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The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emission reduction Case of Finland

The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emission reduction Case of Finland Antti Lehtilä, Ilkka Savolainen & Sanna Syri VTT Processes Energy Systems http://www.climtech.vtt.fi The CLIMTECH Programme (1999–2003) General purposes:

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The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emission reduction Case of Finland

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  1. The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emission reductionCase of Finland Antti Lehtilä, Ilkka Savolainen & Sanna SyriVTT ProcessesEnergy Systems http://www.climtech.vtt.fi

  2. The CLIMTECH Programme (1999–2003) • General purposes: • Investigate the needs for technology developmentrelated to greenhouse gas emission reduction • Disseminate information on technology, promote communication between industry and research community • Main subject areas: • Renewable energy and distributed energy production • Energy efficiency in production and end-use • Non-CO2 greenhouse gases • Capture and utilization of CO2 • Development of models and systems • Commercialization • Final phase included an integrating scenario study based on the assessments of individual projects: • The role of technology in GHG reduction until 2030

  3. Overall structure of the energy system model

  4. Scenarios studied • Climate change is reality – emissions have to be reduced • Focus of the scenarios: • The time beyond Kyoto until 2030 • All six greenhouse gases of the Kyoto protocol • Potential and cost-efficiency of advanced technologies • Emission reduction targets in 2030: • Base 20% below Kyoto target, variants 10% and 30% • Kyoto scenario with constant Kyoto target • Two technology futures: • Conventional technology development • Optimistic (or boosted) development • Sources for technology projections: • Projections of the CLIMTECH technology studies • VTT’s Energy Visions 2030 for Finland

  5. Examples of technology projections for electricity generation

  6. Projections for climate change impacts • Based on study made under the CLIMTECH programme • HadCM3 general circulation model • IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2 • The impacts in 2030 were based on projected changes between periods 1961–1990 and 2021–2050

  7. Ceasing growth in primary energy consumption, CO2-neutral energy becoming dominant

  8. Increasing diversification in both the sources and uses of bioenergy

  9. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources in key role

  10. First steps into hydrogen economywithin transportation

  11. Development of greenhouse gas emissionsin the Kyoto and 20% reduction scenarios

  12. Contribution of various technologies to emission reductions in theOptimistic scenarios in 2030

  13. Direct cost impact of emission reduction

  14. Conclusions • Technology development can significantly reduceemission reduction costs • Early R&D investments yield largest long-term benefits • Bioenergy and wind technologies focal in Finland • Promoting the use of new technology equally important • Benefits from R&D can be highly multiplicative: • Cost savings in domestic emission reduction • Good prospects for increasing technology exports • Improved balance of trade in emission allowances – further boost in domestic technology market • Substantial reductions in other air pollutants

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