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Global Perspectives: Dollar Exchange Rates. We expect the dollar to grind higher against ... Otherwise, demand for dollar denominated securities remains strong ...
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Slide 1:U.S. & Global Economic Perspectives
Slide 2:Five Key Economic Questions For Decision Makers
Growth Inflation Interest Rates Profits The Dollar
Slide 3:Where Are We Now?
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 4:Where Are We Going?
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 5:Where Are We Going?
Source: ISM and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 6:Consumer Fundamentals
Consumer Fundamentals Point to Sharply Slower Growth Ahead
Slide 7:Consumer Spending
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 8:Consumer Sentiment
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 9:Inflation & Interest Rates
Core Inflation Monetary Policy Real Interest Rates Yield Curve Wage-Price Spiral Market Expectations
Slide 10:Core PCE Deflator
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 11:Federal Funds
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 12:Inflation Expectations
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 13:Corporate Bond Spreads
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 14:Liquidity Issues
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 15:Corporate Profits
Corporate Profits Will Continue to be Pressured by Higher Input Costs Profits Momentum Costs Revenue
Slide 16:Corporate Profits
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 17:Global Perspectives: Dollar Exchange Rates
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bloomberg LP and Wachovia Corp.
Slide 18:Global Perspectives: TIC Data
Slide 19:Benchmarking the Financial Market Correction
Slide 20:Elections
Key Elements to Watch in November Costs Revenue Spending Trade Regulation Entitlements Taxes
Wachovia Economic Outlook Weak Economic Growth will Persist for Some TimeSlide 21:Outlook Summary
Slide 22:North Carolina’s unemployment rate has spiked significantly higher in recent months and now stands almost a point higher than the national rate. Most of the recent rise has come from labor force growth, not layoffs. Industrial development remains stable in most major metropolitan areas, particularly in technology and energy related ventures. North Carolina has seen record population gains with the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham regions leading the way. With the exception of some coastal areas, the state did not experience the same rapid price appreciation during the housing boom as was seen in other parts of the country. Still, home price increases have declined and we expect a flattening going forward. New single-family activity has declined considerably from cycle highs as national builders have scaled back to bolster their balance sheets and reduce inventories.
Highlights Unemployment and Housing Cool the Economy North Carolina Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia North Carolina
Slide 23:The unemployment rate has risen sharply but it is probably as much an indication of strong labor force growth as it is an uptick in layoffs. Population growth in 2007 totaled 68,000 in the MSA and close to 80,000 in the broader CMSA, which includes emerging suburbs and employment markets in Mooresville, Denver, and Lancaster County. Charlotte’s housing market saw strong growth but was not a bubble market. Nevertheless, excesses occurred at both the lower and upper ends of the market. Single-family construction has pulled back more than 70 percent from its peak, reflecting pull backs by national builders and the effects of tighter credit. Home price growth slowed late last year and we expect price changes will be roughly flat in 2008.
Highlights Charlotte-Residential Source: OFHEO, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia North Carolina
Slide 24:Appendix
Slide 25:Monthly Economic Outlook Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary Special Reports Economic Indicators Global Economic Commentary Federal Reserve Commentary Real Estate & Housing Consumer & Retail Chief Economist List To join any of our research distribution lists please visit our website: http://www.wachovia.com/economicsemail
Distribution Lists Recent Special Commentary A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary Economics Group Publications Appendix
Slide 26:U.S. Macro Economy
Comprehensive Coverage of the U.S. Economy Monthly Economic Forecast Weekly Analysis & Outlook Timely Commentary on Daily Economic Data Releases Global Economies Macro Level Coverage of Major Foreign Economies Macro Forecasts of 11 Economies Monthly Forecasts of 19 Dollar Exchange Rates Weekly Analysis & Outlook U.S. Regional Economics Regional and MSA Level Expertise Extensive Coverage Across the Wachovia Footprint Ground level Analysis & Commentary of Local Markets Industry Coverage Across CIB Industry Groups Regular Commentary on Economic Developments by Industries Economics Group Coverage Economics Group Appendix
Slide 27:Economics Group
Wachovia Corporation Economics Group publications are distributed by Wachovia Corporation directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC, Wachovia Securities, LLC and Wachovia Securities International Limited. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wachovia does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wachovia assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. © 2008 Wachovia Corp. John E. Silvia, Ph.D. Chief Economist john.silvia@wachovia.com U.S. Macro Economy Interest Rates Monetary Policy Appendix