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CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES TRUMAN-DEWEY RACE - 1948 EFFECTIVE BARNSTORMING 1948 NOBODY LIKED TRUMAN!
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TRUMAN-DEWEY RACE - 1948 EFFECTIVE BARNSTORMING
NOBODY LIKED TRUMAN! • Truman was a nobody from Missouri who’d become Pres. after FDR died. He’d dropped the atomic bomb and started the Cold War, Marshall Plan, Korean War, etc. He had none of FDR’s charisma, polish or sophistication. • Thomas Dewey was considered a shoo-in. He was a popular Republican Governor of New York, had been a tough prosecutor. Movie-star looks. • Considered the election his to lose.
MORE TROUBLE! • Truman’s Democratic party was splintered • Strom Thurmond ran for “Dixiecrats” – anti-integration Southern Democrats outraged at Truman’s civil rights stands • Henry Wallace ran on Progressive ticket – left wing Democrats and Socialists who didn’t like his handling of a steel strike
Truman’s campaign • “Do you want to be called a whistle-stop or do you want to be called a town? • Legend of “Give ‘em hell Harry” • Dewey didn’t campaign hard; came across as cocky and arrogant
WORKING THE PRIMARIES - JFK • Traditionally, candidates were chosen by party leaders, often in “smoke-filled rooms” with behind-the-scenes deals.
1960 • Multiple Democratic candidates – Lyndon Johnson (Texas), Hubert Humphrey (Minnesota), Stuart Symington (Missouri), John F. Kennedy (Massachusetts), Adlai Stevenson (Illinois)
Worries about his youth and religion eased by primary victories
2008 – Capture the Caucuses • Obama vs. Clinton, Edwards, etc. • Hillary Clinton considered frontrunner from Day 1 – “The Inevitable” next Prez.
Obama goes after wins in small caucus states-proves he can win
Uses Internet techniques like meetups pioneered by Howard Dean in 2004 Enthusiasm of followers, esp. youth, erodes Hillary’s support, her campaign falters.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.htmlhttp://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
Obama captures the big bucks and support, locks up the nomination
OTHER STRATEGIES • Ticket balancing – geographic, ethnic, etc. • Select an “omnibus candidate” – preferably a popular general • Name recognition • Master the news cycle. • The “low road” – negative campaigning
Manipulative Techniques • STRAW MAN • GLITTERING GENERALITIES • BANDWAGON • CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENTS • APPEAL TO FEAR • DECK-STACKING • “GOTCHA” – out of context quotes