Greenhouse gas emission scenarios for agriculture in Finland

1. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios for agriculture in Finland UNFCCC Workshop on Emissions Projections from Annex I Parties, 6-8.9.2004, Wissenschaftszentrum, Bonn, Germany Paula Perälä, Heikki Lehtonen MTT Agrifood Research Finland paula.perala@mtt.fi;heikki.lehtonen@mtt.fi

2. Background • Previous agricultural scenarios developed in 2001, presented in Finland´s Third National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • No major changes in agricultural policy since the previous emission scenarios • Development of emissions in line with the previously projeted emissions • Process of updating previous scenarios is under way

3. Updating of agricultural emission scenarios • Implementation and review of National Climate Strategy • New reporting guidelines for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry-> CO2 emissions from agricultural soils currently included under Agriculture but are now to be reported under Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry • Coordination: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry • Calculations: MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research, Environmental Research • With Measures-scenario, With Additional Measures-scenario • Emission scenarios up to 2025

4. Methodology for creating agricultural emission scenarios • Policy scenarios: With measures, base scenario: Follows Agenda 2000 reform With additional measures, CAP reform-scenario: Follows the EU agricultural policy reform agreed in June 2003 • Emission scenarios-combination of two models: MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research: The agricultural sector model DREMFIA-> dynamic recursive optimisation model simulating changes in agricultural production and prices MTT Agrifood Research Finland: Model used for estimating annual greenhouse gas emissions in Finland-> emissions reported to the UNFCCC and European Commission in national greenhouse gas inventory

5. Spatial price equilibrium model drives changes in production and prices • The agricultural sector model DREMFIA:dynamic, recursive optimisation model (maximises consumer and producer surplus), includes 18 production region, most important products, includes 18 different dairy products, excludes horticulture, sheep and horses • Outputs (activity data for the greenhouse gas emission scenarios): land use, animal production, use of feed, fertilisation, crop yield response; milk yield response; farm investments; endogenous domestic product prices • Exogenous input prices; absolute production volume is uncertain, but changes between the outcomes of policy scenarios are more robust

6. Model for calculating agricultural emission scenarios • Excel-spreadsheet model developed at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, under further development at MTT Agrifood Research Finland • Currently includes CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation, CH4 and N2O emissions from manure management and N2O emissions from agricultual soils • Emissions are calculated according to IPCC guidelines • Uses the results of the DREMFIA-model as an input

7. Model for calculating agricultural emission scenarios • Main drivers are animal numbers, milk production per dairy cow, the amount of syhthetic fertiliser sold annually and crop yields • IPCC default emission factors used • Expert judgement and linear interpolation/extrapolation used for estimating the development of some parameters, eg. animal numbers not included into DREMFIA-model, development of animal weight

8. Further development • Models should be developed further in order to better fit together, eg. all the most important animal categories and crop species should be included • Process for calculating emission scenarios should be included into the National System for making greenhouse gas inventories • Models should be further developed in order to calculate projected CO2 emissions from agricultural soils according to new IPCC guidelines for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry • Use of these scenarios for the purposes of follow up implementation of National Climate Strategy