 1999 Hobbs Ventus Substantial Stall spin while avoiding wires 1983 Bishop LS3 Fatal Wind shift, lee side turbulence 1991 PA ASW24 Substantial “wind shift” “donwdraft” in trees on ridge 1995 Newcastle  Total? In trees on ridge; strong x wind 1995 Newcastle In trees on ridge; strong x wind 1986 VT LS4 Fatal Total Seen 15 mi out circling to clear ridge 2000 Mifflin  Ventus Missed ridge transition, in trees 1985 Montague LS3 Fatal Strong winds. Cause unknown 1997 Montague Nimbus3 Substantial Hit wires. 4 miles from intended strip 1997 VT Pik 20E Substantial “Sink put me in trees on final” “pressure of circumstances” 1991 Cal city Ventus Serious Low slow approach to Mojave, hit berm 1995 Minden Pik 30E Serious “In process of extending engine” 1. Stall/spin 2. Terrain impact 3. Miscellaneous

16. Outlandings Patterns in outlanding crashes 1. Stall spin. • 2. Attention overload, long setup to stall/spin. • Bad weather – high winds, storms, etc. • Last minute decisions, last minute thermaling, last minute field selection/changes. • On way to, and near airports! “Unexpected sink.” What can you do to avoid these crashes? 1. Understand computers, safety altitudes!

17. Mostly Sometimes Rarely, but good terrain Final Glide Calculation Mc=3 30:1 Mc=0, 40:1 Computer assumes lift = sink. Appropriate for final glide

18. ! Safety altitude calculation Mc=3 30:1 Mc=0, 40:1 Never! • Moral: the only time you need it, the lift = sink calculation fails!

19. Safety altitudes Safety calculation should be much more conservative than final glide calculation – assume sink all the way! Alps: 20:1! “Worst case” not “average.” Instrument makers: separate glide (20:1, 100fpm sink) for alternates. You/me: Understand the trap, keep a large margin! No “headed to airport, found ‘unexpected’ sink!” • What else can you do? • Plan ahead for high stress decisions. • Recognize the beginning of the sequence. • You will be tempted! • If you’re in trouble, likely everyone else is too!

20. Outlanding crashes – what can rules and procedures do? Less flying in bad weather, terrain 1. PST, AAT, MAT 2. All AST to be MAT – come home for speed points. 3. No fixed minimum time; distance points instead PST Objections later 4. Field guides; pictures, approaches, obstacles, not just useless GPS. Fly from known field to known field. 5. Move the ground down! Count you as landed out at X (500’? 1000’?) (Over valley floor). Yes, have dug out. Many crashes have circling first! Point: gives incentive to become conservative at 1,500’, not 500’ 6. How to end race? Not “Sorry, the gate is open.”

21. Mid-air collisions

22. Mid-air collisions • Many different kinds, situations for midair. • #1 issue for racing pilots – important bar to participation? What can you do? • Listen to safety talks! • Thermal entry, exit, sharing is not easy. • No wild pull up/push in flight. • Be like Karl. • Somebody is “the other guy!” Is it you?

23. Midair collisions – what can rules/procedures do? 1. Change rules to reduce gaggling/leeching/start gate roulette a. Reduce incentive to do it (race structure) b. Reduce ability to do it (start procedure) 2. PST/MAT/AAT - PST reduces GLS - MAT AAT? • Issues: • Unpopular with some pilots – important! • PST MAT AAT collision worries? No data yet. • Does affect race. “Race” vs. “Contest” • If you like “race,” don’t complain about the gaggles!

24. Midair collisions – what can rules do? 3. Starts: PEV, multiple start points, no call-back Pro: Reduce leeching of specific pilots. Con: Reduce roulette/gaggle? Impedes ability to leech, not incentive to leech. May still gaggle at 4950’, spoilers open, watching starts Adds luck factor 4. Increase incentive to be “lone wolf.” Then everyone leaves early! a) Reduce devaluation when there are lots of late starts. b) Point bonuses for early starts, start order?

25. Midair collisions – wild ideas that just might work 5. Allow team flying, as in bicycle races. Pro: A team can leave early; break away from gaggle (worlds) Con: Many. New pilots? • 6. Allow thermal detectors • Will be made, cheap, good display for lookout. • Will not make soaring easy, any more than the vario did. • Will end gaggling, leeching, start gate roulette. • Will increase landout safety. 7. Challenge: change AST so gaggle/leech/roulette is not attractive? Spread out more? • 1 mile radius/FAI turnpoints for AST • Smaller races, heats?

26. Bottom line • Landouts, low finish energy are still the biggest source of crashes. • Most crashes in high stress / attention overload situations. • Rules: Simple steps can substantially cut fatality, serious injury rate, • by keeping pilots away from those situations. • High finish for speed points. • MAT AAT PST, no min time. • Reduce devaluation for late starts. • Field mapping at popular sites. • …..Let’s think of some more! • Proper balance depends on race. More for regionals! • Philosophy • Incentives vs. fairness (e.g. close-in landing, rolling finish) • “Race” vs. “Contest” • “Trust pilot judgment” vs. “keep race away from fire” • Attitude towards crashes. No more Bozo, alien abductions. • Apply the Bowman lesson to the rest of racing.

27. What can you do? • Safety psychology; thought patterns that lead to bad decisions. • Listen hard to Charlie Spratt speech. • Mentally prepare, visualize high stress/quick decision situations. • Recognize beginning of pattern that leads to trouble. • Landout crash sequence. • Close – in; slow finish sequence. • Recognize “bad thoughts” – high stress, attention narrowing, subconscious flying the plane. • Make your own decisions – what’s safe for the big boys is not necessarily safe for you & me. • Few will be remembered as fast. Many can be remembered as safe. • Tell the rules committee how you feel! Objective……