The Coventry Economy Key Information

1. The Coventry EconomyKey Information Tom Evans Corporate Research August 2011 www.facts-about-coventry.com

2. Outline Context • Demographics • Deprivation in Coventry Current economic picture in Coventry • Productivity and growth – Gross Value Added • Structure of the Coventry economy • Enterprise – new business formation • Labour Market – Employment, Jobseekers, Worklessness and Job Vacancies • Skills • Public sector job losses – Is the private sector absorbing the losses? - BBC research All data is current and up to date as of August 2011

3. The next update of this information is due in July 2012 ▼ indicates Coventry rate lower than comparator ▲ indicates Coventry rate higher than comparator ● indicates Coventry rate no different to comparator BME = Black Minority Ethnic (non White British) *General Fertility Rate = number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15–44

4. The next update of this information is due in 2013/2014 Deprivation in Coventry See map on Facts about Coventry See report on Facts about Coventry • Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010. This uses data from 2008 so measures deprivation just before the recession hit • Coventry became slightly more deprived between 2005 and 2008 relative to other local authorities • 50th most deprived local authority (56th in 2005) • Income and employment deprivation most stark in Coventry, no change in this type of deprivation • Deprivation pattern within Coventry is broadly the same. Familiar picture, concentrated in the North East • Canley in particular became relatively more deprived, as did Tile Hill North and Radford • Stoke Aldermoor and North Holbrooks became less deprived, as did NDC area, modestly Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010, Department for Communities and Local Government

5. Gross Value Added • Gross Value Added (GVA) is a high level indicator of the general heath of the local economy. It measures the amount Coventry contributes to the UK economy • GVA per head is used as an approximate measure of productivity, total output per job in the area • GVA per head in Coventry in 2008 was £18,988, about 10% lower than the national average • In 1995 GVA per head was higher than the national average but has grown since then by only 56% compared to 87% nationally • GVA per head is higher in Coventry than in areas considered most appropriate to compare with (CIPFA statistical neighbours), see the charts below Source: Office for National Statistics

6. The next update of this information is due end of December 2011 Gross Value Added per head

7. The next update of this information is due end of December 2011 Gross Value Added per head

8. Employment by industry • The largest broad sector of the Coventry economy is public administration, education and health which employs approximately 45,500 people in Coventry , almost a third (32%) of all employment • Manufacturing has become an increasingly smaller part of the economy in recent years and now makes up 11% of employment, about 16,200 people • ‘Business services’ (banking, finance and insurance etc.) has employed an increasing number of people in the city since 1998, increasing from 14% to 19% of all employment (England 21%) • 58% of employees work for SMEs (business with less 200 employees) compared to an England average of 69%

9. The next update of this information is due end of December 2011 Employment by industry – Coventry workplaces Source: ONS business register and employment survey 2009, NOMIS

10. The next update of this information is due end of December 2011 Employment by industry Source: Annual Business Inquiry 1998-2008, NOMIS

11. The next update of this information is due in December 2011 New business formation • 850 new business registered in Coventry in 2009, down from around 1,150 in 2007 and 2008. 34 per 10,000 people compared to the England average of 50, a third lower than the national average • Due to recession there has been around a 10% fall nationally and amongst similar metropolitan areas • Fall of 25% in business formation in Coventry, significantly greater fall than other similar areas • Why? Not sure but - Coventry has relatively more public sector employment, less self employment and relatively fewer SMEs than England and West Midlands county. • Could be a statistical blip, the 2010 data (released at the end of the year) will show if this is a sustained trend

12. The next update of this information is due in December 2011 Business formation Source: ONS Business Demography data 2009 (new source)

13. Labour MarketJan – Dec 2010 data • There are an estimated 206,900 people of working age resident in Coventry (aged 16 – 64); two thirds of the total population • About two thirds (66%) of working age residents of Coventry are in employment. Lower than the national average of 71% • The employment rate of 66% is down from 71% in 2007 before the recession; 7,000 fewer in employment • About 137,000 people are in employment, 12,500 are unemployed (looking for a job in last 4 weeks, more than just JSA claimant) and 57,500 people are economically inactive (e.g. long term sick, full time student, looking after family / home etc.) • Those claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance make up the majority of those considered unemployed although some don’t claim JSA • Many of those claiming other out of work benefits (IB / ESA, lone parents on IS) are considered to be economically inactive Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Jan 2010 – Dec 2010, NOMIS

