Natural Gas Supply Outlook

THE BUSINESS RESEARCH COMPANY Natural Gas Supply Outlook

Index • Natural Gas Supply Outlook • Introduction • Notes on the Scope of the Report • Geographical Scope • Chronological Scope • The Natural Gas Supply Chain • The Natural Gas Supply Chain In The North American Market • Geographies • Price • Processing • Price • Shipping • Price • Distribution • Marketing • The Natural Gas Supply Chain In The European Market • Production • Geographies The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

Index • Price • Processing • Price • Shipping • Price • Distribution • Price • Marketing • The Natural Gas Supply Chain In China • Production • Processing • Shipping • Distribution • Price • Gas Market Scenario Forecasts to 2025 Based on Different Economic Scenarios • Natural Gas Supply Chain in the North American Market To 2025 The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

Index • North American Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Medium Economic Scenario • North American Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Positive Economic Scenario • North American Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Negative Economic Scenario • Natural Gas Supply Chain in the European Market To 2025 • Europe Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Stable Economic Scenario • Europe Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Positive Economic Scenario • Europe Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Negative Economic Scenario • Natural Gas Supply Chain in China Market in 2025 • China Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Stable Economic Scenario • China Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Positive Economic Scenario • China Natural Gas Supply Chain to 2025 – Negative Economic Scenario • Appendix • Research Methodology • Chronological Scope • Quantification The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

Index • Terms • Abbreviations • Currencies • Primary Research • Research Enquiries • The Business Research Company The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

Figures • Figure 1: Historical Brent Crude Oil Spot Price($ Per Barrel) • Figure 2: Historical Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price($ per Million BTU) • Figure 3: World Dry Natural Gas Production By Region, Trillion Cubic Feet 1980-2010 • Figure 4: Gas Supply Chain • Figure 5: Natural Gas Processing Plants By Capacity In The US • Figure 6: Natural Gas Transmission Path In The US • Figure 7: Natural Gas Pipeline Network In The US • Figure 8: US Natural Gas Imports, Exports And Net Imports 1996-2014 • Figure 9: Price Differential Between US Natural Gas Imports And Exports • Figure 10: US Import And Export Locations • Figure 11: Natural Gas Prices Through The Supply Chain In The US, 2012 • Figure 12: Natural Gas Distribution Segments • Figure 13: LNG Infrastructure And Underground Storage Facilities In Europe • Figure 14: Pipeline Network In The Western European Region • Figure 15: Europe’s Imports Of Natural Gas By Source • Figure 16: Development of European Gas Hubs • Figure 17 : Evolution Of Marketed Gas Price By Segment During 2008-12 • Figure 18 : Proven Geological Reserves In China, 1961-2009 • Figure 19 : Gas Resources In China The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

Figures • Figure 20 : China National Gas Production 2007-2013, tcf • Figure 21 : Gas Infrastructure In China • Figure 22 : China’s Natural Gas Imports By Source • Figure 23 : China Natural Gas Consumption, 2007-2013, tcf • Figure 24 : End-Users Gas Prices In Selected Chinese Cities, 2011 • Figure 25: US Production of Shale Gas Projections To 2025 And Beyond • Figure 26 : US Natural Gas Imports and Exports To 2025 And Beyond • Figure 27: Expected Growth in Consumption of Natural Gas To 2025 And Beyond • Figure 28 : Projected Use of Natural Gas in the US Transportation Sector To 2025 And Beyond • Figure 29 : Europe's Natural Gas Supply Sources To 2025 And Beyond • Figure 30 : Natural Gas Demand Prospects in Europe To 2025 And Beyond • Figure 31 : China's Natural Gas Supply Sources To 2025 And Beyond • Figure 32 : Outlook For Natural Gas Supply In China To 2025 And Beyond • Figure 33: China’s Natural Gas Consumption Mix To 2025 And Beyond The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

Tables • Table 1 : US Proved Reserves And Changes During 2012-13 • Table 2: Natural Gas Plant Processing During 2010-14 • Table 3: Number of Gas and Gas Condensate Wells • Table 4: Natural Gas Wellhead Price • Table 5: Natural Gas Imports And Exports In The US • able 6: US Natural Gas Imports And Exports, A Comparison Between 2013 And 2014 • Table 7: Natural Gas Prices In The US From 2009 To 2014 • Table 8 : Price Of Natural Gas Delivered To Residential Consumers In Various US States • Table 9: Dry Natural Gas Production In Europe, 2009-2013, bcf • Table 10: Dry Natural Gas Consumption In Europe • Table 11: Historical Average German Import Price And UK Heren NBP Index • Table 12: China National Gas Production • Table 13 : Pipeline Tariffs in China • Table 14 : China National Gas Consumption The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

