Carothers: comments & criticisms Determinants of Democracy? Economics & Democracy II India vs. Nigeria

1. Carothers: comments & criticisms • Determinants of Democracy? • Economics & Democracy II • India vs. Nigeria • This week (tentative): Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday, 12:30-3:30 • Winter break: email • Papers • Final papers discussion

2. Caroters (i) “The war on terrorism has hurt America's status as a model of democracy and weakened America's credibility as a prodemocratic actor.” (ii) “Democracy is in a strict sense about political values, choices, and processes; it does not per se provide answers to economic and social problems.”

3. (iii) Carothers implies that these factors combined are dangerous for a democratic country, but how could you combine them?

5. Democracy & Development • Development → Democracy (endogenous account) Democracy is endogenous to (is a creation of) development; Democracies are more likely to emerge as countries develop

6. (ii) Development sustains democracy (exogenous account) Democracies emerge forreasons other than development, but they are more likely to survive as democracies indeveloped nations (exogenous)

7. Przeworski et al., 1997, 2000 Predicting regime type (Auth. or Dem.) as a function of several independent variables: a)Economic development (per capita GNP) b)Political legacy ((i) NC/post-1945 & (ii) British legacy) c)Political history (# of past transitions to authoritarianism) d) Religious structure (% Catholic, Protestant, Muslim) e) Cleavages (ethno-linguistic & religious fractionalization) d) International political climate (% democracies in world)

9. Economic development - by far the best predictor of regime type • Per capita GNP alone correctly predicts around 78% of cases • “Everything” (per capita GNP included) correctly predicts 82% of cases

10. Dynamic model? • Predicting change/transition? • Life-expectancy of dictatorships: 20 years at $1,000 per capita GDP 15 years at $5,000 11 years at $10,000 6 years at $20,000

11. Tradeoffs? • Is it necessary to sacrifice democracy for development? • Who is better at promoting economic growth? • Democracies vs. dictatorships: moderately affluent nations ($3,000-3,500) • Similar growth rates • However…

12. (Wealthy) dictatorships: (i) use a lot of labor & (ii) pay low wages (repressing unions) (i) + (ii) → labor-intensive productivity, • higher birth rates/fertility • but shorter longevity (esp. for women)

13. (Wealthy) democracies: Grow by using labor more effectively: • slower population & labor growth rates, • higher wages • benefit more from technical progress

14. Summary • Clear, positive relationship between economic development & democracy • Some scholars argue that development increases democracy’s survivability odds (exogenous effect) • Others argue that development increases the chances of transition to democracy (exogenous effect)

15. No necessary tradeoff between economic growth and democracy • Wealthy democracies and autocracies - equally good at promoting growth • However, as a worker you are better off in a democracy • Democracy appears better than autocracy on both normative and practical grounds

16. India vs. Nigeria • What does India have that Nigeria does not? • “Resource curse”? • Oil → corruption, authoritarianism • Cultural cleavages: India vs. Nigeria • Institutions? Federalism: India vs. Nigeria (different logic) Presidentialism (Nigeria) vs. parliamentarism (India)

17. Papers • Take a look at the CD (recommended readings) • Also, take a look at online resources (APSA, Midwest, Kellog) • Do some web search Writing: • Passive voice vs. active voice (exercise) • “I” vs. “we”