14. The next updates of this information are due in October 2011 and January 2012 Labour Market

15. Unemployment • 10,750 claimants of Jobseeker’s Allowance, 5.1% of the working age population (July 2011). Peaked at 11,570, 5.6% in October 2009 • 3.9% across UK, 4.8% across WM region and 2.6% in Warwickshire • This is an increase (7%) on last year (July 2010), broadly the same as the national and regional trend. Warwickshire has experienced a fall of 3% • Slowly increasing numbers (seasonally adjusted) of claimants between December 2010 and June 2011 in Coventry. Between June 2011 and July 2011 there was a significant increase in the number of JSA claimants in Coventry from 10,250 to 10,750. This was also the case overall nationally but the scale of the increase was greater in Coventry • Gap between UK and Coventry narrowed marginally since the recession, gap between Coventry and Warwickshire is widening • 30,500 people claiming all out of work benefits, a worklessness rate of 14.7% of the working age population (q1 2011) (All Mets 15.8%, England 11.9%)

16. The next updates of this information are due:14th September, 12th October, 16th November, 14th December Unemployment trends

17. The next updates of this information are due: 14th September, 12th October, 16th November, 14th December Unemployment - JSA See map report on Facts about Coventry Source: Jobseeker’s Allowance claimant count, ONS, NOMIS

18. The next update of this information is due: 16th November Total worklessness See report on Facts about Coventry Source: DWP Work and Pensions longitudinal study, NOMIS

19. Job Vacancies • 2,938 vacancies reported to Jobcentre Plus during July 2011. This represents only a proportion of all job vacancies, about 40-45% • Slightly more vacancies in Coventry than in July in previous years, annual total up 2%. No significant annual change in Warwickshire • There were more vacancies reported in July in Coventry than there were in any of the previous 3 months. This is also the case overall nationally • In July 2011 there were just under 4 Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants chasing every reported vacancy in Coventry, broadly reflecting the national and regional average. In Warwickshire there were just over 2 job seekers per vacancy • In May 2011 the ratio was 6 per reported vacancy. The ratio has fallen since then, despite the fact that there are more Jobseekers now, because there were more vacancies reported in July than in May

20. The next updates of this information are due: 14th September, 12th October, 16th November, 14th December Job Vacancies Source: Jobcentre Plus vacancies, Department for Work and Pensions, NOMIS

21. The labour market mismatch • On average there were 4 people on JSA per JCP vacancy • In addition there are generally 2,500 - 5,000 people looking for work not on JSA benefits • Jobseekers looking for work in management or professional roles appear to face less competition with 1 - 3 claimants looking for such work per vacancy compared to an average of 4 • Higher skills generally better balanced but many start own business / do not need to sign on • The biggest mismatch was for work in sales and customer service occupations, administrative and secretarial occupations and elementary occupations which had higher than average claimants per vacancy • Many sales and personal service jobs are temporary – short term – sectors with high turnover rates

22. The next updates of this information are due: 14th September; 12th October, 16th November, 14th December The labour market mismatch

23. Skills • It is estimated that 29% of working age residents of Coventry have higher level qualifications, those equivalent to or higher than a degree. Similar to regional and national average; higher than the West Midlands city region average • 14% have no qualifications. Higher than the national average, lower than the West Midlands city region average

24. The next update of this information is due in July 2012 Skills *Birmingham, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Telford & Wrekin, Walsall & Wolverhampton Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Jan 2010 – Dec 2010, NOMIS

25. Is the private sector absorbing public sector job losses? • More jobs in-sourced than out-sourced (39 & 18) • Businesses surveyed: • Fewer worried now about impact of cuts, but still uncertainty for future • Only 6% (4 orgs) considering delivering services traditionally in public sector • Fewer orgs recruited Jan-Mar, but more had recruited from ex-public sector employees • Hence – no evidence that jobs are being absorbed yet

26. www.bbc.co.uk/coventryatwork