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A View from Below the Waterline

A View from Below the Waterline. Gary Phillips, Director, TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity for the OneSAF Users Conference. Models are mathematical approximations of the real world. Real World. Model Representation. They are not a duplication of the real world !.

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A View from Below the Waterline

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  1. A View from Below the Waterline Gary Phillips, Director, TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity for the OneSAF Users Conference

  2. Models are mathematical approximations of the real world Real World Model Representation They are not a duplication of the real world ! Critical decisions are made based on “insights” from approximations of the real world.

  3. “Making Sausage” Algorithms Results Data 1101010010010011101110010101011111010100 + = It all has to be as “right” as possible to produce results that are usable for the intended purpose. Does the result reflect our experiences in the real world ?

  4. How Right Does It Have to Be? • For training the skills learned using M&S must be directly transferable to the real world. • The larger the delta from a duplication of the physics and human factors present in the real world the less value the M&S has a training tool. • Properly represented physics are less important the higher the echelon being trained. • For combat developments the results must be representative of likely outcomes or provide relative values for decisions. • Accurate physical models and the algorithms that define the interaction of entities are critical.

  5. Representation of Irregular Warfare • Relationships and complexity • Structural complexity – task is complex, “mechanical” • Interactive complexity – acting causes changes, alters complexity, “organic” Simply putting entities in “man-dresses” using AK-47s and IEDS in a simulation is not Irregular Warfare.

  6. The Challenge IW MCO Structural Complexity Interactive Complexity Its all about the “arrows” 1101010010010011101110010101011111010100 Love Fear Honor Duty Hate

  7. Operational Environment Variables Political Economic Military Social Infrastructure Physical Environment Information Time “Operational variables describe not only the military aspects of an operational environment but also the population’s influence on it. Joint planners analyze the operational environment in terms of six interrelated operational variables: political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure. To these variables Army doctrine adds two more: physical environment and time. As a set, these operational variables are often abbreviated as PMESII-PT.” FM 3.0

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