Introduction • This report deals with the Supply Chain for natural gas. • The report begins with an overview of what natural gas is, how it is formed, its characteristics, where it is found and some associated statistics. It explains the natural gas Supply Chain in outline, mentioning parts which are dealt with in detail later. • The report then deals with individual parts of the Supply Chain, in detail, in North-America, Europe and China. It covers statistics and processes that are involved in each of these markets. • The last part of the report covers expected future trends down the Supply Chain in each of these markets under different oil price scenarios over the next ten years, to the year 2025. The first scenario deals with a mean oil price of ~$90, expected progress and related outlook. The later part of the forecasting scenarios deals with a high oil price scenario (~$120) and a low oil price scenario (~$60). The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

Introduction • As this last part of the report shows, the market and the Supply Chain for natural gas are influenced by the oil price. • The first part of this report relates to the current natural gas Supply Chain in 2015. The background to the natural gas Supply Chain in 2015 is an oil and gas price as shown in the figures below. • The price of natural gas has been relatively low for the last five years, with an average price for Henry Hub natural gas of around $3.5 per million BTU ($975 cubic feet) while the price for Brent Crude oil has been relatively stable at above $100 per barrel until mid 2014 at which point it dropped dramatically. • However the fall in oil price has not had a major effect on the natural gas Supply Chain over the last year. The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

The Natural Gas Supply Chain • Natural gas is the gas formed from fossil fuels over hundreds of millions of years. This gas, in the simplest terms, is a mixture of hydrocarbons. • Natural gas is found in the earth’s crust in reservoirs. It is broadly of two types: conventional gas and unconventional gas. • Conventional gas is found in permeable reservoirs and is considered easy to extract with the help of traditional drilling methods. It is usually found along with oil in both onshore and offshore reservoirs. • Unconventional natural gas is found in the earth’s crust other than in permeable reservoirs. Unconventional gas is further classified as coal seam gas or shale gas. • Natural gas has emerged as one of the most important sources of fuel. It is easy to store and transport large amounts of natural gas in the form of a gas or a liquid. The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

The Natural Gas Supply Chain • Hence, it has also become a global commodity which is traded between regions. Natural gas is abundantly available and has a low carbon content as when compared to other fossil fuels. • Its combustion is considered cleaner than other hydrocarbons as a result of which it has become a highly used energy resource. • The image below shows the world dry natural gas production by region in trillions of cubic feet. • (Dry natural gas has had various hydrocarbons and fluids removed from the pure natural gas, a process required to bring it to pipeline quality.) The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

The Natural Gas Supply Chain In The North American Market • Production is the process by which natural gas is extracted from wells. In 2013, in North America there were about 6,300 natural gas producers . These producers are companies which range from those having a global presence to those having only a partial stake in a particular well. The globally present production companies are called “majors”. There are over 20 active majors in North America. • EIA estimated that there were a total of 354 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves in the United States as of December 31, 2013 . • The table below shows total US proved reserves and reserves changes during 2012-13 . The percentage change is calculated from unrounded numbers. The total wet natural gas reserves in North America increased to 354 trillion cubic feet in 2013 from 322.7 trillion cubic feet in 2012. The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

The Natural Gas Supply Chain In The European Market • The European Union had a total of 1.573 billion cubic meters (55.54 billion cubic feet) of proved natural gas reserves as of January 2014 . • The table below shows dry natural gas production values of the countries in the European region from 2009 to 2013 . • Europe produced a total of 9,982 billion cubic feet (bcf) of dry natural gas in 2013; with only small fluctuations, this figure changed little between 2009 and 2013. • In 2013 Norway had the highest production at 3,840 bcf followed by The Netherlands with a production of 3,052 bcf; in these countries, too, the fluctuations in output over the period 2009 to 2014 were minor. • The UK, the third largest country in Europe for natural gas production, showed a steady decline in output over the period, so that production in 2013 was about 35% lower than in 2009. The Business Research Company Copyright TBRC Business Research. All Rights Reserved.

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Natural Gas Supply Outlook