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Dr. Popi KONIDARI Head of Climate Change Unit of KEPA

Using the AMS method to evaluate the policy framework for potential CDM projects in the BSEC countries. Dr. Popi KONIDARI Head of Climate Change Unit of KEPA. Structure. Introduction Review of policy framework in BSEC countries for potential Clean Development Mechanism projects

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Dr. Popi KONIDARI Head of Climate Change Unit of KEPA

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  1. Using the AMS method to evaluate the policy framework for potential CDM projects in the BSEC countries Dr. Popi KONIDARI Head of Climate Change Unit of KEPA National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  2. Structure • Introduction • Review of policy framework in BSEC countries for potential Clean Development Mechanism projects • Description of AMS method • Application • Conclusions National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  3. Russia Ukraine Moldova Romania Serbia Bulgaria Georgia Azerbaijan Albania Armenia Greece Turkey Introduction National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  4. Hosting CDM projects Prerequisites for the country • Ratification of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • Establishment of a Designated National Authority (DNA) to approve CDM project proposals • Criteria for approval of CDM projects • Issue Letters of Approval for CDM projects • CDM: Clean Development Mechanism • UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  5. Hosting CDM projects Requirements • National reports with climate change and GHG emission data • Participation in regional and national climate change mitigation and adaptation programs • Cooperation in climate change technology transfer and capacity building programs National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  6. Albania • Ratification: UNFCCC (3.10.1994) and Kyoto (16.12.2004) • Establishment of DNA • Climate Change Unit of the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Administration • No information about approval criteria • No registered CDM projects • No GHG emission reduction target • Priorities • RES, energy sector, waste management sector, LULUCF • Memorandum of Understanding • Italy and Denmark • World Bank Bio-carbon fund, Austrian Development Assistance National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  7. Armenia (1/2) • Ratification: UNFCCC (14.5.1993) and Kyoto (26.12.2002) • Establishment of DNA • Ministry of Nature Protection • Typical CDM approval criteria • 10 Registered CDM projects • 8 hydro, 1 landfill gas, 1 methane avoidance • No GHG emission reduction target National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  8. Armenia (2/2) • Two main policy instruments • Decision No N-974 “Implementation of CDM” • Degree of Minister of Nature Protection No N-274 “Establishing Procedure of Submittal of Project Design Documents under CDM’ • Memorandum of Understanding • Denmark • UNDP MDG carbon Facility • Priorities • Energy efficiency, RES, waste management, afforestation, reforestation, industrial processes, gas supply system National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  9. Azerbaijan • Ratification: UNFCCC (6.5.95) and Kyoto (6.05.2005) • Establishment of DNA • Climate Change and Ozone Centre of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources • No information about approval criteria • 3 Registered CDM projects • 2 Fossil fuel switch, 1 hydro • No GHG emission reduction target • No legislative framework • Νο Memorandum of Understanding • Priorities • Not specified National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  10. Georgia • Ratification: UNFCCC (29.7.94) and Kyoto (16.6.99) • Establishment of DNA • Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources • 10 Registered projects • 1 fugitive, 8 hydro, 1 landfill gas • No GHG emission reduction target • No legislative framework • Memorandum of Understanding • Denmark • Priorities • Hydro power plants National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  11. Moldova • Ratification: UNFCCC (16.3.95) and Kyoto (22.04.2003) • Establishment of DNA • Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources • 6 Registered CDM projects • 3 EE service, 1 fossil fuel switch, 1 landfill gas, 1 reforestation • No GHG emission reduction target • One policy instrument • Government Resolution Nr. 1574/26.12.03 • Memorandum of Understanding • Denmark • Carbon Fund • Priorities • RES National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  12. Serbia • Ratification: UNFCCC (10.06.01) Kyoto (17.01.08) • Establishment of DNA • Under preparation • No registered projects • No GHG emission reduction target • No legislative framework • Memorandum of Understanding • None • Priorities • Energy efficiency, RES, CHP, fuel switching National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  13. Turkey • Ratification: UNFCCC (24.02.04) and Kyoto (26.08.09) • No registered projects • No GHG emission reduction target • No legislative framework • Priorities • Energy efficiency, RES National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  14. Method AMS • Multi-criteria analysis method • Combination of three standard methods • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Multi-Atribute Utility Theory (MAUT) • Simple Multi-Attribute Ranking Technique (SMART) National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  15. Criteria-tree • Hierarchy • Set of three criteria and eleven sub-criteria • Environmental performance • Political acceptability • Feasibility of implementation National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  16. Weight coefficients • Usage of AHP calculated values • Based on preferences from policy makers, researchers, target groups • Recalculation of values is supported • Consistency test • Two indices • Saaty • Pelaez-Lamata National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  17. Assignment of grades (1/3) • Linear function y = ax+b, MAUT approach • a, b solution of system • requirements y =100 when xmax and y = 0 when xmin • y =100 when best performance • y = 0 when lowest performance • Normalized grades, SMART approach • Absence of data to form function • Decision maker uses scale from 0 to 10 National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  18. Assignment of grades (2/3) • DM’s grades mi converted to grades of MAUT scale • Un-normalized grade • 2.51 is used instead of 2 (SMART method) because 2.51 solution of equation • Normalized grade National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  19. Assignment of grades (3/3) • Grade of criterion • Sum of products between weight coefficients of sub-criteria and respective grade (MAUT or SMART procedure) • Total grade • Same procedure National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  20. Application • CDM in BSEC countries • Usage of Clim-AMS software National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  21. Data and assessments • Data from UNEP – RISO Centre (September 2009) • Number of registered projects • Amount of kCERs • Variety of projects (at validity or registered) • Assessments based on official reports regarding the national CDM status (Energy View of BSEC Countries, 2009) National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  22. AMS Results National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  23. Types of projects • Comparative analysis • Albania – Energy efficiency • Armenia – Hydro • Azerbaijan – Fossil fuel switch • Georgia – Hydro • Moldova – Energy efficiency National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  24. Conclusions • Climate change challenges • Introduction of targets • GHG emission reduction • Renewable energy sources share in final energy use • Energy efficiency standards • Increase capacity building • Improve data dissemination National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  25. Thank you National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

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