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SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010

SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010 . Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global. Want a copy of the presentation? Have questions about the presentation?. bobby@str.com www.strglobal.com 615.824.8664 x3321.

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SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010

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  1. SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010 Bobby BowersSmith Travel Research / STR Global

  2. Want a copy of the presentation? Have questions about the presentation? bobby@str.com www.strglobal.com 615.824.8664 x3321

  3. Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date

  4. Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010 2.9% -1.7% -1.1% - 4.8% - 6.9% 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

  5. Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010 0.1% -4.5% -3.4% -4.7% -7.4% -6.8% -9.6%

  6. Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010 - 11.5% -10.5% -16.8% 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

  7. Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S.Key Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

  8. Chain Scales

  9. Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton Upscale – Cambria, Courtyard, Hilton Garden Inn Midscale with F&B – Ramada, Holiday Inn, Best Western Midscale no F&B – Comfort Inn, Fairfield Inn, H.I. Express Economy – Econolodge, Days Inn, Red Roof STR Chain ScalesSelected Brands by Category

  10. Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

  11. Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

  12. San Diego

  13. 464 hotels / 58k rooms 310 rooms under construction - 0.5% $1.6 billion annual room revenue 41% room revenue - Downtown 41% room revenue – Luxury / Upper Up 2009 ADR fell 20.2% - # 6 among top 25 San DiegoKey Market Facts

  14. San DiegoKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date

  15. San DiegoWeekday / Weekend Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD Weekends = Friday / Saturday

  16. San Diego – Luxury, Upper Upscale, Upper Tier IndependentsTransient / Group - Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

  17. San DiegoKey Indicators - Percent ChangeMay 1 – 15, 2010

  18. San DiegoRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010 2.8% -0.3% -7.8% -8.4% 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

  19. San DiegoOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010 -3.0% -3.7% -11.4% -8.2% -11.9%

  20. San DiegoRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010 - 14.6% -21.2% 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

  21. San DiegoRevPAR - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010 2008 2009

  22. San DiegoOccupancy - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010 2008 2009

  23. San DiegoAverage Daily Rate - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010 2008 2009

  24. Key 15 MarketsRevPar Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas

  25. Key 15 MarketsOccupancy Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas

  26. Key 15 MarketsADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas

  27. San Diego Chain Scales - Revenue Share (%)Twelve Months Ending March 2010 Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion

  28. San Diego - Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent Change2010 April YTD

  29. San Diego Sub Markets - Revenue Share (%)Twelve Months Ending April 2010 Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion

  30. San Diego Sub MarketsOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

  31. San Diego Sub MarketsOccupancy PercentApril 2010 YTD

  32. San Diego – Sub MarketsAverage Daily RateApril 2010 YTD

  33. Projections

  34. 20092010F2011F Real GDP -2.4% +3.2% +3.1% CPI -0.4% +2.0% +1.9% Corporate Profits -3.8% +19.4% +8.1 % Disp Personal Income +0.9% +1.3% +2.6% Unemployment Rate 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators – May 2010

  35. Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Prior Year April 2010 April 2009 Change % Chg In Construction 77,404 170,242 -92,838 -54.5% “Planned” Pipeline 289,676 363,326 -73,650 -20.3% Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

  36. Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeFull Year 2009 Actual & 2010 / 2011 Forecast

  37. San Diego, CA Market Supply & Demand Outlook 2008-2010F Annual vs. Prior Year

  38. San Diego, CA Market Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Outlook 2008-2010F Annual vs. Prior Year

  39. San DiegoADR Percent Change vs. U.S. Inflation

  40. Value is King – What’s distinctive about your product? Performance trough likely past Supply growth slowing Demand slowly improving Pricing conditions improving Moderate improvement 2010 Meaningful growth anticipated 2011 Takeaways

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